Fantasy Baseball: 2011 First Base Projections

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When it comes to a power position like first base, everyone knows about the benefits of having an Albert Pujols on your team. But what happens if you can’t get Pujols in the draft? Everyone will look at last year’s stats and jump on players who put up huge numbers last season. But here are some sleeper first baseman who could have big years and some players you might want to avoid:

Sleepers:

Adam Dunn - Chicago White Sox 
Dunn has the potential to have a huge season this year. Dunn will be playing his home games in a park that ranked fourth in the majors in runs scored and first for home runs. The new park factored with the changes of not having to face the Phillies big three pitching staff or hit in the pitcher-friendly parks of Florida and the New York Mets should allow Dunn to hit for a high average and lead to more home runs and RBI.

Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins 
Morneau got less than 300 plate appearances last year after missing most of the season with a concussion. Morneau also has the benefit of hitting in a line-up with Joe Mauer, who is a hitting machine. Having Mauer in the line-up will give Morneau a chance to score a lot of runs if the Twins hit him in front of Mauer or give Morneau a lot of RBI chances if they hit him after Mauer. I also think a lot of people in drafts this year will forget just how good of a hitter Morneau really is and could be a steal in the sixth or seventh round of most drafts.

Carlos Pena – Chicago Cubs 
Pena had a horrific season last year, hitting under .200 and disappointing fantasy owners all over. Look for Pena to rebound this season, hitting in the middle of a line-up that could give him a lot of RBI and Run chances. Pena could be a player who could fall late, into the 14th or 15th round and would probably be worth the risk at that point given the potential

Avoid:

Paul Konerko – Chicago White Sox 
Konerko’s monster season last year was unexpected by almost everyone, look for a major drop-off. While Konerko still has the benefits of playing in U.S. Cellular Field and adding Dunn for protection. People in the draft will jump on Konerko within the first five rounds, but look for him to return to his normal form, which is about the 10th or 12th best first baseman.

Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers 
Fielder has the potential to be one of best hitters in baseball. However, none of the moves the Brewers made were designed to help their offense or RBI opportunities for Fielder. Also, Fielder is in the final year of his contract, which could be a distraction, and there have been rumors circulating for months about the Brewers looking to move him. I think all of those could be a distraction to Fielder and there is a chance he could get moved to a real pitcher-friendly park mid-season, which would tank his fantasy numbers.

Joey Votto – Cincinnati Reds 
Part of Votto’s success last season came from the surprise factor the whole reds team benefitted from in coming out of nowhere. However, the National League Central still has some of the top pitchers in baseball and saw some new additions that could cause Votto problems. The Cardinals will still have a good one-two combination with Carpenter and Wainwright and the Brewers could cause problems with the new additions of Greinke, Marcum, and Wolf if he can return to his old form. Votto is still a top hitter in the league, but is not worth the first or second round you would have to use to take him.

Aubrey Huff - San Francisco Giants 
There is a lot of hype around Huff after his post-season success last year and the Giants run to the World Series. However, Huff was an unexpected surprise for the Giants last season and his numbers will be hard to duplicate in a pitchers park like AT&T Field. The Dodgers improved their pitching staff this year by signing Lilly to a three-year deal and adding Garland.

Also, the Padres still have a good, young pitching core, so offense throughout the National League West could be hard to generate. The other factor to consider is that the Giants have one of the top prospects in baseball in Brandon Belt waiting to take over at first base. Huff could find himself out of the starting line-up and expendable early in the season if he struggles, similar to Bengie Molina last year with Buster Posey.

By Trey Nelson