Yankees-Rays: Five Reasons Tampa Bay Will Outlast New York for AL East Crown
The Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees play a four-game series this week in the Bronx. This series is pivotal in deciding which team will be the AL East champion and which team will fight the Boston Red Sox for the wild card. Winning the division is important for home field advantage since it is believed that they will meet in the ALCS.
Coming into the series the Yankees have a half-game lead on the Rays. Tampa Bay should be able to hold off the Yankees and win the division.
There are five factors that the Tampa Bay Rays have in their favor over the Yankees in the upcoming series and remainder of the season.
5. Pitching
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When you look at the statistics for the pitching staffs for the two teams things look about even.
The New York Yankees starting pitchers are 70-43 with a 4.20 ERA including C.C. Sabathia pitching lights out at home. The Yankees have also received some good outings from its bullpen that is coming into this week with a record of 20-16.
The Tampa Bay Rays starting pitchers are 69-43 with a 3.92 ERA including David Price and his bid for the AL Cy Young award. Much like the Yankees the Rays relievers currently have a record of 20-16 in games they received the decision.
The key for the Yankees pitching staff is to keep opposing teams from scoring early. The Yankees are 52-18 when they score first. If their recent pitching woes continue they will not win the division.
4. Momentum
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The Rays have been playing better than the Yankees recently. New York is coming off a nine game road trip that they finished 3-6. They got swept by the Texas Rangers, dropped two of three to the Rays, and won two of three versus the Baltimore Orioles. The Rays are 35-25 since the All-Star break.
In the same time period the Rays are 5-4 in their last nine games. They won two of three against the Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays before dropping two of three to the Angels. The Yankees are 34-27 since the All-Star break
Tampa Bay has another slight edge in momentum which may be just enough for them to win the division even if it is only by the necessary one game.
3. Head-to-Head Record
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Coming into this week the Rays own an 8-6 record against the Yankees this season. At Yankee Stadium, the Rays are 3-2 in 2010.
The probable starters for the Yankees this week are Ivan Nova, Phil Hughes, A.J. Burnett, and C.C. Sabathia. They are a combined 2-5 versus the Rays this season. The two wins by Sabathia and Burnett came on April 10th and 11th respectively.
The probable starters for the Rays this week are Matt Garza, James Shields, Wade Davis, and David Price. They are a combined 5-2 versus the Yankees this season including David Price winning the head-to-head game last week against Sabathia.
The Rays have the edge coming into this week's critical series. They could easily win two of the first three games leaving the pivotal game on Thursday between Price and Sabathia to determine the division lead. When it is all said and done I expect the Rays to win three of four against the Yankees this week taking a 2.5 game lead on the division. If the Rays take the lead don't expect them to lose it again.
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2. Desire
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It is very possible that the Rays want the division championship more than the Yankees do. The sentiment in the Rays clubhouse is that a lot of faces on the team will be different next season. It is almost expected that Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena among other players will not be able to be retained due to salary.
That makes this season so important to all the players on the Rays. This is potentially their last chance to do something special. Joe Maddon and his team came so close in 2008 and would love to finish what they started.
The Yankees may have more talent than the Rays but there is an old saying that says, "hard work beats talent when talent doesn't work hard." The Rays will try to prove once again that 9=8.
1. Remaining Schedule
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The Yankees and Rays have two different paths to the postseason after this week's series.
Tampa Bay will not face a single team above .500 after New York. They close the season out with three games against Seattle (57-92), three games against Baltimore (59-90), and four games at Kansas City (61-87). They are 17-8 against the Mariners, Orioles, and Royals combined. With six of their final ten games at home the odds are the Rays will end the regular season with a winning streak.
New York doesn't have as favorable a schedule. Every team the Yankees face for the rest of the season is above .500. Also, they close the season against all AL East teams. After the Tampa Bay series they have three games against Boston (83-66), three games at Toronto (75-74), and they close the season with three games at Boston. The Yankees are 14-13 this season against Boston and Toronto combined.
With Boston clinging to their playoff aspirations, the rivalry could potentially decide which team is watching the playoffs from home this season. While they fight it out for six games, the Rays will be celebrating their second AL East championship in franchise history.
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