With Minnesota Win, Penn St. Should Replace Michigan St. Inside NCAA Bubble

With tonight's win over Minnesota, the Penn State Nittany Lions basketball team (14-11, 7-7) should have a good chance of replacing Michigan State (14-11, 6-7) within the NCAA Tournament's bubble.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi may disagree.

In his latest version of bracketology (Feb 14), the college basketball guru had Michigan State as one of the last four teams to make it inside the bubble. Lunardi didn't have Penn State inside the bubble or in the group of eight teams just outside.

Lunardi released these predictions before Michigan State's 71-61 loss to Ohio State on Feb 15 and before tonight's Penn State win over Minnesota.

The real problem with Michigan State

Here's the problem with Michigan State: 

Although they went out and scheduled a lot of tough teams, a very admirable challenge, their record against these teams is not good.

The Spartans have played eight teams ranked in the current coaches poll—they've lost to seven of them.  They've lost to No.2 Texas 67-55, No. 3 Ohio State 71-61,  No. 5 Duke 84-79, No. 10 Wisconsin 82-56, No. 11 Purdue 86-76, No. 12 UConn 70-67 and No. 20 Syracuse 72-58.

Their one win against a currently ranked team came in their first meeting against Wisconsin.  They needed to go to overtime to win 71-67.

It's not just that they've lost seven out of eight, it's the fact that they've lost these seven games by an average of 11.5 points.

The Spartans have three wins against teams that were ranked at the time they played ( No. 11 Washington 76-71, No. 13 Minnesota 71-62 and No. 22 Illinois 71-62).

These are good wins.

Michigan State is currently sixth in the 11 team Big Ten with a record of 6-7.

Where Penn State has the advantage over the Spartans

The Nittany Lions are in fifth place in the Big Ten with a record of 7-7. 

They've played four teams that are currently in the coaches Poll.  They've lost to No. 3 Ohio State 69-66  and No. 11 Purdue twice (83-68 & 63-62).

Penn State beat No. 10 Wisconsin 56-52.

Unlike Michigan State, the Nittany Lions have hung tough and lost to the ranked teams by an average of six points.

Penn State beat Illinois 57-55 when they were ranked No. 16, and they beat Michigan State 66-62 when the Spartans were ranked No. 19.  Michigan State returned the favor and beat Penn State 75-57 the second time they played.

Penn State has two bad losses to teams that were never ranked ( Maryland 62-39 and Maine 74-64).

Michigan State's worse loss was to Iowa, last place in the Big Ten (3-11), 72-52.

Who has a better chance of getting into the NCAA Tournament?

It's going to be interesting to see which one of these teams finishes higher in the eyes of the NCAA selection committee.

Michigan State has five regular season games left (Illinois, @Minnesota, No. 11 Purdue, Iowa and @Michigan).

Penn State has four regular season games left (@No. 11 Wisconsin, Northwestern, No. 3 Ohio State and Minnesota).

The easiest game on both of these schedules appears to be Michigan State's game with Iowa, but they lost to them the first time they played.

Penn State has to play the two toughest teams (@ No.11 Wisconsin and No. 3 Ohio State).

It would seem that both these final regular season schedules present about the same degree of difficulty.

Two things would suggest Penn State will finish with a better NCAA resume:  They've won four out of their last seven games while Michigan State has lost six of their last eight and they have played better against the ranked teams.

Both schools will play in the Big Ten Tournament.