2011 NCAA Tournament: Rating Each Bubble Team's Chances of Making the Big Dance

It is hard to believe that Selection Sunday is just over a week away.

With what has been one of the most exciting college basketball regular seasons in recent memory, there are a number of teams that are currently fighting for their lives to make it into this year's NCAA tournament.

Schools like Baylor, Michigan State and Washington were all looked at to be locks for March Madness heading into the year, but now, with just one game to go, and then the conference tournaments, all of those schools will be forced to win some games here to close out the season.

Let's take a look at 12 teams that are currently on the bubble and rate their chances of making it to the big dance in 2011.

12. Michigan

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INDIANAPOLIS - MARCH 12: Guard Darius Morris #4 of the Michigan Wolverines controls the ball during the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament at Conseco Fieldhouse on March 12, 2010 in Indiana

Tournament Resume: [18-12 (8-9), RPI: 57, SOS: 22]

The fact that Michigan is even in this conversation is beyond impressive, considering how much talent they lost from last year's team.

Nobody expected the Wolverines to even have a winning record this season, but with one game remaining in the Big Ten schedule, Michigan has a chance to make their case for an at-large bid in the tournament.

If Michigan is able to beat Michigan State at home tomorrow, their chances will instantly improve from "maybe getting in," to "almost certainly getting in." If the Wolverines lose to MSU, they will have to win at least two games in the Big Ten tournament to be alive for a spot. That will be a hard task at hand.

Prediction: Out

11. Clemson

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BUFFALO, NY - MARCH 19: Demontez Stitt #2 of the Clemson Tigers handles the ball against the Missouri Tigers during the first round of the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tournament at HSBC Arena on March 19, 2010 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Rick Stewart

Tournament Resume: [19-10 (8-7), RPI: 67, SOS: 90]

Who would have ever thought that on the same day that North Carolina plays Duke, the bigger game in the ACC might be Clemson vs. Virginia Tech, because the winner of that game could very well be in the NCAA Tournament, and loser would likely be out.

Clemson has had an average year, with an average RPI and an average Strength of Schedule. Clemson will likely have to win at least one or two games in the conference tournament in order to make it. The problem here is that their margin for error is very small.

Prediction: Out

10. Nebraska

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LAWRENCE, KS - JANUARY 15: Head coach Doc Sadler of the Nebraska Cornhuskers instructs Toney McCray #0 during the game against the Kansas Jayhawks on January 15, 2011 at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Tournament Resume: [19-10 (7-8), RPI: 72, SOS: 58]

Between Nebraska, Colorado and Baylor, one or two of those teams are going to get in, and the remaining one or two are going to get left out. It's really not feasible to see all three getting in or out.

With that said, Saturday's game against Colorado is absolutely huge. The winner will likely be in, and the loser will be out, unless they happen to make a big run in the conference tournament. The deal with Nebraska is that even though they currently sit at 7-8 in conference play, they do have a better RPI than all three of those teams. They also had that impressive win at home against Texas, which should help their chances.

When it comes down to it, it looks like Nebraska will have to beat Colorado and then win one or two games in the conference tournament. That's a lot to ask.

Prediction: Out

9. Boston College

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GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 11: Reggie Jackson #0 of the Boston College Eagles wipes his face during the first half against the University of Virginia Cavaliers in their first round game in the 2010 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum o

Tournament Resume: [18-11 (8-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 17]

Boston College was considered too be one of those teams that were going to be left out coming into the week, but after a big 15-point win over Virgina Tech and one final regular season game against last-place Wake Forest, the Eagles' chances should be looking a whole lot brighter heading into the ACC tournament.

With all the bubble teams behind Boston College losing bad games down the stretch, the Eagles just have to continue to win the games they are supposed to.

I said that three out of the four bubble teams from the ACC are going to get in, and right now, the favorites look to be BC, Florida State and Va Tech.

Prediction: In

8. Virginia Tech

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GREENSBORO, NC - MARCH 12: Seth Greenberg, head coach of the Virginia Tech Hokies on the sidelines against the University of Miami Hurricanes in their quarterfinal game in the 2010 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum on March 12, 2

Tournament Resume: [19-9 (9-6), RPI: 61, SOS: 104]

When Virginia Tech beat Duke last week, we all heard everyone say that the win punched the Hokies ticket into the NCAA tournament. Not so fast.

Virginia Tech's loss to BC Tuesday put a huge hold on that tournament resume and really put the heat on this team. Had the Hokies beaten Boston College, they'd probably be punching their ticket, but with that loss,Virgina Tech still has some work to do here.

Saturday's game at Clemson is absolutely huge for the Hokies. If they win, they should be in. If they lose, they will have to win at least two games in the ACC Tournament to assure a spot in the field of 68.

Hopefully the tournament committee doesn't take too hard of a look at that 104th ranked strength of schedule. I think it's pretty much 50/50 with this team heading into the final stretch. We shall see how it all plays out for Seth Greenberg's club.

Prediction: In

7. Georgia

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LEXINGTON, KY - JANUARY 29: Travis Leslie #1 of the Georgia Bulldogs shoots the ball while defended by Josh Harrellson #55 and DeAndre Liggins #34 of the Kentucky Wildcats during the SEC game against at Rupp Arena on January 29, 2011 in Lexington, Kentu

Tournament Resume: [20-9 (9-6), RPI: 35, SOS: 31]

On paper, this looks like a pretty good resume and the type of one that should get a team into the NCAA tournament. But with one game remaining and the conference tournament awaiting, the Georgia Bulldogs do have some work left to do if they want to assure they get in the field of 68.

The deal with Georgia is that they have a good conference record, but the SEC is just simply put, a pretty weak conference.

The Bulldogs have not had any bad losses this season as all nine of their defeats have come against teams currently ranked in the RPI top 50. Nut on the other hand, Georgia hasn't really had any wins that would make their resume stand out above others.

They have a big game this Saturday against Alabama, and if they can win that, they should all but wrap up an at-large big into the tournament.

Prediction: In

6. Illinois

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CHAMPAIGN, IL - FEBRUARY 13: Head coach Bruce Weber of the Illinois Fighting Illini argues with a call during the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Assembly Hall on February 13, 2011 in Champaign, Illinois. Purdue defeated Illinois 81-70. (Photo by

Tournament Resume: [18-12 (8-9), RPI: 37, SOS: 12]

Earlier this season, it looked like Illinois weren't only a lock for the NCAA tournament, but it looked like they could be working towards a No. 4 or 5 seed in the Big Dance.

But the Fighting Illini have hit an awful stretch as of late, losing nine of their last 14 games. Bruce Weber's club has one remaining game against Indiana on Saturday, which should result in a win. Then after that, you have to say that Illinois would have to win probably two games in the Big Ten Tournament in order to feel good about their chances.

With a .500 record in the Big Ten and the No. 12 ranked Strength of Schedule in the country, the Fighting Illini should be dancing in March. But as of late, this team always seems to find themselves flirting with that bubble.

Prediction: In

5. Baylor

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HOUSTON - MARCH 28: Guard LaceDarius Dunn #24 of the Baylor Bears reacts during a 78-71 loss against the Duke Blue Devils during the south regional final of the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tournament at Reliant Stadium on March 28, 2010 in Houston, Texas.

Tournament Resume: [18-11 (7-8), RPI: 75, SOS: 47]

After a deep run in last year's tournament, and with the return of their best player and one of the most highly touted freshman classes in the country, everyone expected Baylor to be a lock for this year's NCAA Tournament. Now, with one game remaining against in-state rival Texas, Baylor is fighting for their NCAA tournament lives. 

When you're a team that has 11 losses, you need to have a strong strength of schedule in order to make the tournament, and that just isn't the case for Baylor. The RPI is awful and the best non conference win came against Arizona State, the Pac-10's last-place team. Plus, the Bears have beaten exactly one top-50 team.

Saturday's game against Texas is pretty much a must-win for Baylor, unless they are planing on running the table in the Big 12 Tournament.

Prediction: Out

4. Marquette

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KANSAS CITY, MO - NOVEMBER 23: David Stockton #11 of the Marquette Golden Eagles controls the ball as Junior Cadougan #5 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs defends during the CBE Classic consolation game on November 23, 2010 at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mis

Tournament Resume: [18-12 (9-8), RPI: 55, SOS: 24]

Is it really possible that 11 teams from the Big East could potentially get into the NCAA tournament?

The answer to that question is: Yes. And the only one of those 11 teams that should have any worries about not making it is Marquette.

Marquette's final regular-season game is this Saturday at Seton Hall. A win there would all but assure the Golden Eagles a spot in the NCAA tournament, but a loss there would really put them square on that bubble and almost force them to win at least one game in the Big East Tournament.

Right now, it looks like Marquette should have a good chance to get in. But my upset pick here is that Seton Hall beats Marquette and in return, puts Marquette in a very difficult position to have to win a game in the Big East Tournament.

Prediction: Out

3. Florida State

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COLLEGE PARK, MD - FEBRUARY 23: Luke Loucks #3 of the Florida State Seminoles passes around Terrell Stoglin #12 of the Maryland Terrapins at the Comast Center on February 23, 2011 in College Park, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Tournament Resume: [20-9 (10-5), RPI: 49, SOS: 88]

Barring a loss at NC State on Sunday and a first-round upset in ACC tourney play, it should be safe to say that Florida State will safely land a spot on Selection Sunday.

The Seminoles post a solid record and have a good RPI to go along with it. They did lose their best player, Chris Singleton, for the past couple of games, but even in his absence, they showed they can hang with the best as they only lost to North Carolina by two on a last second shot.

If Florida State beats NC State, they are in. If Florida State loses to NC State and then wins at least one or two ACC Tournament games, they are in. You have to like those odds if you're a Florida State fan.

Prediction: In

2. Washington

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SYRACUSE, NY - MARCH 25: Isiah Thomas #2 of the Washington Huskies looks to pass the ball against the West Virginia Mountaineers during the east regional semifinal of the 2010 NCAA men's basketball tournament at the Carrier Dome on March 25, 2010 in Syra

Tournament Resume: [20-9 (11-6), RPI: 36, SOS: 64]

So the Huskies weren't quite as good as most people pegged them to be in the regular season this year. Big deal.

Washington was in slight danger of being on the bubble heading into this week, but a win over UCLA on Thursday night was huge, and if the Huskies finish the job with a win over USC on Saturday, they should be in good shape to get in, regardless of what they do in the Pac-10 tournament.

Washington is one of those teams that if they do get in, they could make some noise in the NCAA Tournament, because the talent certainly is there with this team.

Prediction: In

1. Michigan State

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COLUMBUS, OH - FEBRUARY 15: Kalin Lucas #1 of the Michigan State Spartans controls the ball while playing the Ohio State Buckues on February 15, 2011 at Value City Arena in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Tournament Resume: [17-12 (9-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 10]

Other than that loss against Purdue last week, Tom Izzo's club looks to be playing pretty good as of late and getting back to the style of Michigan State basketball that fans have all seen come tournament time.

Michigan State closes out the season with a game against in-state rival Michigan on Saturday. With a win, the Spartans would all but assure themselves a spot in this year's NCAA tournament. With a loss, the Spartans would need to win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament to assure themselves a bid.

Either way, were talking about Michigan State here, and Tom Izzo's teams seem to always get it done come March. The Spartans should cruise into the tournament after a win against Michigan on Saturday.

If I were an opposing team, I would not want to see Michigan State come NCAA tournament time. Especially early on in a potential upset game.