Oregon-Oregon State: The Civil War Basketball Preview

Oregon Ducks

Record: 8-10 Overall, 1-5 in Conference (Last)

Key Players:

Joevan Catron-The redshirt senior is active for the game and will be key in the post, leading the team this season with 15.9 points and 6.4 rebounds.

EJ Singler- Mr. Everything is averaging 11.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, and a block this season, but he’s going to have to be at his best in Corvallis for the Ducks to have a chance.

Jeremy Jacob- Ducks have to get him going on the block to capitalize on possessions, and Jacob is their best, true interior player averaging 7.3 points and 4 rebounds this season.

X-Factor: EJ Singler.  As he goes, so does the team and it’s success.

Wildcard: Jonathan Lloyd.  When the freshman shows up, he provides a needed scoring burst off the bench that could make the difference down the stretch in a close game.

Key Stats:

The Ducks are among the Conference’s elite in field goal attempts, but are the worst in the Pac-10 in field goal percentage.  They also are last in defensive rebounds, but their hustle makes them one of the best teams on the offensive boards.  They are also among the Conference’s elite in free throw percentage, but last in free throw attempts.  They are also second in the Pac-10 in steals. 

Duck’s Breakdown:

Oregon always seems to have problems breaking the 1-3-1 defensive pressure of Oregon State.  On the offensive end, they will have to capitalize on their offensive opportunities, as there won’t be nearly as many as they are used to against the Beaver’s Princeton offense.  The Duck have struggled shooting the ball from 3 this year. In Corvallis, they will have to count on Garret Sim, Singler, and Jay-R Stowbridge from distance, as they account for over half the teams makes from 3 this season.  Point guard Malcolm Armstead has to make good decisions, as he has struggled this season, turning the ball over with nearly three times per game.  Oregon will also need Tyrone Nared to step up in the post and make plays defensively around the hoop.  Gill Coliseum has become a tough venue for the Ducks or any Pac-10 team to win in, and they are going to have to be playing well to get it done.

Oregon State Beavers

 Record: 8-9 Overall, 3-3 in Conference (T-5th)

Key Players:

Jared Cunningham-The sophomore sensation is having a breakout season with 14.6 points and 3.2 steals this season as the 1-3-1 point man.

Omari Johnson-He’s struggled recently in Pac-10 play, but putting up 8.9 points and leading the team with 6.7 rebounds per game.

Calvin Haynes-Inconsistent leader this season for the Beavs, averaging just 10.8 points in a disappointing senior campaign. 

X-Factor: Omari Johnson. He traditionally plays well against Oregon, especially at home from the perimeter.

Wildcard: Calvin Haynes. If he can get it going early, he adds another big worry for the Ducks on defense.

Key Stats:

The Beavers are tops in the conference in steals, largely thanks to Cunningham’s ability to harass opposing point guards.  They are also the leader in free throw attempts and makes.  Every other category, the Beavers are middle of the pack.

Beaver’s Breakdown:

Four players make up 70% of the team’s 3-point shooting, meaning that Cunningham, Johnson, Haynes, and Ahmad Starks could be crucial to their success from the perimeter.  Joe Burton, Haynes, and Cunningham make up 60% of team assists, and will be the key playmakers.  Look for freshman Devon Collier to emerge in the paint as well, as Oregon doesn’t have much size to contest the Beavers inside, as someone always seems to kill the Ducks in the interior.  They get solid contributions from Starks, Burton, Roberto Nelson, and Lathen Wallace, from which any of them are capable of stepping up.  With the exception of Cunningham, there really isn’t one player who dominates the team looks to in order to make plays.  There are plenty of capable playmakers on the roster, and it will be a matter of how many can get going.  If they can make Oregon play keep away and Cunningham reads the passing lanes, then they can take the Ducks out of their up-tempo element.

Game Prediction: 68-59 Oregon State

The Beavers have been a tough out in Pac-10 play in Corvallis under Craig Robinson.  Even with Oregon State as one of the biggest up-and-down teams in the nation, they have been solid on their home court so far.  Gill Coliseum will prove too much for Oregon, a team that hasn’t consistently shot the ball well and struggled to generate productive offense.  The tempo Oregon State creates and defensive pressure they apply will slow down the up-tempo offense and play to the Beavers advantage.  Look for low scoring affair with sloppy play and plenty of turnovers.