Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers: Breakdown of Super Bowl XLV Matchups
If defense wins championships, then we're in for one heck of a title fight in Super Bowl XLV. The top two defenses in the league square off in Dallas, TX in the new Cowboys Stadium.
That doesn't necessarily mean, though, that we should expect a low-scoring game. This match-up also features two of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers.
Of course, the game will not fall entirely on either man. How, then, will the match-ups break down?
Note: We will look at a stat from FootballOutsiders.com known as defense-adjusted value on average (heretofore DVOA), which calculates the average value of a unit on a per-down basis. For example, a three-yard pass play on 1st-and-10 is seen as a negative play, but a three-yard pass play on 3rd-and-2 is seen as a positive play. It also takes into account the difficulty of the opponent.
Packers Passing Game Vs. Steelers Pass Defense
1 of 10
This is definitely the most difficult breakdown and advantage to determine, and it's just the first one!
The Packers ranked sixth in DVOA this season and were fifth overall. Aaron Rodgers is one of the game's better quarterbacks right now, and has some of the best receivers in the game to throw to in Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and James Jones.
The Steelers ranked 12th overall against the pass, but their DVOA was an astonishing second. They accomplished this by creating turnovers (21 INT, fifth in the league) and holding opposing pass attacks to just 15 touchdowns in the regular season. They're slightly off-pace in the playoffs, though, having given up three passing touchdowns thus far with just one interception.
And they haven't faced a quarterback quite as talented as Aaron Rodgers just yet. He is playing on another level, completing 71 percent of his passes for 790 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions in three playoff games this season.
Rodgers' ability to escape the pocket, read zone coverage and make plays on the run will serve him well against the zone blitz scheme of the Steelers.
Advantage: Packers
Packers Running Game Vs. Steelers Run Defense
2 of 10
The Packers' 11th-ranked rush attack in DVOA does nothing to stand up to the fierce Steelers run defense, which ranked first overall and first in DVOA.
With Ryan Grant going on injured reserve in Week 1, it would seem the Packers have had ample time to fix their issues at running back. James Starks has played moderately well in the postseason, having scored a touchdown last week against the Bears, but he's hardly the battle-tested back you'd like to have going up against a tough Steelers defense.
The fact remains that the Steelers are one of the league's best against the run, and after giving up a combined 105 yards to the Ravens and Jets in their two playoff games, they look as ready as ever. What a difference a Troy Polamalu makes.
Advantage: Steelers
Steelers Passing Game Vs. Packers Pass Defense
3 of 10
The second-ranked overall Packers defense ranked fifth in the league against the pass in 2010, and first in DVOA. They achieved much of their success due to the presence of 2010's probable Defensive Player of the Year Clay Matthews coming off the edge. Don't forget they also have the 2009 DPOY at cornerback in Charles Woodson.
Throw in the emergence of Tramon Williams as a viable No. 2 cornerback, and Nick Collins roaming the back end of the secondary, and it's no wonder they defend the pass so well. One underrated aspect of their pass defense, though, is their stellar pass-rushing 3-4 defensive linemen. Ryan Pickett, Cullen Jenkins and BJ Raji are one of the most formidable groups of down linemen in the league.
Against the Steelers, the Packers will need their defensive linemen to make plays on Ben Roethlisberger. It's much easier for Big Ben to escape the sack from a 260-pound linebacker than from a 300-plus pound defensive linemen. Wrapping him up is a must, to avoid him getting outside the pocket to make big plays.
The Steelers offensive line are still not 100 percent healthy, without their starting left tackle Max Starks. Now, with an ankle sprain ailing Maurkice Pouncey, this could become an area of importance in determining the outcome of the game.
Mike Wallace, Hines Ward, Heath Miller and Emmanuel Sanders are all good options, but if Roethlisberger doesn't have time to make his reads, they're rendered ineffective.
Advantage: Packers
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Steelers Running Game Vs. Packers Run Defense
4 of 10
The Packers finished ranked 18th overall against the run, and 16th in DVOA. They've had some shake-ups in their linebacking corps, whose job it is to "clean up" in run defense in the 3-4 system, while the defensive linemen soak up the blockers.
Pittsburgh's rush attack ranked 11th overall but 14th in the league this year in DVOA. Attribute it to injuries on the offensive line, but the Steelers rush attack isn't what it once was. Still, Rashard Mendenhall is a running back to be respected, and proved that much against the third-ranked Jets run defense in the AFC Championship. He carried the ball 27 times for 121 yards, a 4.48 yard-per-carry average and a touchdown.
Once again, the key will be the health of Maurkice Pouncey's ankle. Signs point to him being good to go, but if not, it could be a long day for Mendenhall.
Advantage: Steelers
Special Teams
5 of 10
Both the Steelers and the Packers feature suspect kick coverage units. The Steelers gave up a punt return for a touchdown against the Ravens that was called back on a penalty. And need I remind Packers fans of Dan Connolly's 71-yard rumble?
Neither, though, features an elite kick returner that can take advantage of that weakness.
Shaun Suisham is a solid kicker, but he did miss one just a couple of weeks ago against the Ravens, and he was cut from the Redskins before being signed to replace former Steelers kicker Jeff Reed in Pittsburgh.
Likewise, the Steelers put their talented punter Daniel Sepulveda on IR after the 12th game of the season, and have called upon Jeremy Kapinos as their punter. He averages 41.9 yards per punt, and has planted seven of his 18 boots inside the opponents 20. Tim Masthay, however, averages 43.9 yards per punt and has planted 25 of his 71 inside the opponents 20.
I think the advantage in this one is clear.
Advantage: Packers
Coaching
6 of 10
Often, the head coaching battle is one of the most intriguing in the Super Bowl. This year, however, the standout defensive coordinators for each team could put their stamp on this game. Dick LeBeau of the Steelers and Dom Capers of the Packers have both had tremendous success as coordinators with their respective teams.
And ultimately, this game will come down to which defense plays better and which quarterback can make the best "off-schedule" plays.
The Steelers have been here and have done this before. The coaching staff has valuable experience in this situation, with everything riding on this one game. It's hard to argue their track record, having appeared in three Super Bowls in the past six years.
Advantage: Steelers
Packers Must Stop...
7 of 10
LaMarr Woodley
In Dick LeBeau's zone blitz defensive scheme, the outside linebackers thrive. Both James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are elite pass rushers that must be accounted for on every down.
The thing about Woodley, though, is that he tends to show up in the big games. In fact, he has 10 sacks in six postseason games, including two in Super Bowl XLIII.
The Packers won't be putting an extra tight end to chip Woodley, so it will be up to Bryan Bulaga to win those one-on-one match-ups when he's asked to.
Steelers Must Stop...
8 of 10
Aaron Rodgers
Without a vicious rush attack to fear, the Steelers defensive game plan becomes simple—shut down Aaron Rodgers, and win.
The only question is how? It seems Rodgers is playing some of the best football of his life, and becomes even more unstoppable in the playoffs.
Rodgers excels at something Roethlisberger is known for—escaping a heavy rush. The Steelers love to blitz, but if they are going to do so against Rodgers, they need to bring him down to avoid being exposed on the back end.
X-Factor
9 of 10
Big game experience
The Packers have just two players on their roster who have been to the Super Bowl. The Steelers? Let's just say their third Super Bowl appearance in six years comes with its share of veterans to the big game atmosphere.
Will the pressure, the hype, and the media insanity of the Super Bowl play a role in the outcome? Who knows, but the experience in this situation must be comforting to the Steelers.
Conclusion
10 of 10
With two great quarterbacks and two great defenses, this game will certainly come down to the wire.
No one seems to be giving the Steelers a shot to win this thing, but the final possession will be where this game is decided.
Aaron Rodgers isn't easily rattled, and with the game on the line, the better quarterback should come through.
Green Bay Packers 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 24
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