March Madness 2011 Predictions: Ohio State Will Lose in the Tournament

It's not quite the Madden cover jinx, the curse of the Billy Goat or the curse of the Bambino, but being the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA championship tournament has not been a bed of roses either.

Since the tournament implemented the overall No. 1 seed in 2004, only one team actually anointed the “best” No. 1 has won the championship—the 2007 Florida Gators, who just happened to have a team loaded with NBA-caliber talent.

Now, Ohio State has the dubious distinction of being the No. 1 overall seed and with the bulls-eye squarely on their back, the Buckeyes hope to avoid the fate of 2010 overall No.1 Kansas, who lost to Ali Farokmanesh and Northern Iowa in the second round of the tournament (now known as the third round.)

Ohio State looked mesmerizing in the dismantling of lowly No. 16 seed University of Texas-San Antonio, with the perimeter shooters making it rain Pac-man style and Jared Sullinger doing work in the post. This could all be snake oil, though, as the only No. 1 to lose in the first round (now the second round) was—oh wait, no No. 1 has ever lost to a No. 16 seed.

The Buckeyes face some major pitfalls on their way to Houston. First, their lack of depth could be problem, especially if the aforementioned Sullinger gets in foul trouble. If the Buckeyes make the Elite Eight they could potentially face either Syracuse or North Carolina, both possessing front-line players who can score and draw fouls in the post.

If Sullinger gets into foul trouble battling Rick Jackson of Syracuse or the twin towers of North Carolina (Tyler Zeller and John Henson), there’s no other big on the Ohio State roster capable of generating his own offense. Dallas Lauderdale is a big body, but he doesn’t keep opposing coaches up at night.

Another problem for the Buckeyes is that they don’t have that transcendent star that can carry a team through six games of the tourney, a la Carmelo Anthony circa 2003 or Danny Manning circa 1988. Unlike the NBA, college basketball championships can be won by virtuoso performances from a star.

Sullinger is a great talent and a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft but he’s not capable of putting the team on his back (Greg Jemmings style) if he needs to. The Buckeyes have great wing players in David Lighty and Jon Diebler, but both are rendered useless if their shooting is off.

One underrated factor in the Buckeyes would-be run to the title would be Thad Matta’s inability to deliver in big games. Despite the fact that Matta has had stellar talent year after year he has not been able to bring a title to Columbus. He’s not the only high profile coach without a title to his name, but he certainly does not get as much grief about it as others have.

It took Roy Williams forever and a day to capture his first title, but his teams came close on several occasions. On Thad’s lone trip to the title game, his team got beat down by Florida in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated.

With those facts on the table no one should be shocked when Ohio State falls short of the lofty expectations set out for them. It’s easy to crumble when everyone’s gunning for you and this Ohio State team is no different than the ones before it. Prepare for a letdown, Buckeye nation.