NFL Picks Week 4: 10 Games That Could Come Down to the Final Minute
Last week, only two games were decided by less than a touchdown. Since one game was a poorly played Cardinals-Raiders matchup, it didn’t get much attention. On the flip side, nine games were won by two touchdowns or more.
That lack of exciting, nail-biting finishes to a Sunday in the NFL is unusual. This week, with nine games being divisional battles, that is likely to change. No team ever wants to drop a division game.
Here are predictions about each game, with the real barnburners coming at the end.
Carolina at New Orleans
1 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: No matter how bad the Panthers have looked in the recent weeks—especially their offense—this is still a divisional game.
Carolina Head Coach John Fox will get the defense ready and, on the turf at the Dome, Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will start to resemble the form that made them the best duo in the NFL in 2009.
Why New Orleans Will Win: Because they have Drew Brees. It’s that simple. There are so many weapons on that offense that the Saints will score enough points to win.
With five very reliable receiving options downfield (Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, and Jeremy Shockey) the Saints feature the best all-around passing game in the NFL.
Key Playmaker: Pierre Thomas. Just to keep the defense honest, the Saints are going to have to try and run the ball. If his slightly injured ankle can hold up, look for him to be a major factor when the Panthers slip into the Nickel and Dime packages.
Prediction: Saints 41, Panthers 14
Houston at Oakland
2 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: Houston did not look good at home last week against Dallas. Only a late game “garbage” touchdown kept the game from being a real blowout.
And although Matt Schaub’s was a Pro Bowler last year, and the offense was so great in their opening win against Indianapolis, he has leveled off a bit, throwing three picks in the last two games.
Why Houston Will Win: Every team is due an offensive hiccup early in the season, like the Texans endured last week. Led by Arian Foster and Andre Johnson, the Texans offense is one of the most explosive in the NFL.
The Raiders defense cannot match that type of speed and will struggle to limit the big play.
Key Playmaker: Shaun Cody. Once a standout at USC, Cody has resurfaced in Houston after a disappointing tenure in Detroit. But because the Texans book-end pass rushers (Mario Williams and Antonio Smith) are very good, Cody should be able to get penetration.
Prediction: Houston 24, Oakland 3
San Francisco at Atlanta
3 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: The “Letdown Game.” It’s an old cliché around the NFL but it might yet again prove true in this showdown of the old NFC West. After losing three straight to their division rival, the Saints, Atlanta pulled off a miracle win last week.
Falcons Head Coach Mike Smith has to be concerned about his team coming out flat following such an emotional, overtime win on the road last week at the Super Dome.
Why Atlanta Will Win: Just because the 49ers fired their offensive coordinator doesn’t mean that Alex Smith is going to turn into Joe Montana.
Points are going to be very hard to come by for the 49ers and, because the Falcons offense is blossoming into one of the league’s best, San Fran will be playing catchup very early.
Key Playmaker: Roddy White. The Falcons wide receiver is very quietly creeping into the class of the big name younger receiving stars like Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald.
Prediction: Falcons 31, 49ers 14.
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Seattle at St. Louis
4 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: Two weeks ago, no one would have expected this to be a closely contested affair. But the Rams made a big statement last week by defeating Washington pretty convincingly.
The Seahawks are far and away the favorite to win the NFC West, especially after their impressive win against San Diego. But the Rams and Sam Bradford are progressing a lot faster than most people expected.
Why Seattle Will Win: Seattle is just much more talented and experience across the board than the Rams. When it mattered most, that veteran defense came up with a huge stop at the end of the game against San Diego.
Key Playmaker: Justin Forsett. It’s time for the Seahawks young running back to step up. He has the talent and has much less wear-and-tear than Julius Jones.
Prediction: Seattle 24, St. Louis 10
New York Jets at Buffalo
5 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: The Bills have turned in two great games (albeit both losses) during this young season.
They hung with Miami in the opener despite no production from the quarterback position and went toe-to-toe with the Patriots last week in a shootout.
The Jets supposedly great defense yielded far too many points and yards last week against Miami. Buffalo Head Coach Chan Gailey will use that to his advantage, tailoring a gameplan to exploit the Jets ailing secondary.
Why New York Will Win: Darrelle Revis will be out once again and the Bills will take advantage of that. But they won’t be able to churn out enough in the running game to stay with the Jets.
Last week, Mark Sanchez took another step towards becoming a reliable NFL passer and the Jets will continue to score through the air against a shoddy Bills defense.
Key Playmaker: Dustin Keller. The Jets tight end has become Sanchez’s favorite target and caught two touchdowns in last week’s Monday night win.
With Braylon Edwards drawing more and more attention to the outside, Keller will find openings underneath and over the middle.
Prediction: New York Jets 28, Buffalo 17
Arizona at San Diego
6 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: The Cardinals offense was borderline awful last week, yet they still got the win and Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski deserves some of the credit for that. But the Cardinals found a way to win the ball game.
In the second half, Arizona’s defense was fantastic, forcing punts and limiting the Raiders to just a field goal. Oakland posted impressive fantasy football stats (250-yard passer, 100-yard rusher, 100-yard receiver) but the Cardinals veteran defense didn’t yield points.
Why San Diego Will Win: Philip Rivers has carried the Chargers thus far—imagine how bad they would be without him—and he’s still warming up. Now if their kick coverage wasn’t so bad, San Diego would be 2-1.
Key Playmaker: Darren Sproles. On top of carrying the ball, and catching passes out of the backfield, the Chargers will need Sproles to provide great field position on kick returns.
Last week, Arizona’s LaRod Stephens-Howling returned the game’s opening kickoff for a touchdown; the Chargers surrendered two kick returns against Seattle.
There’s no quick fix to those types of kick coverage woes, unless Sproles can return a kick of his own.
Prediction: Chargers 38, Cardinals 28
Indianapolis at Jacksonville
7 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: After a pretty impressive win in their opener against Denver, the Jaguars have laid eggs in their last two contests, 20-point-plus losses to Philadelphia and San Diego.
They’ll face another exceptional passing offense this week, when Peyton Manning’s Colts come to North Florida.
The good news, however, is that the Colts rush defense is one of the worst in the NFL, ranked 29th and yielding 141 yards per game. Although Maurice Jones Drew hasn’t broken the 100-yard barrier yet this week, he should find room to run, which will keep drives alive and keep Peyton on the sidelines.
Why Indianapolis Will Win: While the Colts have the fourth-worst rushing defense in the NFL, the Jaguars own the fourth-worst passing defense in the NFL. Manning has been near-flawless this year (nine touchdowns, no interceptions), a fact made even more stunning considering how bad the Colts running game has been.
Manning, Reggie Wayne and newcomer Austin Collie will torch the Jaguars secondary.
Key Playmaker: Gary Brackett. The Colts middle linebacker is fighting a bad back but is expected to play this week. His presence alone will make things difficult on the Jaguars running game.
And if Jacksonville has to rely too much on quarterback David Garrard, the game will be over by halftime.
Prediction: Indianapolis 30, Jacksonville 13.
Chicago at New York Giants
8 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: For all the Giants problems, they still have an exceptional yet underrated passing game.
Eli Manning is still one of the most accurate passers in the NFL and there is no shortage of weapons with Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham, Steve Smith, and tight end Kevin Boss.
Whether they fall behind early or the running game just isn’t there, the Giants are going to throw the ball and score points.
Why New York Will Win: At 3-0, the Bears are the only undefeated team left in the NFC. Many in the media still think they are “pretenders” not “contenders” and Chicago won’t be able to silence their critics this week.
Jay Cutler’s offense has wins over Dallas and Green Bay, two teams that each feature All-Pro pass rushing individuals: Demarcus Ware and Clay Matthews.
But he has yet to face a great defensive line across the board. The Giants front four is exceptional and will give the Bears all kinds of protection problems.
Key Playmaker: Julius Peppers. Aside from the big blocked field goal on Monday night, Peppers hasn’t produced much for the Bears, just three tackles and one sack.
He needs to either pressure Manning himself or at least occupy two blockers to open up the pass rush lanes for his teammates.
Prediction: New York Giants 31, Chicago 28
Cincinnati at Cleveland
9 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: Last week, Cleveland turned in one of the more stunning efforts against Baltimore. And not simply because the game was close.
Running back Peyton Hillis ran for 144 yards on 22 carries against the Ravens defense.
The Browns feature a very underrated offensive line, anchored by Joe Thomas. The Browns will maintain some long drives; it’s Seneca Wallace’s job to convert on third down when he’s asked to.
Why Cleveland Will Win: The Bengals passing game has been in steady decline for a while. Adding Terrell Owens doesn’t seem to have solved the problem. Instead of relying on Cedric Benson, the Bengals have a tendency to try and work out the kinks by throwing.
If Carson Palmer throws more than 40 passes, the Browns will be in the driver’s seat.
Key Playmaker: Josh Cribbs. The Browns speedster will contribute some in the passing game but more so on special teams. One long punt return or kick return might break the game open.
Prediction: Cleveland 20, Cincinnati 17
Denver at Tennessee
10 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: These two teams are very evenly matched. Only Denver’s self-induced red zone issues last week kept the Broncos from a nice victory over the Colts.
Still, Kyle Orton found a new favorite target in Brandon Lloyd. Against the Titans mediocre cornerbacks, Lloyd will again catch a handful of passes.
Why Tennessee Will Win: Tennessee’s win over the Giants last week was one of the most impressive around the league. With a quarterback like Vince Young, the passing yardage stats (just 118 against the Giants) are almost meaningless.
Young was accurate enough, completing 10 of 16 passes, to open up holes for Chris Johnson. That’s what matters.
Key Playmaker: Michael Griffin. The Titans safety is multitalented and his skills will be needed in both defending the pass and making tackles in the run game. He isn’t Troy Polamalu or Ed Reed but he remains a vital cog in the Tennessee unit.
Prediction: Tennessee 17, Denver 14
Washington at Philadelphia
11 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: Washington has fallen fast and hard after its great opening night win over the Cowboys. Those subsequent losses to Houston and St. Louis aren’t enough to convince Dan Snyder to fire Mike Shanahan (we hope).
If Redskin fans look on the bright side, they’ll notice that Donovan McNabb hasn’t played all that bad in his comparatively quick transition to a vastly different offensive scheme.
This week he’s playing a defense he knows as well as anyone in the NFL and after a month of game-week preparations, things should start to click for Washington’s offense.
Why Washington Will Win: As much as the Fox coverage will imply, the McNabb-Vick showdown is not going to decide this one. Redskins defensive coordinator and former New Orleans Saints Head Coach Jim Haslett saw a lot of Michael Vick from 2001-2005.
And some of Vick’s worse individual games came against Haslett’s Saints. And to slow down a power back like LeSean McCoy, the Redskins have the personnel upfront.
Key Playmaker: Brian Orakpo. Washington’s young outside linebacker has already made some big plays this season. Occasionally it will be up to him to haul in a scrambling Michael Vick before he turns upfield. Orakpo has just enough speed to do that.
Prediction: Washington 20, Philadelphia 17
New England at Miami
12 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: Miami’s offense really opened up last week against the Jets. Chad Henne was outstanding and with Davone Bess a nice complement to Brandon Marshall, the Dolphins will be able to score enough points to hang with the prolific Patriots scoring attack.
Why New England Will Win: The Patriots defense is not what it used to be and each week, Tom Brady will be called upon to produce touchdowns to make up for that average unit.
No matter how much the running game will struggle with the loss of Kevin Faulk and the unfortunately-timed trade of Laurence Maroney, the Pats are always capable of putting up 30-plus points.
Key Playmaker: Ronnie Brown. Because of his role in the Wildcat, no running back—not Chris Johnson or Adrian Peterson—is more important to his team than Brown. And sooner or later, Brown will have to throw out of the Wildcat formation.
This week might be produce that moment and it will be up to him to connect.
Prediction: New England 41, Miami 38.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
13 of 13
Why It Will Be Close: This Sunday, Charlie Batch won’t be as fortunate as he was last weekend: It’s the Baltimore Ravens defense, not the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’, coming to Heinz Field.
Batch won’t have the time to throw the ball downfield like he did last week, when he twice hit Mike Wallace on deep touchdown passes.
Baltimore won’t yield those types of big plays and the game will be the tightest of the weekend.
Why Pittsburgh Will Win: The Ravens offense collectively does not have enough patience to try and wait out the Steelers defense. Especially if Ray Rice’s injured knee flares up.
Should Joe Flacco get greedy and looks downfield for Anquan Boldin one too many times, that works to the Steelers advantage.
Either a pick from Troy Polamalu or a sack-fumble by James Harrison is the risk the Ravens face if they cannot run the ball.
Key Playmaker: Heath Miller. The Steelers tight end has just eight catches thus far; clearly Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension is partly the reason. But because Batch will need to make quick decisions and often be forced to dump the ball off after taking a three-step drop, Miller will be the best target.
Any up-the-middle blitzes by Baltimore could leave Miller open for a big catch and run.
Prediction: Steelers 16, Ravens 13.
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