Carmelo Anthony: Can He Take the Knicks Out of the First Round?
Carmelo Anthony is finally a New York Knick.
Whether you love the trade, hate the trade, wish they would have waited until the offseason or wish they would have kept their core group of guys together, the reality is, all the rumors are over. He's here.
I have compared trade scenarios for Carmelo, examined who had the best deal for Carmelo and even argued for why the Knicks should have waited on Carmelo. Those talks are now over.
All that matters now is, will the Knicks win with Carmelo?
Rest Of The Season
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The Miami Heat came out of the gate 9-8 while getting used to their new team. The New York Knicks will have a similar slow start.
Right away, the Knicks play the Milwaukee Bucks and go to Cleveland to play the Cavaliers, which should both be easy victories (although the Los Angeles Lakers had a tough time on their most recent visit to Ohio).
Then the schedule gets very difficult.
They will go at Miami, at Orlando, home against New Orleans, home against Cleveland, at Atlanta, home against Utah, at Memphis and at Dallas. I don't see how they can navigate this path with such a new roster at anything more than 6-4. Most likely, they will start out the second half of the season 4-6 or 5-5.
The schedule eases up a little bit for the next five games, but then they will still have to play Boston twice, Orlando twice and the Chicago Bulls once.
I see the Knicks finishing something like this: 6-4, 5-0, 8-5
That gives them a 19-9 finish to the season and an overall record of 47-35.
Knicks Will Be No Lower Than a No. 6 Seed
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With a 47-win mark, the Philadelphia 76ers would have to win 21 of their final 26 to pass the New York Knicks. The 76ers may be playing better, but they aren't going to finish the season on that pace.
Philadelphia will be the No. 7 seed, and take your pick of Indiana/Milwaukee/Charlotte for the eighth spot.
Teams Above Them
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The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics will battle each other for the No. 1 seed. The Chicago Bulls could stay in the hunt, especially with Joakim Noah coming back, but their schedule becomes more difficult and the No. 3 seed seems more likely.
That leaves the Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks to fill out the No. 4, 5 and 6 seeds. With the Knicks starting out 5.5 games behind the Hawks and 6.5 behind the Magic, I doubt the Knicks can rise any higher than the No. 6 seed.
Regardless, I will examine how the Knicks would match up with all five teams ahead of them in a first-round series.
Atlanta Hawks
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These teams were about even before the trade. Here's how the comparisons work:
Billups over Bibby. Joe Johnson over Landry Fields. Carmelo Anthony over Marvin Williams. Amar'e Stoudemire over Josh Smith. Al Horford over Ronny Turiaf.
Considering nothing changes in the next couple days, Atlanta brings Jamal Crawford off the bench and New York has Toney Douglas, Shawne Williams and Corey Brewer.
I think the Knicks would win a series against the Atlanta Hawks in six or seven games. Problem is, the Orlando Magic would have to really struggle in the second half of the season for the Hawks and Knicks to meet up in a No. 4 versus No. 5 first-round series.
Orlando Magic
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The New York Knicks, with Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire, Chauncey Billups and the supporting cast they had before the trade, would be able to knock out the Orlando Magic.
The new roster will not have the level of depth to handle Dwight Howard's team.
Chicago Bulls
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This series would be very interesting and is the most likely of the potential scenarios to happen.
The Chicago Bulls are not a fluke—they're 38-16 right now and got there with multiple injuries. Joakim Noah gave the Bulls 14 points and nearly 12 rebounds every night in the 24 games he played this season. He'll be back for the second half. Carlos Boozer has found his rhythm and Derrick Rose has the inside track to be the MVP.
Carmelo will be a tough guard for Chicago. Landry Fields will also shine in this series. Amar'e Stoudemire has proven he still has big games even against talented big men (see playoff history against the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers).
This series will go six or seven games. I give the edge to Chicago, since they will have the home-court advantage.
Miami Heat
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This showdown would only happen if the Heat somehow slipped to the No. 3 seed. If the Knicks become Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire, then this series will be a classic.
As of now, five-game Heat victory.
Boston Celtics
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Way too much talent and way too much experience.
The Boston Celtics would take this series even though the Knicks could steal one or two games.
Was It Worth It?
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A Knicks team with Chauncey Billups, Carmelo Anthony, Amar'e Stoudemire and Landry Fields is not enough to make a run in the Eastern Conference this year.
Honestly, it probably will not be enough to get out of the first round.
However, having Carmelo in place with Amar'e is a great starting point for the franchise. Billups will be able to run the point for the rest of this year and the next season before the Knicks go after Chris Paul or Deron Williams. Landry Fields can easily be a starting shooting guard in this league for years to come. They'll need to address the center position, but even a championship contender like the Miami Heat have holes there.
The Knicks have more potential now with two superstars than they did before with Amar'e and several quality guys.
Knicks fans will have to be patient, though. A trip to the second round is highly unlikely.
