St. John's Basketball: How High Should They Be Ranked and How Far Can They Go?

Will anyone in this year's tournament have more impressive wins than St. John's? 

Ohio State's biggest win was Purdue, Duke's biggest win was North Carolina and Kansas has yet to really have an impressive win. 

With the exception of Texas winning at Kansas, no team in the NCAA has had better wins than the team from New York, who is putting on more of a show at the Garden than even the reinvigorated Knicks. 

The Record

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NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 30: Head coach of the St. John's Red Storm Steve Lavin watches on against the Duke Blue Devils at Madison Square Garden on January 30, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Right now, Steve Lavin has his team at 17-9. 

Historically, a nine loss team lands about a seven seed in the tournament, a six seed at the highest. Considering St. John's has to go and play at Villanova, along with navigate through a brutal Big East Tournament, I expect them to end up at 22-11. 

Eleven losses means probably an eight or nine seed, but this is not your normal 11 loss team. 

The Schedule

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NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 30: Justin Brownlee #32 of the St. John's Red Storm celebrates the win against the Duke Blue Devils at Madison Square Garden on January 30, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

There was a stretch this season where the St. John's schedule looked like this (rankings based on when the game was played): 

(9) Georgetown

At (14) Notre Dame

(4) Syracuse 

(9) Notre Dame

At (19) Louisville

(25) Cincinnati 

At (21) Georgetown

(3) Duke 

St. John's went an understandable 3-5 through this gauntlet. 

The Wins: Duke

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NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 30: Dwight Hardy #12 of the St. John's Red Storm fakes in front of Kyle Singler #12 of the Duke Blue Devils at Madison Square Garden on January 30, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

The win over Duke was an incredible display of teamwork and was the first time when I looked at St. John's as a legitimate threat to go deep into March. 

There are a couple things to remember about this win. This was no last second shot or fluke of a victory, St. John's pounded Duke 93-78. 

Also, this was not as much of a home game for St. John's as you would think. I live five streets away from Madison Square Garden and I can tell you first hand that the stadium was filled with Duke fans and nearly one in every five people I saw in Penn Station after the game was wearing a Duke shirt. Duke travels well and they have a strong contingency in New York City. 

This was not as impressive as winning in Cameron Stadium by any means, but Madison Square Garden was not an Allen Fieldhouse type of home court for the Johnnies. 

Pittsburgh Panthers

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NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 30: Justin Brownlee #32 of the St. John's Red Storm celebrates a basket against the Duke Blue Devils at Madison Square Garden on January 30, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Pittsburgh was starting to look really good recently. At 24-2 (now 24-3), Pitt will either be a one or two seed in this year's tournament. 

Yes, it was only a one point victory, but this game showed that St. John's has the ability to close out a high pressure, down to the wire game.

Other Big Wins

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LOUISVILLE, KY - DECEMBER 08: Scott Martin #14 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish dribbles the ball during the game against the Kentucky Wildcats in the 2010 DIRECTV SEC/BIG EAST Invitational at Freedom Hall on December 8, 2010 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Ph

Notre Dame and Georgetown are both teams that could land a three seed in this year's tournament. 

Connecticut is probably a four or five seed. 

Adding these wins to the St. John's resume gives them five wins over top 16 clubs. A win at Villanova next Saturday and suddenly a case can be made that St. John's might be worthy of a top five seed.

Bad Losses

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NEW YORK - JANUARY 13: Rayner Moquete #22 of the Fordham Rams handles the ball against the Dayton Flyers at Madison Square Garden on January 13, 2010 in New York, New York. (Photo by Mike Lawrie/Getty Images)

Luckily for St. John's, these losses came early in the season: 

St. Bonaventure is 14-10. Fordham is 6-17 and a winless 0-11 in the Atlantic 10. 

St. John's hopes that the tournament selection committee will simply skim over these mistakes and be more impressed by the big wins later on in the schedule.

Losses That Don't Look Too Bad Now

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LAWRENCE, KS - DECEMBER 02: Reeves Nelson #22 of the UCLA Bruins in action during the game against the Kansas Jayhawks on December 2, 2010 at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

The first game of the season, a loss at St. Mary's, does not look bad at all anymore. St. Mary's is a legitimate team and at 22-5, will most likely be in the NCAA tournament. 

UCLA will also be a tournament team. 

At Notre Dame, Syracuse, at Louisville, Cincinnati and at Georgetown. All five of those Big East losses are against quality teams. 

The Seeding

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NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 30: Andre Dawkins #20 of the Duke Blue Devils jumps over the back of Justin Burrell #24 of the St. John's Red Storm at Madison Square Garden on January 30, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Let's look at some different scenarios:

Worst Case

St. John's is not going to lose their final four games and get knocked out in the first round of the Big East Tournament. However, they could lose at Villanova and at Seton Hall. Once the Big East Tournament starts up, who knows what could happen. 

I say worst case is St. John's finishes 19-12 and lands a nine seed in the tournament.

Best Case

Let's say they get hot and win the rest of their games. A 24-9 record with a Big East Tournament Championship and I think suddenly you could see this team ranked as high as a three seed.

Most Likely

They finish out 3-1 losing at Villanova. I like their chances in the Big East tournament because of how well they have played in Madison Square Garden. They will have home-court advantage and I can see them picking up at least two wins. My prediction is a championship loss to either Pittsburgh or Notre Dame. This would give the Johnnies a 22-11 record and a seven seed in the East bracket.

How Far Can They Go?

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NEW YORK, NY - JANUARY 30: D.J. Kennedy #1 of the St. John's Red Storm is fouled by Nolan Smith #2 of the Duke Blue Devils at Madison Square Garden on January 30, 2011 in New York City. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

Look at it this way, they have proven they can beat one through four seeds, which should give fans hope that they could go all the way. 

However, tournament games will not be played at Madison Square Garden and St. John's has not proven to be a great road team this season. 

I think St. John's will match up better against big conference foes in the tournament than a high quality mid-major. The Johnnies are a team that could get knocked out in the first round or go all the way to the elite eight. I don't think it will go any further than that for St. John's. 

But who knows, they have proven us wrong before.