March Madness 2011: What Can We Expect from the Notre Dame Irish?

The Notre Dame Irish have been a solid team all year long. They currently sit half a game out of first place in the Big East, which is impressive by any standard. However, a few red flags remain when we look at the examine the Fighting Irish further. 

First, we must look to Notre Dame's record. They have a 24-5 record including a 13-4 Big East record. When we look deeper, it is concerning. All five losses have come at the hands of good but not great teams, and all of them were by 10 or more points. When Notre Dame struggles, they struggle bad.

Notre Dame has lost to Kentucky, Syracuse, Marquette, St. Johns and West Virginia. These are teams that are not unlike the ones they will be matching up with in the first few rounds of the tournament. Notre Dame has played extremely well against most of the elite competition they have faced thus far. However, they have had trouble with teams in that next tier. 

Another problem is the Irish rely very heavily on three-point shooting. This is generally a good thing, as the Irish are 20th in three point efficiency, but sometimes they tend to become too dependent from beyond the arc. Of the five games they have lost, Notre Dame has shot above 30 percent from deep in just one. They were 7-21 against Syracuse. If Notre Dame isn't making their jumpers, it's going to be very difficult for them to win. Jump-shooting teams often struggle in the tournament, and are prone to early exits. 

The next things that makes me worry about Notre Dame's chances in the dance is that all five of their losses occurred away from home. The game against Kentucky was on a neutral site, but the other four losses were on the road.

Notre Dame has just one real win in true road games, but it was a big one. On January 24, Notre Dame went in and beat Pitt by five points. The Irish frustrated the Panthers all game and came up with a very big victory. 

The problem is that in the NCAA tournament, you don't play any home games. While many teams are much better at home than on the road, (I'm looking at you Wisconsin) Notre Dame will be at a disadvantage looking at the fact that they really only have one good win in road games. Keep a close eye on the Irish when they head to Connecticut on Saturday to play the Huskies. This game should tell us a lot about where Notre Dame stands.  

Notre Dame has a solid senior-led team which has helped them perform well all season, but many questions remain regarding the team heading into the tournament. It only takes one poor shooting performance to get eliminated. They may look like a Final Four team one day, and a team headed for an early exit the next.

I'm not going to try and tell you that Notre Dame has a bad, or even an overrated team. They are a good team that could possibly make a deep run in the tournament. However, the Irish are vulnerable to an early exit in the tourney, so maybe you should think twice before penciling them in as your national champion.