NFL Week 6: Game-By-Game Picks Against The Spread and Fantasy Football Rankings
Week Six is the time where we find out what teams are contending, what teams are pretending, and what teams are just God awful.
Plenty of teams have fork-in-the road type games this week where playoff berths could be decided in multiple games this week.
Can Brett Favre bounce back from yet another sub-par performance? Are the Cowboys finally succumbing to the curse of Wade Phillips' ineptitude? Will Jim Caldwell ever blink?
Well that's why I'm here, to answer those questions. (Other than Caldwell, we all know he doesn't blink.)
Without further ado, here are my Week Six picks against the spread.
Season to Date:
Last Week: 8-6
Season Record: 39-34-3
Lock of the Week Record: 2-3 (oye)
San Diego (-8.5) Over St. Louis
1 of 20
Week six should be the time where we begin learning what teams are truly Super Bowl contenders, merely playoff teams, and so on.
This game we're just trying to figure out which team doesn't suck.
Is St. Louis going to be the scrappy team that suffered two one-possession losses in the first two weeks then followed it up with two impressive wins? Or will they be the team that lost by 41 to the previously-winless Detroit Lions?
Are the Chargers simply sleeping through the first quarter of the season as they have done in years past or is this team finally going to succumb to their yearly game of Russian roulette?
Judging from this pick, it's obvious to see I think San Diego is simply off to yet another slow start while St. Louis is more like the team that lost by 41 than the team that put a clown suit on my Redskins.
The Chargers make highly correctable mistakes, while the Rams simply suffer from a dearth of talent due to the perpetual mistakes and misjudgments of their front office.
With No. 1 receiver Mark Clayton out for the rest of the season, Rams rookie QB Sam Bradford only has one receiver on the roster (Danny Amendola) that he's shown any trust in. If San Diego keys on stopping Amendola and Jackson, Bradford and the Rams could be in for a long day.
Final Score Prediction:
San Diego 34
St. Louis 13
Houston (-4.5) Over Kansas City
2 of 20
Matt Cassel sucks. I mean he really sucks. Like, he's on a level of suckery so high that last week the words "Why don't they put in Brodie Croyle" seeped from my mouth.
Put any replacement-level or higher level QB in Kansas City and the Chiefs are easily my favorite to win the AFC West. The team has superb coordinators (the job that Crennel did last week on Peyton Manning was fantastic), two really good RBs, a solid offensive line, and one hell of a home-field advantage.
But, sadly, Cassel is the best Kansas City can throw out there on a weekly basis.
Houston, on the other hand, looks to be adding to their collection of disappointing seasons. After starting out as a pre-season darling once again and destroying the Colts Week One, the Texans became an en-vogue Super Bowl pick.
Now sitting at 3-2 with their best player battling nagging injuries and their Pro Bowl QB looking un-Pro Bowlian, Houston is staring at a crossroads in what could be another disappointing season.
Semi-bold prediction: Winner of this game makes the playoffs, loser does not.
Schaub rights the ship with a healthier Andre Johnson and Houston wins easily.
Final Score Prediction:
Houston 27
Kansas City 16
New England (-3) Over Baltimore
3 of 20
I had a 200-plus word preview for this game prepared earlier this week where I was picking Baltimore. My theory (along with about a billion other analysts) was that losing Randy Moss was going to tighten coverages on Wes Welker, suffocating the Pats short-pass-instead-of-run style and that Baltimore would win in a close game.
Then I remembered the three certainties in life: Death, taxes, and the Patriots winning after their bye week.
Since Bill Belichick took over as head coach in 2000, the Patriots have lost just twice following a bye and have not done so since 2002.
In all honesty, I still have all the feelings I did at the beginning of the week. Baltimore is more talented on both sides of the ball, destroyed New England last year in the playoffs, and have the pleasure of not having to scheme for Randy Moss.
But New England has Belichick. And, until proven wrong, that's all that matters.
Final Score Prediction:
New England 20
Baltimore 14
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Tampa Bay (+4.5) Over New Orleans
4 of 20
In my season preview, I took plenty of flack from Saints fans for my assertion that their defense wasn't going to be the ball-hawking behemoth that helped guide them to a Super Bowl championship in 2009 and especially for predicting a .500 record for this season.
Five weeks through the 2010 season and New Orleans looks no better than a 10-6 and first round ouster team while the defense has sorely missed the leadership and playmaking skills of Darren Sharper.
But just as I feel vindicated in my Saints pre-season prediction, I should feel just as horrible in my Bucs prediction.
After telling everyone to bet their entire college tuition/mortgage on the under of 5.5 wins for Tampa this season, it seems hypocritical for me to be jumping on the Bucs bandwagon...but here I am, baby!
I love watching this team play. Every single play looks like a complete trainwreck until Josh Freeman makes a Roethlisbergerian play and throws a perfect 15-yard out with three man draped all over him. They're like watching the football equivalent of a high-wire act.
This game has all the makings of a sleepy post-Super Bowl hangover team being taken by surprise by a young, scrappy, do-anything-to-win type team.
Final Score Prediction:
Tampa Bay 16
New Orleans 14
Atlanta (+3) Over Philadelphia
5 of 20
With Michael Vick likely sitting out this Sunday, this game is, well, completely uninteresting.
Sure you get two good football teams playing each other, and this should be one of the best games of the week, but it's not the same.
It's like all your friends telling you that Jessica Alba has a nude scene in a movie, and when you're the first one in line by 55 minutes to see the movie, it turns out to be Jessica Simpson post-weight gain. Sure you'll still watch it and relatively enjoy it, but it's not the same.
With Vick both out, Atlanta should win this easily, but if the Falcons have taught us anything this year, it's that they hate taking the easy way.
They still win, but it's closer than it should be.
Final Score Prediction:
Atlanta 23
Philadelphia 17
New York Giants (-10) Over Detroit
6 of 20
With Calvin Johnson probably sitting out this week with a shoulder injury and the Giants going through their October phase of their yearly "look like the best team in October only to fold in December" charade.
This has all the makings of a blowout.
Look for big fantasy days out of Eli Manning, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Hakeem Nicks.
Final Score Prediction:
NY Giants 35
Detroit 10
Pittsburgh (-13.5) Over Cleveland
7 of 20
Poor Colt McCoy. Poor, poor, poor, poor Colt McCoy.
Starting a rookie QB who looked absolutely incompetent in the pre-season is a horrible idea to begin with, but starting him against the No. 1 defense in the league on the road?
Eric Mangini should be fired if Colt McCoy takes one snap Sunday. Throw out gimpy Jake Delhomme; no one is going to care if he gets destroyed.
Hell sign someone off a practice squad; coax Trent Dilfer out of his ESPN job, put Elizabeth or Tim Hasselbeck back there. Anyone but your supposed quarterback of the future.
It's a suicide mission on Colt McCoy's career.
Oh, and Ben Roethlisberger is back. Look for him to get cheered like he just came home from Iraq.
Final Score Prediction:
Pittsburgh 28
Cleveland 3
Chicago (-6.5) Over Seattle
8 of 20
I'm going to go out on a limb here and say Jay Cutler isn't going to get sacked nine times in the first half this Sunday.
And, in games where Cutler hasn't been sacked nine times in the first half, he's been fantastic this season, compiling his highest career QB rating and completion percentage.
Plus, Seattle has been plain horrible on the road so far this season, having being outscored 51-17 in two games away from Qwest Field.
Being without linebacker Lance Briggs won't hurt this week as much as it would against a quality football team.
Bears win going away.
Final Score Prediction:
Chicago 24
Seattle 10
New York Jets (-3) Over Denver
9 of 20
Earlier I spoke about how wrong I was about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, well, I was, well, wronger about the New York Jets.
They are the best team in the AFC, bar none.
Mark Sanchez has all the makings of a mature second-year quarterback. LaDainian Tomlinson has a fire lit so far up his ass its only comparison is Jerry Rice's first two Raiders seasons. The defense is nearly as formidable as last season (despite Darrelle Revis' injury problems) and the receiving corps is much-improved over last year.
According to Football Outsider's DVOA rankings, the Jets are the third best team in football while the Broncos are the 25th best team.
The Jets also have a distinct special teams advantage coming in at No. 5 in comparison to the Broncos weak No. 27 ranking.
Getting only three points on the road against a questionable at best Denver team makes this pick one of the easiest lock picks of the week.
Final Score:
New York Jets 23
Denver 13
Oakland (+6.5) Over San Francisco
10 of 20
Why does Vegas still think San Francisco has any life whatsoever left? Do line-makers subscribe to 49ers owner Jed York's line of drunken texts or something?
I mean there's a such thing as sticking to your guns, but this is like trying to save chairs on the Titanic. The ship is sinking, just let it go.
All that said I think the 49ers win Sunday, but don't cover. If you would have asked me Wednesday (before the word that Bruce Gradkowski wasn't playing leaked), I would have picked the Raiders to win straight up.
But not now.
What kind of world do we live in that Raiders losing Bruce Gradkowski made me change my pick?
I guess one in which Jason Campbell (a player who I have way too much experience watching) is still an NFL starting quarterback.
Final Score Prediction:
San Francisco 23
Oakland 20
Dallas (+1.5) Over Minnesota
11 of 20
How many times can you say that a game comprised of two 1-3 teams is the game of the week?
The loser of this game probably doesn't make the playoffs, and considering the fact that both were Super Bowl favorites prior to the season, this game is kinda a big deal.
And considering how far the Vikings pushed their chips into this season, it's absolutely pivotal that they come away with a win.
I just don't see it happening.
Much like the San Diego, Dallas makes insanely correctable mistakes. Penalties, turnovers, and lapses in mental judgment have plagued Dallas' high-powered offense as well as their still-talented defense. Sure you could say that the team is finally falling victim to the incompetence of Wade Phillips, but I just don't see it.
The Vikings, on the other hand, have problems that delve far deeper than mental mistakes. They have a fundamental power struggle between their head coach and star player, a player who is going through both relationship and physical strife. They added a diva wide receiver thinking that he would instantly evaporate their problems and I have a feeling that he will only continue to exacerbate them.
In summation, Dallas is fixable. Minnesota is not. Dallas wins.
Final Score:
Dallas 14
Minnesota 10
Indianapolis (-3) Over Washington — Lock of The Week
12 of 20
ESPN.com's Bill Simmons says it best, "Never bet against Peyton Manning in a nationally televised night game."
It's like gambling suicide.
And, though I realize that betting against your team is blasphemy, I'm a realist. I've watched every Redskins game. They're not good.
The offense is reliant on a semi-washed-up quarterback finding semi-washed-up, completely washed-up, or 27-year-old former practice squad receivers, while the running game relied on two washed-up backs before choosing another former practice squadder to take over that spot.
In other words, the offense isn't talented.
And while Peyton Manning looked less than Manning-like last week and the offense is once again riddled with injuries, I just cannot see Manning going before 20+ million fans and being anything less than spectacular.
Final Score Prediction:
Indianapolis 27
Washington 16
Tennessee (-3) Over Jacksonville
13 of 20
This game is one of the worst Monday Night Football games of my lifetime. If CBS was covering this, they would send their E-team, but it's a nationally televised game?
Awful decision.
Tennessee is frisky, Jacksonville has been lucky.
Final Score Prediction:
Tennessee 24
Jacksonville 13
Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings
14 of 20
Here are my fantasy football rankings for Week Six of the NFL season....
QBs
15 of 20
1. Philip Rivers, San Diego (Opponent: @ St. Louis)
2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis (Opponent: @ Washington)
3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay (Opponent: Miami)
4. Drew Brees, New Orleans (Opponent: @ Tampa Bay)
5. Tony Romo, Dallas (Opponent: @ Minnesota)
6. Kyle Orton, Denver (Opponent: NY Jets)
7. Matt Schaub, Houston (Opponent: Kansas City)
8. Jay Cutler, Chicago (Opponent: Seattle)
9. Eli Manning, New York Giants (Opponent: Detroit)
10. Tom Brady, New England (Opponent: Baltimore)
11. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (Opponent: Cleveland)
12. Joe Flacco, Baltimore (Opponent: @ New England)
13. Donovan McNabb, Washington (Opponent: Indianapolis)
14. Brett Favre, Minnesota (Opponent: Dallas)
15. Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (Opponent: @ Denver)
16. Matt Ryan, Atlanta (Opponent: @ Philadelphia)
17. Kevin Kolb, Philadelphia (Opponent: Atlanta)
18. Vince Young, Tennessee (Opponent: @ Jacksonville)
19. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay (Opponent: New Orleans)
20. Shaun Hill, Detroit (Opponent: @ NY Giants)
RBs
16 of 20
1. Chris Johnson, Tennessee (Opponent: @ Jacksonville)
2. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota (Opponent: Dallas)
3. Michael Turner, Atlanta (Opponent: @ Philadelphia)
4. Ray Rice, Baltimore (Opponent: @ New England)
5. Frank Gore, San Francisco (Opponent: @ Oakland)
6. Arian Foster, Houston (Opponent: Kansas City)
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville (Opponent: Houston)
8. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh (Opponent: Cleveland)
9. Ahmad Bradshaw, NY Giants (Opponent: Detroit)
10. Steven Jackson, St. Louis (Opponent: San Diego)
11. Michael Bush, Oakland (Opponent: @ San Francisco)
12. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City (Opponent: @ Houston)
13. Matt Forte, Chicago (Opponent: Seattle)
14. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia (Opponent: Atlanta)
15. LaDainian Tomlinson, NY Jets (Opponent: @ Denver)
16. Jahvid Best, Detroit (Opponent: @ NY Giants)
17. Ryan Torain, Washington (Opponent: @ Indianapolis)
18. Peyton Hillis, Cleveland (Opponent: @ Pittsburgh)
19. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis (Opponent: @ Washington)
20. Ronnie Brown, Miami (Opponent: @ Green Bay)
21. Ryan Matthews, San Diego (Opponent: @ St. Louis)
22. Felix Jones, Dallas (Opponent: Minnesota)
23. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (Opponent: @ Chicago)
24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, New England (Opponent: @ Baltimore)
25. Thomas Jones, Kansas City (Opponent: @ Houston)
WRs
17 of 20
1. Miles Austin, Dallas (Opponent: Minnesota)
2. Andre Johnson, Houston (Opponent: Kansas City)
3. Roddy White, Atlanta (Opponent: @ Philadelphia)
4. Hakeem Nicks, NY Giants (Opponent: Detroit)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis (Opponent: @ Washington)
6. Randy Moss, Minnesota (Opponent: @ Dallas)
7. Malcom Floyd, San Diego (Opponent: @ St. Louis)
8. Wes Welker, New England (Opponent: Baltimore)
9. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh (Opponent: Cleveland)
10. Brandon Marshall, Miami (Opponent: @ Green Bay)
11. DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia (Opponent: Atlanta)
12. Anquan Boldin, Baltimore (Opponent: @ New England)
13. Brandon Lloyd, Denver (Opponent: @ NY Jets)
14. Santana Moss, Washington (Opponent: Indianapolis)
15. Marques Colston, New Orleans (Opponent: @ Tampa Bay)
16. Percy Harvin, Minnesota (Opponent: @ Dallas)
17. Greg Jennings, Green Bay (Opponent: Miami)
18. Donald Driver, Green Bay (Opponent: Miami)
19. Steve Smith, NY Giants (Opponent: Detroit)
20. Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia (Opponent: Atlanta)
21. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh (Opponent: Cleveland)
22. Johnny Knox, Chicago (Opponent: Seattle)
23. Danny Amendola, St. Louis (Opponent: San Diego)
24. Braylon Edwards, NY Jets (Opponent: @ Denver)
25. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco (Opponent: Oakland)
TEs
18 of 20
1. Antonio Gates, San Diego (Opponent: @ St. Louis)
2. Dallas Clark, Indianapolis (Opponent: @ Washington)
3. Vernon Davis, San Francisco (Opponent: Oakland)
4. Brent Celek, Philadelphia (Opponent: Atlanta)
5. Zach Miller, Oakland (Opponent: @ San Francisco)
6. Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta (Opponent: @ Philadelphia)
7. Dustin Keller, NY Jets (Opponent: @ Denver)
8. Jason Witten, Dallas (Opponent: @ Minnesota)
9. Chris Cooley, Washington (Opponent: Indianapolis)
10. Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville (Opponent: Tennessee)
11. Kellen Winslow, Tampa Bay (Opponent: New Orleans)
12. Aaron Hernandez, New England (Opponent: Baltimore)
13. Heath Miller, Pittsburgh (Opponent: Cleveland)
14. Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit (Opponent: @ NY Giants)
15. Greg Olsen, Chicago (Opponent: Seattle)
Kickers
19 of 20
Close your eyes, throw a dart.
Defense/Special Teams
20 of 20
1. Pittsburgh (Opponent: Cleveland)
2. NY Giants (Opponent: Detroit)
3. Tennessee (Opponent: @ Jacksonville)
4. NY Jets (Opponent: @ Denver)
5. Chicago (Opponent: Seattle)
6. San Diego (Opponent: @ St. Louis)
7. Green Bay (Opponent: Miami)
8. Dallas (Opponent: Minnesota)
9. Baltimore (Opponent: @ New England)
10. Atlanta (Opponent: @ Philadelphia)
11. San Francisco (Opponent: Oakland)
12. New Orleans (Opponent: @ Tampa Bay)
13. Houston (Opponent: Kansas City)
14. Philadelphia (Opponent: Atlanta)
15. Oakland (Opponent: @ San Francisco)
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