NHL Long-term Strategy Needs a Rethink

If Gary Bettman and the NHL's dream of landing a lucrative American television contract becomes possible, they might be wise to limit to the coverage to certain American teams.

It would be embarrassing to allow cameras into arenas where too many empty chairs masquerade as fans.

Bettman was hired to ultimately reach that goal: to make hockey a "Big Four" sport in the United States, complete with an American TV contract that would make all its franchises wealthy.

Instead, television coverage of hockey in America has shrunk under Bettman. No longer is hockey available on the large ESPN network; it's limited to the restricted viewing of Versus.

Bettman's strategy to increase television ratings was to expand the league into unfamiliar hockey markets in hopes of it becoming a national game. The result has been decidedly mixed, with more negatives than positives. Several franchises are losing money each year, and there has been no sign of any turnaround. Bettman pointedly ignored placing more teams in Canada and the northern United States where the sport has deep roots. Instead, he abetted the process by stripping teams from Quebec, Winnipeg and Hartford and shifting them southwards.

But the empty seats this year in many American markets make Winnipeg's tiny arena, and even the ancient arenas of Quebec and Hartford, look like palaces.

As for shunned and hated Hamilton, which already has a small-size NHL arena in place and was willing to spend the money to upgrade its facility to over the NHL median of 18,000...the NHL's continuing effort to make southern Ontario the monopoly of Toronto and Buffalo is just laughable and inexcusable.

Bettman thinks that because of the success of this year's Olympic tournament in Vancouver, he will be able to negotiate a much richer American television contract.

But the bad attendance in many markets will undoubtedly hinder his efforts to get much of an increase, if any. Still worse, the bad attendance can't be limited to "southern cities." In fact, there are many shocking examples of bad attendance in "natural" markets.

The attendance figures also illustrate the failure of not only the NHL, but all major professional sports leagues to account for and take action about the devastating recession that has hit North America. Even the mighty NFL has felt the pinch in some markets.

All these sports leagues like to boast about their charity work and "being active the community," but none have taken any positive action that is the best charity of all: placing down-and-out people in good-paying jobs that put money in their pockets.

Their inaction reflects the growing elitism in North America; better full luxury boxes than full arenas and stadiums. North American professional sports leagues are more willing to cater to an "aristocracy" (in all but name) than to the "common fan."

But it is most visible in the NHL, where many arenas are half-full or filled with "fans" who obtained tickets at tremendous discounts.

Below is a list of how the NHL teams are faring this year.

THE POSITIVES

The Six Canadian Franchises

All these teams get automatic sellouts, with the exception of Ottawa. Even with bad teams in Calgary, Edmonton and Toronto, hockey is still "Canada's game." Last year, revenue from these franchises counted for over 30 percent of the NHL's income. That percentage will increase if American attendance continues to fall. 

Just why isn't Hamilton awarded a franchise? And even if Winnipeg and Quebec played in their old arenas, the salary cap and the par value of the Canadian dollar would make these cities profitable. 

Nothing wrong, north of the border.

The Four "Original Six" American Franchises

All four of these old franchises sell out, though Detroit has been hit hard by the recession. They are the first example of a city where sports leagues need to do more than just specialized charity. Chicago has become the "poster boy" franchise of the NHL, the one Bettman points at whenever he has to justify maintaining money-losing American teams. 

"If Chicago can be turned around, so can all the rest."

Philadelphia

Probably the best American NHL expansion team ever. No problems here.

Pittsburgh

They finally have their long-term home. But Pittsburgh's attendance falls when the team goes bad. With Crosby and Malkin, that won't happen for a long time.

Washington

Just like Pittsburgh, Washington's attendance is based on a star player—in this case, Ovechkin. It also doesn't hurt when the competition, the Redskins, the Nationals and the Wizards, are all bad teams.

Buffalo

They don't sell out automatically anymore, despite having one of the best arenas in the NHL, and they rely far too much on the southern Ontario market. One wonders how much marketing they do in northwestern New York State. Buffalo has been hard hit by the current recession, and the NFL Bills are in danger of moving. 

Buffalo is the classic case of rich sports leagues needing to do more to boost the local economy instead of taking from it.

Tampa Bay

They won a Stanley Cup during the last decade, but ownership squabbles frittered away the gains made in the market. But the ownership issue has finally been resolved, and Tampa Bay fans know they have a good team that is a Cup contender. 

Tampa Bay may be the one exception of a southern team becoming an NHL success.

Carolina

A reluctant positive. Carolina won the Stanley Cup, but attendance falls when fans believe the team is bad. Still, they should be given the benefit of the doubt—for now.

Minnesota

Somehow the North Stars couldn't make it in an American "natural" market. But there have been no problems with the Wild despite having bad teams most of the time.

St. Louis

They have had problems, but that should end now that St. Louis has an improved team.

Los Angeles

They have a Cup contender now.  There are no problems here.

San Jose

They have the rich Bay Area all to themselves, and they have been Cup contenders for over half a decade. No problems here.

THE NEGATIVES

Florida

They haven't made the playoffs for nearly a decade, and a huge number of the fans that do turn up get their seats at large discounts. If the Panthers leave town, they won't be missed.

Atlanta

The Thrashers are following in the footsteps of their predecessors, the Flames. They have only made the playoffs once and never won a game. It is unlikely they will make the playoffs this year, too. 

Atlanta is always the second American team mentioned after Phoenix as the one likely to be moved.

New Jersey

They have always been the poor sister of the New York market, the team everyone watches after the Rangers and Islanders have been eliminated. Despite having a winning tradition, including three Stanley Cup victories, that image has never changed. They were forced to move from a large arena to a smaller one, and they have overpaid for Kovalchuk. 

What will happen to this franchise when it stops winning and becomes a bad team for several years?

New York Islanders

When one remembers back 30 years ago to when this team became one of the NHL's legendary dynasty teams, the present situation is the saddest in the NHL. The Islanders now lead the league in worst attendance, even below that of Phoenix, with most games now attended by fewer than 10,000 fans. 

Not even No. 1 draft choice, John Tavares, can draw fans. The team is so bad they have now lost 12 games in a row, and the playoffs are out of reach even before the end of November. The NHL likes to blame the trouble on the team's arena, which is the smallest in the NHL, but what's the point of building a new one when they can't come close to selling out the old one?

The Islanders and Devils are making an argument that three hockey teams are two too many in New York.

Columbus

There is something puzzling about the hockey geography of the United States. For some unaccountable reason, there are pockets of bad attendance areas in the northern United States, which should be hockey hotbeds but aren't. The most notable one stretches from the western boundary of Pennsylvania to the eastern borders of Illinois and includes the entire states of Ohio and Indiana. Indianapolis's and Cincinnati's WHA teams folded in the league's final season, and when Cleveland briefly had an NHL franchise, it set a record for poor attendance and was run out of the region within two years. 

The NHL hoped that after a 20-year absence, the bad vibes would be gone after Columbus got a team, but the accumulative bad teams have killed whatever enthusiasm there was. It was hoped that when Columbus finally made the playoffs the team would be turned around, but they failed to win a playoff game and last year reverted to their old form. 

Attendance still hasn't recovered from that step backwards.

Nashville

They have always been a brittle team from the moment of their birth, from the ownership down to the players. The team has had better success than Atlanta and Columbus but still hasn't won a playoff round. 

They are always mentioned when there is talk about shifting franchises.

Anaheim

They have always been the poor sister of the Los Angeles market despite winning the Stanley Cup. They got off to a bad start this year but have rebounded nicely. Still, they are not selling out despite the Cup win and the fact that they have been a better team than the Kings for most of the last decade. 

They deserve better attendance than what they are getting now.

Dallas

Every team that plays in the shadow of the Dallas Cowboys suffers, and the Stars are no exception despite having won a Stanley Cup. Attendance is down, and one is given the impression that hockey is only fashionable when the team contends and is ignored at all other times.

Phoenix

What more can be said about the team most likely to be moved? Attendance is patchy despite a good team because nobody is sure about the team's future. They still haven't had an owner for nearly two years. Just last month, it was rumored that the NHL finally had someone lined up to take the team off their hands, but no final deal has been signed, and now it is just over a month before the team can be legally bought and moved. 

The desert sands are beginning to run out in the hour glass...

Colorado

What are they doing on the negative side of this list? This is supposed to be an American hockey hotbed. This is the most shocking of all the teams in this predicament. They have a Stanley Cup tradition of two victories. Last year they had a contending team again and played well against San Jose in the playoffs. They have a good record this year. But last week against the same San Jose and St. Louis, they only drew less than 13,000 fans. The Broncos deserve this treatment, not the Avalanche. 

They had bad attendance at some games last year, and lots more this year. What's even more humiliating for Gary Bettman is that this is the ex-Nordiques team he stripped from Quebec.

The final score is Positives 19, Negatives 11. When you deduct the Canadian teams, the score is 13-11. That's not good news for a league trying get a lucrative American television contract.

The league needs to rethink its long-term strategy, but it won't under Bettman's leadership and its greedy owners.

A good switch in direction would be to place more teams in Canada while the dollar is good, and shift teams to real American hockey markets like Seattle, Portland, Milwaukee and the discarded Hartford. Setting up a European NHL branch is another riskier path.

But how long can the NHL continue to follow the present path?

Barring a miracle, Phoenix is likely to fall next year. Too many other teams are on thin ice.

Better that the NHL do something now voluntarily instead being forced to do it later with a gun to their head.