NCAA Tournament 2011 Update: The Odds for Every Team in the Sweet 16
As usual the NCAA tournament has failed to disappoint, giving us some great action over the past weekend and reducing the tourney to just 16 teams remaining.
There are still three No. 1 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen after Pittsburgh fell victim to Butler, and four double-digit seeds remain in the tourney. Three of those teams are left in the Southwest where they will have to knock off one of the big favorites in the Kansas Jayhawks.
Ohio State has been the most impressive team so far in the tournament, but will they be able to continue that success all the way to Houston and the Final Four?
And can Duke run through the West region and repeat as national champs for the second straight season?
Here are the odds for all 16 teams remaining to get to the National Championship and cut down the nets on April 4th.
These are my odds for each team to win the title, not the Vegas odds.
Richmond Spiders: 100 to 1
1 of 16
The Spiders are the lowest seeded team remaining in the tournament as a 12 seed and they face potentially the toughest team in the country in their next matchup, the Kansas Jayhawks.
Richmond deserves credit for getting to the Sweet Sixteen and they will likely be a tough matchup for KU, but they have not beaten an elite team in their first two games and now they will be playing an elite team.
The Spiders don't have the athletes or the firepower to stay with the Jayhawks throughout the entire game, so even if they keep it close in the first half, expect Kansas to eventually pull away as they have done in their first two games.
If the Spiders are able to pull off the mammoth upset then anything can happen because they will be playing another double-digit seed in the Elite Eight and they will follow that game with a contest against the very beatable Southeast region winner.
If everything goes Richmond's way and they beat the Jayhawks, they wouldn't face another elite team until the title game, but getting past Kansas will likely be too much to ask.
VCU Rams: 100 to 1
2 of 16
The Rams have shocked the world while making the committee look a little smarter by including them in the tournament.
VCU won their play-in game in a mini-upset against USC to make the field of 64, and they followed that performance up with two more much-larger upsets over Georgetown and Purdue.
The Rams shoot a lot of threes (over 40 percent of their FG attempts on the season) and so far they have been hitting from beyond the arc in the tourney, connecting on 20 in their last two games.
VCU has a great chance at getting past the Seminoles and into the Elite Eight if they are hitting their shots on Friday night, but they would then most likely have a very tough matchup with the Jayhawks waiting for them.
VCU has pulled two shockers so far, but they will not likely get much further because they rely so much on jump-shooting.
The Rams will have to keep shooting lights out in their next four games to cut down the nets in Houston, and that is both a lot to ask and unlikely.
Marquette Golden Eagles: 75 to 1
3 of 16
The Golden Eagles are one of four double digit seeds remaining in the tournament and they have the unfortunate chore of winning the toughest remaining region.
Marquette pulled a minor upset over sixth seeded Xavier in their first game, only to go on and pull a bigger upset over Big East rival Syracuse in the round of 32.
Next on the chopping block for Marquette could be the Tar Heels, who have not been all that impressive as of late, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
If the Golden Eagles can slow down super-frosh Harrison Barnes then they will have a great chance of getting to the Elite Eight and another tough contest with either Kentucky or Ohio State.
Marquette is a talented team, but they would have to win four straight over four elite basketball teams and that is probably too much to ask from the team who finished 11th in the Big East's regular season.
Don't be shocked if Marquette pulls yet another upset, this time over UNC, but expect their season to end in the Elite Eight.
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Florida State Seminoles: 60 to 1
4 of 16
Florida State picked a good time to play some of their best basketball of the season as they upset Texas A&M and Notre Dame in their first two games of the tournament.
VCU is a winnable game for the Seminoles and then they would most likely face a team in Kansas who is much more athletic and talented than any team they've faced in the tourney as of yet.
Florida State is not a great team offensively, but they do play tough defense, allowing just under 62 points per game this season and holding their first two tourney opponents to 50 and 57 points respectively.
This bodes well for the Seminoles in the Sweet Sixteen since VCU will look to out-shoot Florida State, while the 10-seed will be looking to lock the Rams down with their tough man defense.
Getting past Kansas in the Elite Eight looks unlikely because the Seminoles don't have near enough firepower to stay with the Jayhawks, their only hope will be to keep it close and pull out a late win.
If they can get past the Rams and Jayhawks, then anything can happen in Houston and the National Semifinals where they will face a team that is quite beatable.
Arizona Wildcats: 50 to 1
5 of 16
Arizona has beaten two tough opponents in their first two games of the tourney, Memphis and Texas, but they will have their toughest test yet with Duke.
The Wildcats definitely have the ability to take out the West's No. 1 seed, but they will need Derrick Williams to be at the top of his game to do so.
Williams has scored 39 points and pulled down 19 rebounds in the Cats first two games, but his biggest plays have been late in both games. The 6'8" sophomore blocked the potential game tying shot with just two seconds remaining against Memphis and he followed that effort with a go-ahead three-point play with 9.6 seconds left against the Longhorns.
Duke looked beatable in their two-point win over the Wolverines so you have to give the Wildcats a definite chance of taking down the Blue Devils.
If Arizona can somehow advance to the Elite Eight they will face either San Diego State or Connecticut, another tough matchup, but once again a game the Wildcats could emerge victorious from.
Arizona is a good team who is capable of making a run to Houston, but their title odds suffer because of the difficult road they have to get there.
Butler Bulldogs: 35 to 1
6 of 16
We know the Bulldogs can get there, they went just last year, but I'm not convinced they have the talent to make it back this season.
Butler is a very well-coached team that does everything well but nothing great. Last season that was good enough to make it to the title game when they were led by NBA First-Rounder Gordon Hayward, but this season they are led by two good, but not great players.
Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard have come up big in the first two rounds for the Bulldogs who are fresh off of their huge win over Pittsburgh, the No.1 seed in their region. They were fortunate to win after the crazy final seconds of that game, but the truth is they outplayed the Panthers and deserved to win the game in the first place.
Butler has a very winnable region remaining as they take on Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen and if they can keep rolling they will face the winner of BYU and Florida.
It's hard to doubt the Bulldogs after what they did last season, but I don't think they have enough talent or magic left in the tank to make it to the Final Four this season, much less win it all.
Florida Gators: 30 to 1
7 of 16
I thought the Gators were seeded too highly when they received a 2-seed from the selection committee and I still believe that, but things have set up nicely for Florida who has a great shot at reaching the Final Four for the third time in the past six seasons.
The Gators play tough defense and switch from man-to-man to zone depending on who they are facing, and in the Sweet Sixteen they will have the unenviable task of stopping BYU and Jimmer Fredette.
While Fredette is arguably the best player in college basketball, the rest of his team is solid but not great, and the Gators have enough balance to take down the Cougars.
Should the Gators get past the Cougars, they will have either Wisconsin or Butler waiting for them.
In the Final Four they would likely have to take down the Jayhawks and then another elite team such as Ohio State or Duke, and while the Gators are good, they are not that good.
Connecticut Huskies: 25 to 1
8 of 16
UConn showed they are a force to be reckoned with when they won five games in five straight games in five consecutive days to win the Big East tournament.
The question then became when would they run out of gas during the NCAA tournament? The answer has been not yet.
Kemba Walker has put the Huskies on his back this season and now he has gotten his team all the way to a Sweet Sixteen where they will face a tough opponent in San Diego State.
Connecticut and Marquette are now the final two teams remaining in the tourney from what was supposed to be hands-down the best conference in basketball.
While I like Uconn's chances of winning it all much better than the Golden Eagles, I don't like their chances of getting past Duke in the Elite Eight or even beating San Diego State in the Sweet Sixteen.
Expect Connecticut's great tournament run over the past couple of weeks to come to an end sometime this weekend.
Kentucky Wildcats: 20 to 1
9 of 16
Kentucky has plenty of talent, but they also face the tournament's hottest team, Ohio State.
The Wildcats haven't exactly inspired confidence for their chances of winning it all with their two tournament games so far. They really struggled to beat Princeton, a talented team, but one who was not expected to stay with the Wildcats for very long due to their lack of athleticism, but they did.
West Virginia was a tough opponent in the second round, but they did not have the level of talent that the Wildcats do and they made it very tough for Kentucky to get the victory.
Now the Wildcats were face a team with more talent than their own roster and the Buckeyes do not appear to be getting beat anytime soon.
Kentucky is going to have to stop Buckeyes big-man Jared Sullinger, a task that few teams have accomplished this season.
If the Wildcats manage to pull the upset, then they will face the winner of North Carolina and Marquette for a chance to go to the Final Four.
Kentucky is a very talented team, but they are also a very young team. Do you trust John Calipari's talented team to cut the nets down in Houston? I don't.
Wisconsin Badgers: 20 to 1
10 of 16
Wisonsin won a tough game in the round of 32 when they defeated Kansas State and they will now face another solid squad in the Butler Bulldogs.
The Badgers are capable of beating any team in the country with their stymieing defense as they proved earlier this season against Ohio State, but they are also capable of laying an egg against teams they should beat.
Butler falls somewhere in between, as this game could go either way because both teams are very good, but neither are great.
Things couldn't have gone better for the Badgers through the first two rounds and they now find themselves in the most winnable region left in the tournament, but will they be able to capitalize and make it to Houston?
I wouldn't put my money on anyone who scored just 33 points in a game this season.
BYU Cougars: 18 to 1
11 of 16
It's all about Jimmer in the Sweet Sixteen for the Cougars, as it's never been more true to say that a team will only go as far as their star player takes them.
Fredette has continued his high-scoring ways in the tournament as he has gone for 30-plus in both games, but he will face his stiffest test yet in the Gators.
The key for the Cougars success will be not only the performance of Jimmer, but also the play of his supporting cast and particularly his running mate Jackson Emery.
BYU is a tough team to predict because they rely so much on one player, but I like their chances to get past the Gators and win their game in the Elite Eight against either the Badgers or Bulldogs.
That would set up a huge showdown of the tournament's best player against the tournament's deepest team in the Jayhawks. The advantage there would have to go to the Jayhawks.
San Diego State Aztecs: 16 to 1
12 of 16
The Aztecs were highly ranked for most of the season, but they have been a team that has kind of flown under the radar in the tournament thus far. A win over Uconn would likely change that.
San Diego State likes to play an up-tempo game, but they also pride themselves on tough defense after allowing just over 58 points per game this season.
If the Aztecs can play their style and get out and run then they may be able to tire the Huskies who have played a lot of basketball in the past few weeks.
Sophomore forward Kawhi Leonard (37 points and 19 rebounds through the first two games) is the unquestioned leader of the Aztecs and the team will likely go as far as he takes them.
Expect San Diego State to beat the Huskies and advance to the Elite Eight where they will lose to Duke in a very hard-fought game that will come down to the wire.
North Carolina Tar Heels: 15 to 1
13 of 16
North Carolina is living in an alternate universe compared to where they were last season when they failed to even make the NCAA tournament.
This season they have been good, but something seems to be missing in their quest to win it all.
Oh that's right, it's defense. That's what missing from the Tar Heels roster.
UNC has been impressive on the offensive side of the ball where they put up over 100 against Long Island and went for 86 against UW, but they also allowed over 80 points in both of those contests.
UW outplayed UNC for most of their game, but the Tar Heels were able to pull it out late after the Huskies made some major mistakes. That has been the story of the Tar Heels past couple of weeks as they have found themselves behind in many of their games.
Eventually UNC will not be able to rally and that is when they will find their season over, I would bet that's going to happen sooner than later.
Duke Blue Devils: 7 to 1
14 of 16
Duke has the experience to win it all, having won the title last season, and they also have the talent to get it done with players like Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler on their roster.
Those two characteristics are usually huge when it gets down to the tournament's final teams and because of that Duke should be one of the favorites to cut the nets down once again.
The Blue Devils were in control for most of the game against the Wolverines, but they also let Michigan back into the game and they were fortunate to avoid overtime as Darius Morris missed a short runner at the buzzer.
The late-game struggles have to be a cause for concern for the Blue Devils, but ultimately they got the win and that's all that matters.
Now they will face a difficult team in the Arizona Wildcats, and a team who can give them a run for their money.
If they are able to get past the WIldcats they will face another tough test in either the Huskies or Aztecs, and finally a potential matchup with the Buckeyes to get to the title game.
I wouldn't put a repeat championship past Coach K and his boys, but they can't afford another late-game letdown or they will have a long summer without another title.
Ohio State Buckeyes: 3 to 1
15 of 16
Many people believe the Buckeyes are the most talented team in the country, and they are certainly right up there, but they have arguably the toughest road of any No. 1 seed remaining.
Ohio State must get past Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen and then a likely contest against the Tar Heels in the Elite Eight.
Freshman big-man Jared Sullinger is the toughest player to stop in the post in the country with his combination of size and strength and the Buckeyes also have some sharp shooters on the perimeter as they proved once again in their blowout win over George Mason in the round of 32.
Ohio State plays great defense, holding their opponents to just under 60-points per game this season and they have plenty of firepower on offense to win a game if they do find themselves in a shootout.
One thing that may work against the Buckeyes is their youth. They are a very young team especially considering they are relying so heavily on Sullinger to get it done down low.
Ohio State could easily run through the rest of the East region and all the way to Houston where they cut down the nets, but they also could struggle against a long and talented Kentucky team.
I like the Buckeyes chances to get to Houston, but their road will be quite difficult and probably bumpy.
Kansas Jayhawks: 2 to 1
16 of 16
Kansas and Ohio State appear to be on a crash course for Houston.
Ohio State's win over George Mason may have been the most dominant win of the tournament, but the Jayhawks are also playing very good basketball and they have a much easier road to the title game then the Buckeyes.
Kansas will have to get past Richmond in the Sweet Sixteen, and while the 12th seeded Spiders could pose a problem, the Jayhawks should ultimately pull away in the second half like they have done in their first two tourney games.
Barring a major letdown the Jayhawks should get to Houston where they would play the winner of the tournament's weakest region, the Southeast region.
None of the remaining teams on the Jayhawks right side of the bracket have the depth, talent, or athleticism to stay with Kansas for 40 minutes so you should expect them to make it all the way to the title game at the very least.
Once they reach the final they will likely face the Buckeyes or the Blue Devils, both very difficult opponents.
But the final should come down to which team has the most talent and depth, and just like in 2008, that team is the Jayhawks.
Sullinger is a beast, but he hasn't seen a front-line like the Jayhawks have with three future NBA first-rounders in the Morris twins and Thomas Robinson.
Expect the Jayhawks to pound the ball down low during their final four games of the tournament and cut the nets down in Houston as Bill Self gets Kansas their second title in the past four seasons.
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