NBA Power Rankings: Clouds and Silver Linings for the Top 10 Teams
As the All Star Game approaches, the NBA season is about to enter its stretch run. The contenders and pretenders have been sifted through, and there are now 10 teams who, according to Basketball Reference's Playoff Forecast, have at least a three percent chance of winning their conference and getting to the finals.
Granted, some of those odds are pretty long for some teams, and pretty short for others. Every team though has its clouds, and behind them a silver lining. The following slide show will present, in order of likelihood of winning their conference, the causes for optimism and concern of each of those teams, along with their chance of playing to meet President Obama this December.
10: Denver Nuggets
1 of 10
Chances: 3.2 Percent
Clouds: Provided that the team stays together and no one gets traded, there are still issues with which the Nuggets have to contend. Primarily, just about everything on their defense is broken. In the "four factors" of defense, they are ranked 22nd in opponent effective field goal percentage, 16th in opponent free throw rate, 29th in opponent turnover rate and 14th in opponent rebound rate.
When you look at the other Western Conference teams there are several teams that really know how to light it up. The Lakers and Spurs are both very good offensive teams and to go past the second round (or perhaps even the first round) the Nuggets are going to have to contend with one of those teams.
Silver Lining: The other side of the coin is that they have the offense to keep up with their defense. In fact they are the most efficient offense in the NBA. They are first in true shooting percentage and second in free throw rate as well as field goal percentage. Furthermore they make 18.1 field goals per game at the rim, best in the NBA. That's shooting you don't have to worry about going "cold" in the playoffs.
Assessment: Given a choice between a good offense and a good defense, give me a good defense. Since the merger, 30 of 33 NBA champions have finished in the top 10 in offensive rating and none have finished outside of the top half. When you get to the playoffs if you can't stop the other team, you don't win. As a result the Nuggets have almost no chance to win, with or without Carmelo Anthony.
9: New Orleans Hornets
2 of 10
Chances: 3.5 Percent
Clouds: The problem with the Hornets is easy to identify; the cause of the problem, not so much. The Hornets aren't just streaky, they're STREAKY. Their season has been nothing but streaks, going hot to cold like corning ware, from the freezer to the oven
When they allow 93 points or less they are 26-1. When they allow 94 points or more, 7-23. Hard to believe one point can make that big a difference isn't it? Precisely what the cause is, I don't know. It could be a combination of things, including injuries and pace. Generally it seems that Hornets are tough to beat when they force their game, and hard to beat when they don't.
Silver Lining: The good thing is that their game is the sort of game that thrives in the playoffs. Chris Paul is great at running a half court offense. Depending on who they get for the draw in the first round, they may upset a team and get to the second round. That may be as far as they can though as eventually they are going to run into a team like Los Angeles or San Antonio that can play any style.
8: Oklahoma City Thunder
3 of 10
Chances: 5.8 Percent
Clouds: The Thunder have problems in the paint. Only Toronto gives up more field goals at the rim. They are 27th in the NBA in points in opponents points in the paint, and they are 24th in efficiency differential in the paint. On the other end, the Lakers are first in efficiency differential in the paint. Needless to say in a seven game series against LA, the Thunder's weakness could be easily exploited.
Silver Lining: While they may get owned in the paint, they even it out at the free throw line. When it comes to free points, the Thunder are the best in the NBA at getting to the line with a FT/FG rate of .311. They are also the best in the NBA at making free throws, sinking 82.5 percent of their free throw attempts.
7: Dallas Mavericks
4 of 10
Chances: 7.6 Percent
Clouds: There are a lot of indicators that point to a first round exit for the Mavericks. Things that generally point to postseason success they don't do well. They are dead last in points in the paint, 27th in offensive rebound rate, 22nd in free throws made, and 25th in turnovers forced. In short, all the little things that point to managing possessions well and gaining extra ones aren't there.
Silver Lining: In spite of that they are seventh in offensive efficiency, and seventh in effective field goal percentage. They make their shots and that makes a difference. The other thing Mavericks fans can be encouraged by is that they play well against good competition. In fact, against teams that are over .500 they are the third best in the NBA in efficiency differential.
The question facing the Mavericks will be whether their shooting can hold up. If it does, they have shown they can compete with anyone. If they go cold though, they could be facing an early exit form the playoffs. Their tendency to play well against good teams though suggests that is unlikely.
6: Orlando Magic
5 of 10
Chances: 13.3 Percent
Clouds: Before the trades the Magic were giving up 92.85 points per game. Since the trades they are giving up 95.5 points per game. The other problem the Magic have is that they turnover the ball too much. They are 25th in the NBA in turnover rate. Not taking care of the ball can cost you games, particularly when you're playing against good teams.
Additionally, they have dropped to fifth in the standings and are vying with Atlanta for the fourth seed right now. If they don't get that fourth seed it could spell big trouble as winning four straight series with a home court disadvantage would be tough to do. There's a reason it's only been done once.
Silver Lining: On the other side of that coin, the Magic offense has improved. Before the trade they were scoring 96.58 points per game. Since the trade they are scoring 102.47 points. The difference in offense more than compensates for the difference in defense. In fact, they are outscoring their opponents by 3.24 points more than they were before the trade.
The question about the Magic is how much they can come together as a team before the postseason.
5: Chicago Bulls
6 of 10
Chances: 18.4 Percent
Clouds: Everyone knows the Bulls weakness is at shooting guard. Teams also know that the best way to play the Bulls is to double team and trap Rose the moment he crosses the half court line. It's a strategy that Charlotte and Golden State have employed to fluster him and win.
The lack of a threat at shooting guard gives teams the luxury of taking the risk of the double, or even triple team. The Bulls are looking for a shooting guard, but don't want to pay too much to get one. It's also true that last night putting in Kyle Korver who went 5-5 from the field, and hit all three from the three, solved the problem. Whether that's a long term solution or a playoff solution remains to be seen.
Silver Lining: More than half the teams that have won the NBA championships were Top 3 in defensive rating. The Chicago Bulls lead in that area, and this in spite of the fact that they've been absent their best defensive player for half the season.
They are two games out of the top seed in spite of the fact they've only played nine games with their starting five and none with all five at full strength. They've also won seven straight against Top 10 teams. They are also the best fourth quarter team in the NBA, outscoring their opponents by 2.6 points in the final frame. In short, if there's a team that has yet to realize it's full potential it's the Bulls, and it's not like they've been floundering so far.
4: Los Angeles Lakers
7 of 10
Chances: 27.2 Percent
Clouds: The Lakers have been losing to the elite teams pretty consistently. After they finally got a quality win in an impressive comeback over the Celtics, they followed it up with a tanking against the Magic. There's been a tendency to dismiss it with "they do this every year." That's a claim that isn't quite true.
They've already lost more games than when they won the title two years ago. Last year they didn't lose their 18th until March. They also finished with the top seed in the West both years. When you factor in that they've played the fourth easiest schedule so far and are facing teams with a winning record in 18 of their remaining 26 games it's not likely they are going to catch the Spurs for the tops spot.
In fact when you factor in that the Mavericks only face 12 more teams with winning records and are a game ahead of the Lakers, it's unlikely they'll even catch Dallas. Furthermore, Oklahoma City, who is only two games behind the Lakers, also play only 12 opponents with winning records. The Lakers could conceivably end up with the fourth seed.
While there are plenty of people who will tell you that last season Boston "proved the regular season doesn't matter" they'd be omitting one slight detail. Boston didn't win.
Silver Lining: They're still the Lakers, and they are still coached by Phil Jackson, and they are still led by Kobe Bryant. They are still the NBA champions and there's no getting past that. They as a group know how to win in the postseason.
They've established that. On the other hand so do the Spurs. The West could be headed for a conference finals for the ages as the two greatest teams of the decade and the two greatest players, Kobe and Tim Duncan, vie for the championship.
3: Boston Celtics
8 of 10
Chances: 35.8 Percent
Clouds: For a team that has the big men that the Celtics do, you would think that rebounding would be a strength. You would be wrong. In fact, they are 29th in the NBA in rebounds per game. If you think that's just a product of their league leading field goal percentage, you would be even more wrong. They're dead last in offensive rebound rate. The Celtics are a very complete team, but that might be the chink in their armor.
Silver Lining: They lead the NBA in field goal percentage and are third in field goal percentage against. Those are two very big factors when it comes to winning. They are 13th in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency, while third in differential. In short they are a complete team that does everything well. And oh yeah, they have four future Hall of Famers on the roster. In other words, they are complete and the only thing you can really find wrong with them is the rebounding problem.
The team they have to worry about is not the Heat; it is the Bulls. They've gone 2-1 against Chicago and one of those two wins was at home when the Bulls were without Boozer, and the game went to overtime because of an offensive foul called against Rose that could have gone either way.
That's not a complaint about the game, it's pointing to a certain issue. The Bulls play the Celtics really well. They have a defense that is even better than Boston's and is first in the NBA in limiting field goal percentage. They are also the best rebounding team that will be in the playoffs. Celtics fans should hope they don't draw the Bulls in the second round because they present a much more difficult matchup than Miami.
2: San Antonio Spurs
9 of 10
Chances: 50.6 Percent
Clouds: To be honest, it's hard to find one here. They're about as complete a team that exists. I've looked at about everything I can think of, and the Spurs are in the top 10 in pretty much everything. They are 19th in opponent offensive rebound rate and they are 25th in turnovers forced. All in all they have the fewest and smallest flaws of any team, which just might be why they have the best record.
If there's a real cloud here, it might be the one has yet to form. For a team with three stars in their thirties, they've had remarkably few injury issues. If there's an injury to one of the MV3 then that could be more than a spur in the side of the Spurs.
Silver Lining: In case it's not obvious, the silver lining is the lack of clouds. I would list everything they do well, but that would just be a listing of the team stats that exist. If healthy, I don't' see how anyone gets in their way to keep them from going to the finals.
1: Miami Heat
10 of 10
Chances: 54.0 Percent
Clouds: To be the best you've got to beat the best and that's where the Heat have struggled. They've dropped three to the Celtics and are 0-6 against the Top 5 teams. That's problematic. Apart from that, they've struggled when they have to run a set offense. They are 27th in the NBA in points in the paint.
Silver Lining: They have LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, arguably the two best basketball players in the world. There are, doubtless, kinks to be worked out, but if they get worked out, they could run the table in the postseason. They lead the NBA in point differential and in efficiency differential. In short they know how to play, they just need to put it together against the best teams.
Whether the Heat's struggles are because the team, as constructed, is not deep enough, or whether it's because they haven't played together enough remains to be seen. The Heat aren't going to be making it to the finals by beating up on the little guys though, they're going to have to beat an elite team in a seven game series. That's when we'll know which it is.
