Oakland Raiders Look Better Five Times in a Pattern Recognition Model

Do you want to find a way to see the pattern of performance for the Oakland Raiders? When and where did the team improve? Aren't there many ways to see change, regression or improvement? Yes, so let's experiment. Let's have a little fun.

Five was assigned to a win, and zero was assigned to a loss. The sixteen games were coded, and bye week was not counted. Here is the coded data:

L= 0	W = 5
This Year	Last Year		Week
0	0	same	1
5	5	same	2
0	0	same	3
0	0	same	4
5	0	better	5
0	5	worst	6
5	0	better	7
5	0	better	8
5	0	better	9
0	5	worst	10
0	0	same	11
5	5	same	12
0	0	same	13
5	5	same	14
0	0	same	15
5	0	better	16

Observations

1. Nine out of 16 times the Oakland Raiders had the same results in a given week.

2. The first four weeks the performance was the same in 2009 and 2010.

3. The fifth week the performance was better with a win in 2010.

4. In the sixth week, the team loss the game and the performance was worst, using this coding system.

5.Week seven, eight and nine had outstanding performance.

6. The team regressed in the 10th week in 2010.

7. For five consecutive weeks after the slide backwards in week 10, the team's performance as measured by a win or loss was exactly the same in 2009 and 2010.

8. The good news is that in week 16, the team won, and the performance is coded as "better".

9. Overall, the performance when comparing the specified weeks, improved five times. If you divide five by 16, you get 31.35 percent.

10. The percentage of getting a better outcome is 31.25, a simple measure of efficiency.

11. The percentage of incidences of regression could be measured by two divided by 16. This is 12.5 percent.

12. The percent of incidences of constancy or remaining the same in terms of outcomes of a game during a specified week is nine divided by 16. This is 56.25 percent.

Conclusion

A measure of constancy is 56.25 percent which is a dominant statistic.

A measure of regression and going backwards during a given week is 12.5 percent.

A measure of improvement from 2009 to 2010 is 31.25 percent.

If you add 56.25 percent, 12.5 percent and 31.25 percent, you get 100 percent which accounts for the 16 week season, using this coding system and simple measure of performance to compare 2009 and 2010.

Let's hope for a dramatic improvement using this model and other more sophisticated models.

Go Raiders!