Pick of the Litter: Uncovering NFL Underdogs That Can Win in Week Four

Every week in the NFL there is an upset.

In Week 1 the Seattle Seahawks stunned the football world by trouncing the San Francisco 49ers. In Week 2 it was the Chicago Bears pulling off the monumental upset and dropping the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas stadium. Just last week St. Louis and quarterback Sam Bradford, as three-point underdogs, rammed the Redskins for their first win of the season.

So what team will shock football fans this week?

Here are five underdogs that have a chance to take a bite out of favorites this week and five tips on identifying underdogs during the NFL season.

Change at the Top

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FOXBORO, MA - SEPTEMBER 26: Ryan Fitzpatrick #14 of the Buffalo Bills looks to pass in the second half against the New England Patriots during on September 26, 2010 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts. The Patriots defeated the Bills 38-30. (P

Buffalo +5

BetPhoenix has the Bills listed as 5.5-point underdogs against the New York Jets. This fits into more than one category (See Cleveland), but the focus is the change at the top. When a change is made at quarterback, teams can respond in different ways. The Bills made a change and started Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the players embraced the change.

The Bills played much better and put up the best offensive showing so far this year. Fitzpatrick performed so well that the Bills waived opening-day starter Trent Edwards.

The Jets have shown a weakness in the secondary. Teams are attacking the safety position with different looks and it is paying off.

The underdog is an amazing 20-8 ATS in their last 28 meetings, and the Bills have a decent shot at pulling off the upset this weekend at home.

Playing with Extra Motivation

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LANDOVER, MD - SEPTEMBER 19: Donovan McNabb #5 of the Washington Redskins looks for a receiver during the game against the Houston Texans at FedExField on September 19, 2010 in Landover, Maryland. The Texans defeated the Redskins in overtime 30-27. (Phot

Redskins +6.5

The Redskins are listed by BetPhoenix as 6.5-point underdogs this week in their game against the Eagles. Donovan McNabb will play his first game in Philadelphia since being traded, and that fits another angle I look for when searching for a live dog.

Certain teams play better when they have extra incentive. McNabb may downplay it all week, but he really wants to win this game. He was insulted when the Eagles gave up on him, and he wants to prove that he has something left in the tank.

Want more proof the Redskins were looking forward to this game? They got caught looking ahead on their trip to St. Louis and failed miserably. The Redskins will want to win this game for McNabb and that will put the Eagles on upset alert this weekend.

Skins are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.

Quarterback Michael Vick has played very well for the Eagles but not against the Lions and the Jaguars. This will be a true test for Vick and the Eagles, and they will fall flat as McNabb gets his revenge!

The Letdown Game

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SEATTLE - SEPTEMBER 12: Head coach Mike Singletary of the San Francisco 49ers looks on during warm ups prior to the NFL season opener against the Seattle Seahawks at Qwest Field on September 12, 2010 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty

San Francisco 49ers +6.5

Another angle to keep an eye out for is the letdown game. This is not always easy to identify, but the principle is to play against a team that is coming off a very big win. Obviously the Atlanta Falcons' overtime win against their division rival, and defending super bowl champion, New Orleans Saints would qualify as a big win. BetPhoenix has listed the Falcons as 6.5-point favorites for this game, and that is too many to give in this spot.

It helps when the team they are playing is desperate for a win. The 49ers fired their offensive coordinator this week, and if this team doesn’t win this week, the season could be lost.

The 49ers are 9-3-2 ATS against a team with a winning record, and they are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.

The 49ers are a live dog in this game and have a chance of pulling off the upset.

Home Divisional Underdogs

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CLEVELAND - SEPTEMBER 19: Running back Peyton Hillis #40 of the Cleveland Browns celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns Stadium on September 19, 2010 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Matt Sullivan/Getty Imag

Cleveland Browns +3

Home divisional underdogs are always worth a second look. This week the Cleveland Browns host the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are listed at BetPhoenix as 3-point favorites, and that means the Browns fit the criteria.

The theory is that home teams play harder in divisional play since all sare crucial to the standings and, of course, the playoffs. This is a good thing to look for, but there are more things needed to back this home pup.

Cleveland has to be excited about the emergence of running back Peyton Hillis. He rushed 22 times for 144 yards against the best defense in the NFL. This week he will face the 13th-ranked pass defense in the Bengals and will put up some big numbers once again.

Another reason to back a home divisional dog is if they play well against the spread at home or as an underdog. The Browns qualify in both categories. Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog

The Bengals have been bankroll-burners for backers that bet on them, as they are 3-8 (against the spread) ATS in their last 11 games overall. The numbers get even worse when they are favorites—they are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 games as a favorite. Quarterback Carson Palmer has not looked good up to this point, and that gives the Browns a chance to pull off the upset.

Going Against Road Chalk

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GLENDALE, AZ - SEPTEMBER 26: Runningback Darren McFadden #20 of the Oakland Raiders rushes the football past Paris Lenon #51 of the Arizona Cardinals during the first quarter of the NFL game at the University of Phoenix Stadium on September 26, 2010 in G

Raiders +3.5

The NFL is a very tough place to play, and this is how the term “Any given Sunday” originated. The theory is that on any Sunday any team can win. This weekend that team can be the Oakland Raiders. BetPhoenix has the Texans listed as 3-point favorites when they travel to the Black Hole this weekend to play the Raiders.

When looking for teams to bet against, try to focus on playing against teams on the road laying points. Teams at home play harder—especially when they have a fan base that strongly supports them. 

There are some stats in this game that may surprise some people. For example, when it comes to total defense, the Raiders are tied for second overall, and the Texans are 31st.

The Raiders offense has performed admirably under quarterback Bruce Gradkowski, and Sebastian Janikowski will not miss many field goals like he did last week. Darren McFadden is living up to his draft hype and is running the ball with a purpose. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings; don’t be surprised when the Raiders win this game outright.

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Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews, and predictions. Feel Free to contact Matt at [e-mail]