2011 Fantasy Projections, No. 50: Jimmy Rollins Doesn't Need a High Batting AVG

Our 2011 fantasy baseball projections will be released one-by-one until the top 100 players have been revealed. These rankings consider past achievements, current performance and expected future results based on standard 5×5 H2H settings.

Jimmy Rollins is an enigma.

In 2007, his 139/30/94/41/.296 line was one of the greatest fantasy baseball seasons in recent memory. In 2008, Rollins’ power (11 HRs) and batting average (.277) dropped drastically while he battled a lingering ankle injury.

His 2009 line included the rare power/speed combo (21 HRs, 31 SBs) that fantasy managers wanted to see, but it came with an unusually low .250 batting average. Most people (myself included), chalked this up to a lowly .251 BABIP, and predicted a 2010 batting average closer to his career mark in the .270 range.

Unfortunately for Rollins’ fantasy managers, not only did his batting average bottom out again (.243) but his BABIP (.246) appeared to hold him back while he battled through calf and hamstring injuries that limited him to just 88 games. He also underwent surgery in December to remove cysts from his wrist.

Assuming 100 percent health in 2011, Rollins is the fourth best player at a thin shortstop position, even with a low batting average.

Although he’s entering his age-32 season, Rollins has maintained exceptional stolen base percentages in recent years:

• 2008: 94 percent (47-of-50)
• 2009: 79 percent (31-of-39)
• 2010: 94 percent (17-of-18)

It’s possible that the .251 and .246 BABIP totals over the last two seasons aren’t entirely the fault of bad luck injuries, but they’ve definitely factored in. If we’re assuming only 130-140 games this season and an average amount of luck, the Phillies’ leadoff man will trump the likes of Jeter, Ramirez, Drew and Andrus at the shortstop position.

	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
2010 Sats	394	48	8	41	17	.243
Three-Year Average	581	75	13	59	32	.258
2011 FBI Forecast	600	90	15	60	25	.267

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• Nos. 11-20: Where Do Votto, A-Rod and Halladay Fit In?
• Nos. 21-30: Hernandez, Lincecum or Wainwright?
• Nos. 31-40: Heyward, Upton or McCutchen?
• No. 41: Clayton Kershaw
• No. 42: Alex Rios
• No. 43: Brian McCann
• No. 44: Drew Stubbs
• No. 45: Ichiro Suzuki
• No. 46: Andre Ethier
• No. 47: Martin Prado
• No. 48: Cole Hamels
• No. 49: Zack Greinke

MLB Trades: Fantasy Impact:

• Frank Francisco Traded to the Blue Jays, Who Will Be The Team’s Closer?
• Mike Napoli Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact
• Vernon Wells Traded to the Los Angeles Angels: Fantasy Impact
• Adrian Beltre Traded to the Texas Rangers: Fantasy Impact

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• Guerrero to Baltimore: Why He’s Better Off in Camden Yards than Rangers Ballpark
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options