BYU Soars To No. 3 in Coaches Poll, but Are They Overrated?

The Feb. 28 Coaches Poll was just released and the BYU Cougars (27-2) jumped four spots to No. 3.  In the process, they passed Duke, San Diego State, Pitt and Texas.  Ohio State reclaimed No. 1 and Kansas remained at No. 2.

Has the Coaches Poll, a poll which saw three of its members cast No. 1 votes for San Diego State last week, been too generous to BYU?  Do they deserve to be ranked so high?

The Provo, Utah school is having a great year and their most impressive accomplishment may have been beating fellow Mountain West Conference member San Diego State (27-2) twice.

Conversely, San Diego State (No. 9 in the Coaches Poll) may consider its best accomplishment not allowing BYU to beat them by more than 13 points.  The Cougars beat the Aztecs 71-58 the first time they played and 80-67 this past Saturday.

The fact about San Diego State is that they have only played one team currently ranked in the Coaches Poll—BYU.  Their best wins are against St. Mary's College, Gonzaga and UNLV.  St. Mary's and UNLV are headed for the NCAA Tournament.  Gonzaga still has work to do.

San Diego State may have won 27 games, but have you ever heard of a team ranked in the top 10 without a signature win?

If you believe the Coaches Poll, you'd have to agree that, if BYU was a member of a power conference like the Big East, they'd be in first place ahead of Pitt.  You'd have to agree that they would be favored to win the upcoming Big East Tournament.

But what seems more realistic, ranking BYU ahead of the 11 Big East teams expected to make the NCAA Tournament or ranking all 11 ahead of BYU?

BYU does have a great record and they've only lost two games (UCLA, 86-79 and New Mexico, 86-77).  UCLA (21-8) is going to the NCAA Tournament.  New Mexcio (18-11) will likely get a bid to the NIT if it doesn't win the MWC Tournament.  Both are presently unranked.

Besides San Diego State, the other ranked teams BYU has defeated this season are No. 18 Arizona and No. 21 Utah State.

But we're talking about the third-best team in the country.  Shouldn't they have a resume that includes a few wins over some of the real elite teams?  Shouldn't they have scheduled some of them?

The Cougars are ranked ahead of No. 5 Pitt (25-4) and No. 6 Purdue (24-5).  Pitt has wins over five highly ranked teams from the Big East and No. 8 Texas.  Purdue has two wins over No. 10 Wisconsin and they recently beat No. 1 Ohio State.

Please don't bring up RPI!  As of today, the No. 1 RPI does belong to BYU, but how accurate can it be if San Diego State ranks No. 4.

Most analysts don't understand the RPI and it's only used by the NCAA selection committee to brake a tie between two teams.  It's the last resort when it come to seeding or selecting teams for the tournament. 

And don't waste time bringing up BYU's strength of schedule (No. 12).  SOS means nothing—what really counts is who you beat, not just who you played.  

The University of South Florida has a good SOS (No. 22).  Are they a good team?  No, they're the 15th ranked team in the 16-team Big East.

BYU played South Florida earlier this year.  The Cougars needed two over times to win, 77-75.  It's the only game they played against a Big East team this year, and although one game doesn't make a reliable sampling, it might indicate just how hard a time BYU would have if they were a member of top major conference.

If BYU gets a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and if form holds, they'll play a No. 8 seed in the second round.

Joe Lunardi's latest version of bracketology lists UNLV, Utah State, UCLA and Kansas State as the No. 8 seeds.

The Cougars beat Utah State 78-72 and UNLV twice (89-77 and 78-64).  They lost to UCLA and have not played Kansas State.

The Big 12's Kansas State (21-9, 9-6)  has just won seven of their last eight games, including one which knocked Kansas out of the No. 1 ranking, one over Texas and another over No. 21 Missouri.

If BYU survived a game against the No. 8 seed, and if form holds, they'd play a No. 4 seed.  Lunardi currently lists UConn, Louisville, Florida and St. John's as No. 4 seeds. 

Good luck, BYU!