Come To Think of It...Part I of III: MLB's MVP Award Bias - Who are the MVPs?
There is usually one candidate in each league who is having such a great season that it is only a question of whether or not his team wins. You see, that's the bias most voters have—the MVP must come from a team that makes the playoffs, unless someone has a monster season that no one comes close to.
In the American League, that player might be Josh Hamilton. Yet, as great as he has been, with a terrific, feel-good story to boot, the Rangers are unlikely to even be in the conversation to make the playoffs by year's end. Therefore, we may be looking elsewhere for the MVP in the AL.
Yes, Hamilton is currently second in the league in home runs with 28. His 111 RBI are 20 more than the nearest competitor. And though RBI are basically meaningless, voters almost always use that stat to determine MVP winners. But the Rangers are out of the playoff hunt.
If the White Sox win the Central, and I think they will, then two candidates must be seriously considered. Carlos Quentin, who was a terrific acquisition by GM Kenny Williams that seems to have flown under the radar, leads the league in homers with 32.
Additionally, he's third in the nebulous RBI category with 90, and has a higher OBP than Hamilton, the most important offensive statistic in baseball.
Jermaine Dye is also having a solid season for a winning team, sporting a line of: 300/.359/.565.
In fact, Hamilton may not even be the best candidate on his own team. Second baseman Ian Kinsler is hitting .319 with 26 stolen bases and a .378 OBP. And Milton Bradley leads the league in OBP with a gaudy .446 clip, to go along with the second-best slugging percentage (.590) and the highest OPS (1.036).
But we all know that winning teams, especially those on the East Coast, draw more attention. The Yankees may not be headed to a playoff appearance, but if they make it, A-Rod will once again be in the discussion, as he should be. He joins Bradley as the only hitters with an OPS over 1.000, and is one of only four players with an OBP over .400.
If Boston wins, J.D. Drew should get some love, with his .412 OBP and .536 slugging percentage. If Minnesota wins, put Mauer and Morneau into the discussion as well.
Neither the Angels nor Tampa Bay have any serious candidates for MVP.
In the National League, the race for MVP is even more wide open. The Cubs don't seem to have any one player that stands out as a worthy candidate. If the Cardinals win, they have two candidates in Albert Pujols, who is second in all of baseball with a .462 OBP, and Ryan Ludwick, who has come from nowhere to post a line of .307/.385/.614.
Staying in the Central division, the Brewers' Prince Fielder is a fringe candidate, at best. His teammate, Ryan Braun, is a solid candidate if Milwaukee makes the playoffs, with his power numbers and .300 BA.
In the east, Hanley Ramirez has a line of .294/.383/.529, while playing the second most critical position on the diamond, albeit not that well. Chipper Jones, of course, is having a monster season, but the Braves are likely out of contention.
Pat Burrell is sitting pretty with 27 homers and an impressive .393 OBP. But voters hung up on batting average (a statistic trumped by OBP every time) will note his .268 BA as negative feedback. David Wright should get some consideration, but it remains to be seen if his Mets can win.
If the Phils win, Chase Utley probably leads all candidates with 28 home runs, though the rest of his offensive numbers aren't all that impressive. Ryan Howard has terrific power numbers, but his BA and OBP are too low.
Out west, Adrian Gonzalez would be a solid candidate if his Padres had any chance to win. Similarly, Matt Holiday would be viable. Since both teams will be on the outside looking in, and both the Dodgers and D-Backs have nobody particularly impressive, though Russell Martin is the best catcher in baseball, the MVP won't come from this division.
Overall, it is open to debate. And isn't debate one of the best things about baseball? Come to think of it, what do you think: Who is your MVP and why?
