Back-Up To Star: Will Darren Collison Be Better Than Chris Paul?

An injury to superstar point guard Chris Paul opened the door to rookie Darren Collison last season to make a strong impact on his team.  Nobody expected Collison to produce at the level he did during Chris Paul’s 37-game absence.

At first, people considered Collison’s production a fallout from defenses not paying much attention to the young guard and scouting reports not focusing on his talent.  But Collison kept producing at a surprisingly consistent rate.

By the time Chris Paul came back from injury there were rumors about how expendable he was within the team and weather New Orleans would chose Collison over him.  This decision was made clear last week when the New Orleans Hornets traded Collison in a 4-team-5-player deal.

Since the deal became official, several questions have surfaced.  The biggest question is Collison’s potential.  Collison’s level of play as a starter was of all-star caliber in his rookie year.  Statistically, it could be argued that his level of play was better than that of Paul’s rookie and sophomore campaigns.  Really.

Chris Paul was a stud during his first two seasons and steadily progressed with every game.  The table below shows Chris Paul’s statistics for his first two seasons and a per 48-minute adjustment to establish a base for comparison.

Chris Paul
MIN	FG%	3PT%	FT%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
36.00	0.43	0.28	0.85	5.10	7.80	2.20	0.10	2.35	2.79	16.10
per48	0.43	0.28	0.85	6.80	10.40	2.93	0.13	3.13	3.72	21.47
36.80	0.44	0.35	0.82	4.40	8.90	1.80	0.00	2.52	2.41	17.30
per48	0.44	0.35	0.82	5.87	11.87	2.40	0.00	3.36	3.21	23.07

Darren Collison, in 37 starts, produced similar numbers, if not better than that of Paul’s rookie and sophomore campaign.  See it for yourself.

Darren Collison
MIN	FG%	3PT%	FT%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
40:17	48.50	42.90	85.20	3.50	9.10	1.40	0.10	4.10	1.80	18.80
per48	48.50	42.90	85.20	4.67	12.13	1.87	0.13	5.47	2.40	25.07

Yes, Darren Collison scored more, assisted more, delivered higher shooting percentages, and made his share of three pointers.  While clearly better number than Paul’s rookie and sophomore campaigns in these areas, Chris Paul was superior in defense as well as not turning the ball over.

Darren Collison is not better than Chris Paul as of now.  But in a few years, he might just be.  Considering his already unbelievable level of play, and adding experience on both the defensive and offensive ends of the court, Darren Collison has the chance to become one of the top point guards in the league.

Did the Hornets trade a future Chris Paul to Indiana?  No, they traded a future (and present) Darren Collison.  And that might someday be better for Indiana than Chris Paul himself.