MLB Predictions: Reasons Why the Minnesota Twins Can Contend in 2011
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."—Rogers Hornsby
Spring training is so close now you can smell the freshly cut grass, the hot dogs and the beverages coming from the Cactus League in Arizona and the Grapefruit League in Florida. All signs point to baseball coming sooner rather than later.
Throughout this hot stove season, we have looked at many different aspects of the Twins, from free agency to the starting rotation to the middle infield and all points in between.
After all is said and done, the Twins have a chance to three-peat in 2011. It will be a very difficult task based on what the White Sox and Tigers have done this offseason, but the Twins are still the team to beat.
The following shows why they will contend and win the Central again.
Depth in the Starting Rotation
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Since the divisional playoff loss to the Yankees in October, the starting rotation for the Twins has taken quite a bit of heat. It seems that most people are upset with the lack of a "strikeout" pitcher the elite teams have at the top of their respective rotations.
Maybe this is a true statement, but strikeout pitchers don't necessarily come down the highway every draft. Yes, you have to develop them, but at some point you have to decide whether or not you can rely on a pitcher bringing it every night and consistently being around the plate.
Most power pitchers indeed have a high strikeout total but also have a high walk total. This last line goes against the Twins' pitching philosophy. The Twins use the "pitch to contact" philosophy and have had success with it.
The last thing you want to do is walk a hitter. They have to earn their way on. If that means a hit here and there, then so be it.
The rotation that is in place for the Twins has a mix of strikeout pitchers and control pitchers. Starting with Francisco Liriano and going down the line to Kyle Gibson or Nick Blackburn, all the Twins pitchers throw strikes. They are able to bring up pitchers from the minors who fit their philosophy of "pounding the strike zone" and therefore have developed depth. Liriano, Carl Pavano, Blackburn, Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing and Gibson all have low walk totals and pretty solid ERAs.
Having seven potential starters is a luxury that not all teams in the AL Central have. In fact, with the exception of the White Sox, you may be hard pressed to find a team that has four legit starters, let alone the seven the Twins can choose from. It breeds competition, and the best five will go for the Twins this year.
Bat Off the Bench: Jim Thome
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One of the worrisome areas for the Twins going into 2011 was the ability to keep their 40-year-old slugger Jim Thome in a Twins uniform for another season. Consider this worry gone.
Thome signed last week for the bargain basement price of $3 million for the year. Of course, this is $1.5 million more than last year, but if he can duplicate or even come in a tad below last year's numbers, it will be a HUGE bargain for the Twins.
Thome was scheduled to be a left-handed power stick off the bench but turned into a godsend when Justin Morneau went down with his concussion shortly after the All-Star break. All Thome did was lead the team in home runs with 25 and pick up the offensive production left by Morneau. Nobody in the division can bring in a power threat off the bench like the Twins can with Thome.
Ideally, the Twins would like him to serve the role that he started off the season last year doing by pinch hitting and occasionally DHing to keep his swing sharp. Having Thome again gives Ron Gardenhire some flexibility giving Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Morneau days off as needed and the threat of the home run late in the game.
The Return of Joe Nathan
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2011 will mark the return of All-Star closer Joe Nathan. Nathan had Tommy John surgery last March and missed the entire 2010 season. Nathan arguably is one of the top three closers in the game, and his absence last year forced the hand of GM Bill Smith into making the Matt Capps trade.
In all honesty, Nathan is the wild card for the entire Twins team this year. If he is close to 100 percent (which is unlikely, as it usually takes a year or two to fully recover from this surgery), he will either share time or take the closer's role back over and move Capps into a setup role.
Having two All-Star-caliber closers in the bullpen will help off set the losses of Brian Fuentes, Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier at least by an inning. If Nathan is healthy, the back end of the Twins bullpen will rival that of the White Sox (Chris Sale and Matt Thornton) and the Tigers (Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde).
However, if he isn't healthy, the Twins are in a world of hurt, as they would have to extend the bullpen one extra inning, presumably the eighth. With the names that were mentioned above, they served as the bridge to Capps in the ninth.
The other factor is Nathan's age. He will enter the season 36 years old and, as mentioned before, coming off major surgery. Can his arm and body hold up after missing the 2010 season? In order for the Twins to contend, they have to.
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The M and M Boys
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No other team in the division can boast two former league MVPs. You can make an argument that Morneau was on his way to a second MVP until he suffered his concussion in Toronto.
Joe Mauer is the best catcher in the game, period. His defensive skills are unmatched in the majors, and his offensive production is in a league of its own.
The key to the Twins' offensive season lies with these two All-Stars and their health. Morneau has to be able to play a full season, something he hasn't done the past two years, and he has to be able to play at a level he was prior to the injury last season.
Mauer is in the same boat. Two years ago, when he won his MVP, he missed the entire first month of the season coming back from surgery and then went on an absolute tear. Last year, he battled injuries in his knees and shoulder and missed significant time during the season. His production in the power department wasn't what it was before, and it can be surely blamed on the injuries.
The Tigers have Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera, while the White Sox have Adam Dunn and Paul Konerko. The way both Mauer and Morneau hit left-handed pitching, their offensive production should match or exceed in total numbers the other duos in the division.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka
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I have to be brutally honest here: I really hope he is worth the hype. It's not a coincidence that the picture include manager Ron Gardenhire. Gardy stated last year that his hope was to include more speed in this year's lineup.
With Orlando Hudson and J.J. Hardy not being huge base-stealing threats, the Twins went across the Pacific Ocean to sign Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Nishioka won the batting title last year for the Chiba Lotte Marines, as well as led the team in hits and runs. He also swiped 22 bases.
These numbers show a few things: 1) If healthy, he is going to score a ton of runs for the Twins. 2) He will be a solid No. 2 hitter. His hit total shows he can handle the bat, which is something Hardy did a decent job of last year. 3) He can run.
The Twins have gone from a "piranha"-type team with small ball and moving runners in the Metrodome to a power-hitting team at Target Field. It looks like Gardy wants a nice mix of both, and Nishioka will be the guy to provide that mix.
The Consistency of the Overall Lineup
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Over the past couple years, the Twins have had to mix and match at the end of the season to make their run at the division crown. The one constant has been the ability of the Twins to score runs regardless of who is in the lineup.
The Twins can hit for power with Kubel, Cuddyer, Delmon Young and Morneau or can hit for average with Mauer, Denard Span and Morneau. The key is they are good hitters. Not all power hitters, but good, gap-to-gap, line-drive hitters.
Dick Bremer, Fox Sports North baseball play-by-play announcer, always says, "You know when Morneau is hitting well when he drives the ball to left center."
Last year, Young flirted with .300 for most of the year, and ROY candidate Danny Valencia was above .310 with seven home runs and 40 RBI. You can take it to the bank that Morneau and Mauer will both be over .300, so throw in another solid season with Young and Valencia, add Nishioka and his potential and you have the makings of a solid hitting lineup.
Defense First Mentality
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The "Twins Way" has been a phrase that has been thrown out ever since the Twins started their run of AL dominance in the early 2000s.
Former manager Tom Kelly emphasized defense above all else, and it has stuck with his former third base coach, current manager Ron Gardenhire.
The Twins committed a total of 78 errors in 2010, which was good for fifth place in the majors. By contrast, the Tigers and White Sox finished 14th and 21st respectively.
More times than not, you have to give up something to have good team defense, be it speed or power. This isn't the case with the Twins. The solid 2010 campaign of rookie third baseman Danny Valencia brought a stabilizing presence to the left side of the infield with then-shortstop J.J. Hardy.
The 2011 left side should be just as solid with Nishioka taking over for Hardy, and Alexi Casilla will play second base with Morneau at first to give the Twins a solid infield. With Span in center, Cuddyer in right, Young in left and Mauer behind the plate, defensively the Twins should be at the top of the division.
Willingness to Deal at the Break
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Two of the three individuals in the above picture were acquired at the trade deadline or claimed off waivers in August.
Carl Pavano was picked up in a deal with the Indians in 2009, and Jon Rauch was acquired from the Diamondbacks that same year. You can add Brian Fuentes (Angels) and Matt Capps (Nationals), along with Orlando Cabrera (Athletics), as players that GM Bill Smith has added to the roster for the division run over the past couple of years.
Most of the teams in the Central division have made moves come the trade deadline, but none have paid off as much as the Twins' moves have. The Manny Ramirez experiment in Chicago last year didn't work well, and the Jake Peavy deal hasn't paid off yet, as Peavy has yet to pitch a full season.
Offseason deals can obviously fizzle or sizzle, but it seems Smith has had the Midas touch these past two seasons. If a deal is to be made for the Twins this 2011 season, you can bet Smith will pull the trigger if it helps the Twins remain on top of the Central.
It's the AL Central
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The AL Central has long been dogged as the weakest division in the American League. Looking at the success of the teams that inhabit this division, one could make a pretty solid argument that is the case.
The Kansas City Royals haven't had anything close to the success they had after winning the World Series in 1985, and the Cleveland Indians haven't had much to go on since the 1990s. Both of these teams are improving and should be contenders in the next couple of years, but until then, it's a three-team race.
Of course, as always, it will come down to who can win in the division, and the last couple of years the Twins have owned the other four teams in the division.
The Twins Are Still the Champions
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Regardless of what happens this year, the Twins will still be going into the 2011 campaign as two-time defending AL Central champions.
The proverbial bull's-eye will be on their back, and Detroit and Chicago have made interesting, aggressive offseason moves to catch the Twins. Still, it's up to both of those teams to catch and pass the Twins.
With the re-signing of Thome and Pavano and the signing of Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Twins have essentially the same team as last year, including, hopefully, a healthy Justin Morneau. For these reasons, the Twins will contend and will win the AL Central in 2011.
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