San Francisco Giants: Who Will Make the 25-Man Roster?
It's less than a month until pitchers and catchers report to Scottsdale, AZ for spring training. There are quite a few questions left to be answered this March for the defending champs, including:
Who is going to be starting in the outfield on Opening Day?
Is Pablo Sandoval ready to take over 3B again?
Will Brandon Belt be on the Opening Day roster?
For now, let's take a look at who the early favorites are to fill out the 25-man Opening Day roster for the 2010 world champion San Francisco Giants.
C: Buster Posey
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After a Rookie of the Year Award-winning rookie season in which he posted a .305 avg while handling the pitching staff like a seasoned veteran, Posey is a lock to be the Giants’ Opening Day catcher.
This December, the soft-spoken 23-year-old was the cover boy of ESPN The Magazine’s “NEXT” issue, honoring the top up-and-coming talents in professional sports. Posey’s work ethic and sheer talent have him in line for a great encore season.
Probability: a lock for Opening Day catcher
1B: Aubrey Huff
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Signing Huff to a one-year deal last January turned out to be a World Series-winning decision.
After years of question marks at first base, fan favorite Aubrey Huff was a huge asset for the 2010 Giants, posting a .290 average with a team-leading 26 homers, 86 RBI, 100 runs and .891 OPS. Yes, he did lead every single one of those categories.
Even if he has a slight regression in 2011, he is still one of the Giants’ top hitters and will likely slot somewhere 3-4-5.
Huff is a lock to start this season, but as we’ll discuss later, there is a slight chance that he could be the Giants’ starting left fielder when camp breaks.
Probability: a 90 percent lock for Opening Day 1B, 100 percent lock for the roster
2B: Freddy Sanchez
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This December, Freddy Sanchez underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder. He’s expected to have an eight-week rehabilitation program, which may put him a little behind schedule for spring training but should not stop him from being prepared for Opening Day 2011.
When he’s on the field and in the lineup, Sanchez is the Giants’ everyday No. 2 hitter, capable of putting up a .300 average with above-average defense at 2B. A former batting champion, when Sanchez is healthy (or shall I say not injured), he’s the mainstay at 2B.
Probability: a 100 percent lock for Opening Day 2B if fully recovered
SS: Miguel Tejada
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After Juan Uribe flocked to La La Land, the Giants went with the one-year quick fix of Miguel Tejada. Tejada is one of the league’s most durable veterans, having played 156 games or more in 11 of his past 12 seasons.
He’s certainly on the decline of his career, posting the lowest ISO of his career in 2010, and his lowest batting average of the past decade, but Giants fans should expect a bounce-back year for the former AL MVP. Maybe a return to the Bay Area is exactly what he needs.
The Giants signed Tejada to serve as their starting 3B or SS, and with the personnel in place, Tejada starting at short makes the most sense for 2011. If he can post similar numbers to Uribe’s 2010 season, Tejada will make for a good 2011 starter.
Probability: a 90 percent lock for Opening Day SS, 100 percent lock for the roster
3B: Pablo Sandoval
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After a rough 2010 campaign, capped off by a bench demotion during the postseason, the Kung-Fu Panda has been working his tail off this offseason, shedding 20 to 30 pounds in the process. Seriously, check out this photo.
I’m extremely glad to see that Pablo is working hard to shed the extra pounds and get back to being the hitter he was in 2009. 2010 wasn’t an awful season—he did bat .268 with 13 homers and 68 RBI—but Sandoval was nowhere near the hitter he was in ’09.
Mark DeRosa will push the Panda this spring training for the starting job, and even Tejada will be in the mix, but as long as Sandoval comes into camp healthy and proves that he can hit, he’ll be your Opening Day starter at the hot corner.
Probability: a 70 percent lock for Opening Day 3B, a 100 percent lock for the roster
LF: Pat Burrell
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Of all the projected starters, Pat the Bat is the most likely to be ousted from the starting lineup by Opening Day.
At the peak of their success in 2010, the Giants used Burrell for the first six innings of the game, and once they got the lead, Burrell and his subpar defense was subbed out for a defensive upgrade. Would the Giants continue that tactic as early as April?
Despite his below-average defense, Burrell showed immense offensive splits between playing DH and outfield in 2010. He simply won’t be as effective if relegated to first pinch hitter off the bench. Not only is Burrell a fantastic clubhouse guy (see “The Machine”), he also is one of the Giants’ only power threats in the lineup.
With Cody Ross and Andres Torres as starting outfield locks, Burrell will be pushed this spring training by guys like Aaron Rowand, Mark DeRosa, Nate Schierholtz and possibly even Brandon Belt for a starting gig. A big question this spring training will be how he recovers after ending the season with an 0-for-13, 11 K performance in the World Series.
Should he start, expect Burrell to fill a 4-5-6 spot and be one of the team's top run producers.
Probability: a 50 percent shot for Opening Day LF/RF, a 100 percent lock for roster
CF: Andres Torres
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We really don’t know what to expect from Torres in 2011. After having never had more than 185 plate appearances in a season, Torres had 570 PA in 2010, taking over full-time as the Giants’ leadoff man and spark plug. After a stellar 2010, the center field starting job is his to lose in 2011.
Torres is the perfect, typical leadoff man that you want for your team: a guy who makes contact, has plus speed and sets the table for the big guys. The Giants don’t have anyone else like him and need Torres to continue being the top of the lineup guy he was last year.
Probability: a lock for Opening Day CF
RF: Cody Ross
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Cody Ross was a huge reason the Giants won the World Series in 2010 (as if you didn’t know). For that reason, Ross should enter Opening Day 2011 as a starter, whether it is in right field or left field.
At the plate, Ross is a smart hitter and great in clutch situations, sometimes compared to Aaron Rowand (GASP!)...when he played for the Phillies. In the field, he’s got a good glove and is fast enough to man the spacious right field at AT&T Park.
Ross has earned his role with the Giants and should be a lineup mainstay in 2011. Nate Schierholtz, a superior defender, will push him for RF this spring training, but Ross is the more complete player.
Probability: a lock for Opening Day LF/RF
Backup C: Eli Whiteside
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Whiteside is a very serviceable backup for the Giants. Over the past year, he’s been used primarily to catch Jonathan Sanchez and give Posey a break. For that very reason, Whiteside deserves to be the Giants’ backup.
Whiteside is the only other catcher besides Posey on the team’s 40-man roster. The Giants invited four other catchers as non-roster invitees to this year’s spring training, but I don’t expect any of them to push Whiteside out.
Probability: a 99 percent lock for the roster
Backup 1B: Travis Ishikawa
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Ishikawa is the team’s premier left-handed pinch hitter. In 2010, Ishikawa batted .319 with just four strikeouts in 52 pinch-hitting appearances. He’s a great defensive replacement late in games and provides Gold Glove-caliber defense at 1B.
As great of an option as Ishikawa is, however, prospect Brandon Belt may spell the end of Ishikawa’s stay in San Francisco.
If Belt does not make the team out of camp, he’s bound to be up by midseason, disregarding any setbacks. With Huff already the starter, there is no reason to have three players who call 1B their primary position.
Probability: an 80 percent lock for the roster
Backup UTIL: Mark DeRosa
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DeRosa was the Giants’ big signing of the 2009-2010 offseason but due to injury missed the bulk of last season.
DeRosa’s value comes from the fact that he can play nearly any position on the field. He’s come up primarily as a 2B but for the Giants will serve as an outfielder or third baseman. DeRosa opened 2010 as the Giants’ starting left fielder and will certainly compete for the same starting role this spring training.
With Tejada likely to man shortstop, DeRosa comes into the season as the primary backup to 3B Pablo Sandoval, and if the Panda continues his struggles, DeRosa could easily be an everyday starter.
Probability: a 30 percent shot for Opening Day LF, a 30 percent shot for Opening Day 3B, a 100 percent lock for the roster
Backup UTIL: Mike Fontenot
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Fontenot should serve as the Giants’ backup middle infielder and all-around utility infielder with his ability to play 2B, SS or 3B. Fontenot doesn’t have the greatest arm from the left side of the infield, and the Giants prefer to use him mostly as a backup to the injury-prone Freddy Sanchez.
While he’s no stud, he’s not a bad utility option to have around and is a much cheaper alternative than Juan Uribe, who had a similar role early last season.
Probability: a 95 percent lock for the roster
Backup RF: Nate Schierholtz
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Schierholtz is an incredible defensive outfielder and will likely serve as a late-inning defensive replacement and occasional pinch hitter. In 2010, Schierholtz got off to a hot start and was in talks to be an everyday starter, but a frigid May-July killed those plans.
Due to his plus-plus defense and below-average offense, Schierholtz usually only plays right field and made quite a few appearances late in the 2010 season replacing Pat Burrell after six or seven innings.
Schierholtz will get the opportunity to throw his name in the mix for a starting outfield role this March but will need to show a capable bat since he’ll have to supplant Burrell. Schierholtz may also get the chance to play more this spring and early April, as he could get his name thrown around in trade talks with the Giants’ crowded outfield.
Probability: a 10-20 percent shot for Opening Day RF, a 90 percent lock for the roster
Backup OF: Aaron Rowand
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Rowand is on the books for $12M this season, the second highest figure on the team. Yet I think Rowand is on the chopping block of all the hitters, and should the Giants choose to go with 12 pitchers, he may be the player released.
The CF job has certainly fallen to Andres Torres, but Rowand can still have a great impact off the bench with his bat and glove. On defense, Rowand is an above-average center fielder with respectable range and good instincts, while on offense he is a capable hitter with above-average power. He makes for a great option off the bench.
The problem is, if the Giants bring up Brandon Belt or if they choose to roster an extra pitcher rather than hitter, Rowand, Ishikawa or Schierholtz is likely to be on the chopping block. Rowand’s argument for staying is his bat.
Probability: a 60 percent shot for the roster
SP1: Tim Lincecum
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Lincecum is the clear leader of the Giants’ stellar pitching rotation. Just 26 years old with two Cy Young awards and a World Series MVP on his shelf, Timmy is one of the league’s most dominant pitchers.
While 2010 was a slightly down season for Lincecum, he returned to his old, unbeatable form down the stretch and in the postseason. Look for that to continue in 2011.
Probability: a 100 percent lock for the Opening Day rotation
SP2: Matt Cain
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Cain is one of the best No. 2 pitchers in MLB and would be a borderline ace on a vast majority of MLB rosters. Cain is an absolute workhorse for the Giants: a top seven pitcher in innings pitched for the past three seasons, while keeping a sub-1.20 WHIP over the past two.
He had a magical 2010 postseason, going 21.1 innings pitched without an earned run, and is a permanent front of the rotation lock for years to come.
Probability: a 100 percent lock for the Opening Day rotation
SP3: Jonathan Sanchez
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When Sanchez is on his A game, he is arguably the Giants' best pitcher. That is scary to think about.
Sanchez certainly made strides towards becoming an elite pitcher in 2010, posting career lows in ERA (3.07) and WHIP (1.23) while ranking fourth in K/9 (9.54). However, his inconsistency is infuriating. In all three of his full-length seasons in the majors, he’s posted a BB/9 rate above 4.3 and in fact led the league in walks in 2010.
So long as Sanchez can continue to mature, he will have no problem sticking in the Giants’ rotation in 2011.
Probability: a 100 percent lock for the Opening Day rotation
SP4: Madison Bumgarner
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Bumgarner, a 21-year-old southpaw, was one of the Giants’ biggest surprises in 2010.
Bumgarner showed incredible maturity and command in his first season in the big leagues. He went 7-6 with a 3.00 ERA over 111 innings, including an incredible September where he posted a 1.66 ERA over five starts (32 IP).
After losing a starting rotation spot at last year’s spring training, Bumgarner will surely be in top shape heading into camp this March and will solidify his spot in the Giants' rotation.
Probability: a 100 percent lock for the Opening Day rotation
SP5: Barry Zito
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While most MLB rotations enter spring training with competition over the fifth rotation spot, the Giants are one of the few who don’t.
The Giants’ “other former Cy Young winner,” Zito enters 2011 hoping to finally put together a complete season. He’s a durable starter, but after posting a great first half of 2010, Zito went a horrid 2-10 after the All-Star break with a 4.70 ERA.
After being left off the Giants’ playoff roster, Zito should come into spring training 2011 with a strong desire to improve. Without a real threat on the 40-man roster and few starting pitchers ready in the minors, Zito looks like a lock for the fifth rotation slot come Opening Day.
Probability: a 99 percent lock for the Opening Day rotation
Closer: Brian Wilson
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Wilson is one of the top relief pitchers in the league and the media focal point of the Giants. He led the majors with 48 saves in 2010 with a 1.81 ERA yet is known even more for his black-dyed beard, mullet mohawk and orange cleats.
It would be sufficient to say that Wilson will enter the 2011 season as the Giants' relief ace and will look to build on his successful 2010 campaign.
Probability: a 100 percent lock for the Opening Day closer
Setup Man 1: Sergio Romo
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In 2010, Romo served as the bridge from the starters and occasional middle relief over to the closer. Romo had a stellar season, limiting opposing batters to a .204 batting average with a 10.16 K/9 rate and 2.03 BB/9 rate.
In the postseason, Romo started a little shaky against the Braves but went three innings of no-run ball over the NLCS and World Series.
After stranding 86.3 percent of runners in 2010, Romo should resume the role of right-handed setup man in 2011, pending a smooth spring training.
Probability: a 100 percent lock for the roster
Setup Man 2: Jeremy Affeldt
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After winning TYIB Setup Man of the Year honors in 2009, Affeldt had a down year in 2010, posting a 4.14 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, his worst numbers since 2006. Affeldt has great command and is a dominant ground ball pitcher (and double play inducer) and will look to rebound in 2011.
Despite having one of the best track records, Affeldt is the low man on the bullpen totem pole entering spring training. Without a true long relief specialist, Affeldt could potentially fall into that role, especially after his remarkable NLCS Game 6 relief appearance.
This March, Affeldt will look to regain his role as the Giants’ go-to left-handed setup man. He’ll be pushed in spring training by left-handed, 25-year-old Dan Runzler.
Probability: a 90 percent lock for the roster
Middle Relief/LOOGY: Javier Lopez
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Lefty One Out GuY (LOOGY) Javier Lopez was a huge midseason acquisition for the Giants in 2010 and made a huge impact on the Giants’ stretch and postseason run.
In 2010, Lopez was the true definition of a left-handed specialist, limiting opposing left-handed batters to a .162 average—and boy, was he special during the postseason, sitting down the Phillies' lefty duo of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley nine out of 10 at-bats, striking out Braves lefty Jason Heyward in both at-bats and inducing a lazy fly ball from Rangers lefty Josh Hamilton in their lone duel.
Lopez should enter 2011 as the go-to specialist out of the bullpen and will team with Jeremy Affeldt to be Bruce Bochy’s left-handed options.
Probability: a 100 percent lock for the roster
Middle Relief: Santiago Casilla
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Casilla was another huge addition to the Giants bullpen in 2010, posting a 1.95 ERA over 55.1 innings, highlighted by a 83.3 percent strand rate and 9.11 K/9 rate. At times, Casillla can be a bit erratic with his fastball, but that is pretty typical of young power pitchers.
Like setup man Sergio Romo, Casilla has a high K/9 rate, striking out more than one batter per inning, but will need to work on lowering his walk rate if he wants to be called upon as the team’s right-handed specialist in 2011.
Probability: a 100 percent lock for the roster
Middle Relief/ROOGY: Ramon Ramirez
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Ramirez was yet another journeyman, playing for his third team in three seasons, that made a dramatic impact on the Giants' playoff run in 2010.
In Ramirez’s 25 appearances (27 IP) after being traded from Boston, he posted a filthy 0.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. On the year, the 170 right-handed batters he faced were limited to a .188 average, making him the Giants’ premier right-handed specialist.
Although he had success in the regular season, Ramirez was smacked for six runs over four innings in the playoffs and will need to rebound this spring training in order to make the Opening Day roster. Non-roster invitee Guillermo Mota will push Ramirez for a roster spot this spring training.
Probability: an 80 percent shot for the roster
Just Missed: Hitters
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1B: Brandon Belt
Belt tore the cover off the ball in his first professional season to the tune of a .352 average with 23 HR, 112 RBI and 22 SB across three levels. As an encore, Belt remained hot through the Arizona Fall League with a .372 average and 1.043 OPS over 22 games against some of the league’s best youngsters.
He did struggle a little in AAA, which could cause the Giants to wait until midseason for a promotion, but he’ll be given every opportunity to win a starting job during spring training. I liken it a lot to how the Giants treated Buster Posey last March: lots of hands-on training and seeing how he reacts to MLB pitching.
Probability: 10 percent shot for Opening Day 1B/LF
SS: Emmanuel Burriss/Brandon Crawford
Miguel Tejada was signed to be a one-year fix at shortstop, but the Giants will certainly give these two youngsters looks during spring training for the future.
Crawford, 23, is not a great hitter but makes up for it with his defensive skills. Unless he has an incredible March, he is likely to start the year in AA working on his bat.
Burriss is the more likely of the two to land a backup role out of camp. Burriss has top-of-the-order potential, but after he missed all of 2010, the Giants will need spring training to see what they’re working with.
Probability: Five percent shot for the roster
Just Missed: Pitchers
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Long Relief: Dan Runzler
For the past few seasons, the talented 26-year-old lefty Runzler has been groomed to be the Giants’ future closer and lefty specialist. Well, with the emergence of Wilson, Lopez and the need for a sixth starter, Runzler has begun working on becoming a starting pitcher.
Runzler is not arbitration-eligible until 2013 and won’t be a free agent until 2016. This means the Giants have lots of time to work Runzler into a starting role and won’t have to throw him into a rotation spot right away.
Runzler’s best shot at making the big league team in 2011 will be in a long relief or sixth starter role, but it is unlikely.
Probability: a 10 percent shot for the roster
Middle Relief: Guillermo Mota
A non-roster spring training invitee, the hard-throwing Mota will try to beat out Santiago Casilla and Ramon Ramirez for a spot on the Opening Day roster this March.
In 2010, Mota was mainly used in mop-up roles when the game got out of hand and they needed a guy to simply finish the game. Mota was rarely chosen over any of the other guys when a game was on the line and ended the season with an average 4.33 ERA and 1.315 WHIP.
It’s doubtful, but should the Giants choose to go with 12 pitchers, rather than 11, Mota could work his way onto the roster as well.
Probability: a 15 percent shot for the roster
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