Carlos Boozer: How Will His Return Affect the Chicago Bulls?
The wait is almost over. Provided gym bags are kept out of his way, Carlos Boozer will finally make his debut in a Chicago Bulls uniform tonight against the Orlando Magic. The timing couldn't be better as the Bulls are playing back to back games against the two top teams in the East.
But how will his return affect the other Bulls? In this slide show I will go through the key players of the Bulls and consider how Boozer's return will impact each player, and why this will make the Bulls joined with the elite teams in the NBA.
But first, I'd like to address what you can see overall. With Boozer being such a threat inside the paint offensively you should see a lot more stability and consistency. There won't be these massive comebacks because there shouldn't be a need for them since he Bulls won't be so dependent on the outside shot.
Defensively, there shouldn't be much difference with the starters. Gibson and Boozer are comparable defensively. Boozer is an underrated defensive player who is better than his reputation. He's above average on man to man defense, but isn't good enough to give a lot of help defense. When he was paired in the front court with Mehemet Okur, Okur's weakness was often laid on Boozer.
As a unit the Jazz were much better defensively with Boozer and Paul Millsap on the court. Since Joakim Noah is one of the premier defensive centers in the league, Boozer won't be asked to do much beyond taking care of his own assignment, which he is very capable of doing. Some may wonder whether the Bulls will be as strong defensively. They will.
When the second unit is on the floor though, the addition of Gibson to that unit should help the Bulls be much stronger defensively.
Derrick Rose
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Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer are a downright scary combination for the rest of the NBA. Some have said this is like Deron Williams and Boozer last year. That's not true; as a combination this is more lethal. Rose is better to the rim than Williams is.
The two will form the most dangerous pick and roll in the NBA today. Rose is already commanding the attention of entire teams—forget mere double teams. Giving him an option in the paint that can play with his back to the basket as well as anyone, and who can score with either hand, (provided they aren't broken) just gives him an extra dimension.
Rose's scoring may go down slightly, but not that dramatically. He's still going to be taking over at the end of games. it's likely that he'll maintain an average of 25 points per game. However his assists will likely take a big jump, perhaps to ten assists per game. If he is able to score 25 per game with 10 assists he would be the first player since 1990-91 since Michael Adams, and only the fourth in NBA history to do so.
Luol Deng
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The much maligned Luol Deng should benefit in two ways. First, with Rose and Boozer both drawing consistent double teams, Deng should get a lot of wide open looks. He's already taking and making three pointers at a career high. That could actually go up as Deng will get more wide open looks.
The other thing that should change is Deng should stop disappearing in the fourth quarter. He is presently 4th in the NBA with 39.7 minutes per game. Part of the reason for that is he's playing spot duty as a power forward. Boozer's return will mean that he's not needed to do that, and in turn Deng's overall minutes will go down. That means that he'll be fresher in the fourth quarter.
It also should mean that there will be some improvement in his 3 point percentage. At least I think it should. It seems a lot of his misses in the latter parts of the game are coming up short. A little extra rest could solve that problem. Overall his scoring should go up slightly, as should his field goal percentage, but his rebounds might go down a bit.
Joakim Noah
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Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer will form one of the top three power forward/center tandems in the NBA. The other two being the Lakers with Bynum and Gasol and the Jazz with Jefferson and Millsap.
Offensively the two should really work well together. Noah is an outstanding interior passer, something which has been a revelation to us this year. Carlos has fantastic hands (when they aren't broken). The result should be that Noah will have the option of passing it to Boozer or go to the rim. If he's guarded, then that means that Boozer isn't double teamed. If Boozer isn't double teamed, he can beat almost anyone one on one in the post.
Of course Noah can always put up one of those "tornado" shots of his as well, which he's shown that he can make with consistency, no matter how strange it looks. The two together should present a lot of matchup problems for defenses. Noah isn't the best scorer in the league, but he's enough of a threat, and combined with his passing ability, he has to be accounted for.
This is the real beauty of the Bulls offense. There are four players that are real threats, and two players which command double teams. If you do the math, you figure that comes out to six defenders that are needed. With only five players on the court that means you're always going to have a mismatch somewhere. It's why the reports of the Bulls needing another player who can create his own shot are greatly exaggerated.
With Noah you should see a slight dip in scoring, but his rebounding shouldn't change that much as Gibson was grabbing plenty of boards in his own right. Additionally you should see his assists go up as he will have plenty of opportunities to dish it under the basket.
Keith Bogans
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Let's be clear here; Keith Bogans wasn't brought in for his offense. He's been a good defensive presence, but hasn't been much on offense. His best game of the season was only 14 points. That's not going to change. Perhaps there might be a slight increase in his scoring as he will be completely ignored by defenses. Of course that might mean he just misses a couple more shots a game too.
That doesn't mean he doesn't have value. He and backup Ronnie Brewer have been keys to the defense. They have been particularly crucial in several of the defensive stops that have keyed the Bulls comeback performances. Don't expect Bogans or Brewer to be much different as a result of Boozer's return.
The Bench
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Kyle Korver has spent more time at the forward positions this season than as a shooting guard. That should probably change. Similar to Deng you should see more three point opportunities for him, so you can look for those to go up.
Taj Gibson will move to the bench where he'll combine with C.J. Watson to form a kind of "mini-me" tandem like Rose and Boozer. Gibson's minutes will go down but Thibs has said he will still be used a lot. His numbers will take a dip, but the bench will be really strengthened by his move there.
Omer Asik, along with Gibson and Noah, will benefit from the practice time with Boozer. Think of the Lakers game, with Shanon Brown showing a completely different game than the Shanon Brown who played for the Bulls. You could tell he's really benefited by playing with Kobe.
You'll see a similar kind of growth in the Bulls big men in their work underneath the basket. For instance we should see Omer learn to just go up to the basket instead of doing that multiple bobbing things he does.
Fortunately, we shouldn't be seeing a whole lot of Scalabrene any more.
Tom Thibodeau
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Carlos Boozer's return, accompanied by a generous schedule should have an affect on one more Bull, their coach, Tom Thibodeau. From December 11 to Jan 8 the Bulls have only one opponent with a winning recored, and they only face four opponents with a winning record between Dec 11 and Jan 28. That should mean a lot of meaningless fourth quarters and a lot more time for the starters to grab some bench—and their coach too.
