Fantasy Football Preview: Detroit Lions 2010

As we make our way through all 32 NFL teams we have come to the resurgent Detroit Lions.  Fantasy Football Spin takes all the NFL news and tells you what it means in fantasy football terms.  You can check us out at www.ffspin.com and on Twitter at @FFSpin...    

In his NFL power rankings Sports Illistrated writer Peter King stated that if the Lions were in the NFC West they would have a real shot at winning the division.  The image of the lowly Lions winning a division may be difficult to imagine and Peter King may have over stated things but the fact remains that this is a team on the rise.  The Lions are no longer the worst-run club in the NFL – by a long shot.  That title may belong to the Bills or perhaps the Raiders.  The Lions are on the comeback and have amassed a team of talented skill position players that makes the crew from Detroit no longer a fantasy football wasteland.  There are reasons for the loyal and long suffering Detroit Lions fans to have hope and for the fantasy owner to pay attention to new, exciting Lions.  As a side note, they deserve it.  The fans and people of Detroit deserve it.  They have endured enough both via their football team and in real life.  If you can’t pull for Detroit as a town – you have no heart. 

The 2010 draft has brought a further infusion of talent.  In an attempt to repair a unit that allowed a league worst 31 points per game in 2009, the Lions wisely used the #2 pick to select DT Ndamukong Suh.  They then traded back into the first round and nabbed dynamic playmaking RB Javhid Best who is likely to be the starter in week 1.  In 2009, the Lions offense averaged an anemic 16 points per game with a rushing attack that ranked 24th in the NFL and a passing game that finished ranked 21^st  averaging just under 200 yards/game.  Rookie QB Matt Stafford showed flashes of his potential and remains one of my favorites to surprise in 2010.  In his second year as a pro he should make for a solid QB2 with high enough upside to where he may be your starter on occasion and it would not be a shock if he finished as a top 12 fantasy football quarterback.  Stafford has a couple new weapons in WR Nate Burleson and TE Tony Scheffler who, added to existing weapons like athletic freak Calvin Johnson, form a formidable group of  passing targets.  The upgrades to the passing game will also be welcomed additions for WR Calvin Johnson.  Megatron, as he has been dubbed, is primed to post his best season to date and is a near consensus top 5 WR.

FANTASY FOOTBALL SPIN:

Stud: WR Calvin Johnson (ADP 15 – WR #5) - Megatron has been hampered by nagging injuries and limited talent around him yet he has still produced elite fantasy numbers.  In 2008, he topped 1,300 yards and hit paydirt 12 times.  Last season was a disappointment as his numbers slipped to just under 1,000 yards and a meager 5 TDs as rookie QB Matt Stafford endured some growing pains.   With the addition of Nate Burleson, two passing catching tight ends in Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler in conjunction with an upgraded backfield Javhid Best/Kevin Smith, the stars are aligned for a breakout season.  I’m expecting a stat line similar to 2008 and wouldn’t be surprised he he reaches career bests in yardage and TDs in his 4th NFL season.

Overvalued: RB Javhid Best (ADP 52 – RB #24) - I’m likely to take some criticism for this one but I believe the fantasy world could get stung by the rookie buzz surrounding him.  This is more a criticism of his O-line than a knock on his talent.  Best is a dynamic rusher, but he is not without cause for concern.  His size may prevent him from being a true feature back, he tips the scales at less than 200 Lbs, and his injury history, replete with concussions, could pose a problem.  I’m also expecting this backfield to be more of time share provided that Kevin Smith recovers well enough from ACL surgery to contribute.  In his rookie season in 2008, Smith had 976 rushing yards, 8 TDs and has averaged 40 catches per season in his first two NFL seasons.  Best is electrifying in the open field and can take it to the house from anywhere on the field but someone will reach for him too high (you’d be better off taking him as an RB3 – an unlikely scenario considering all the hype).  Small backs are no longer necessarily doomed to time share or role player situations.  Little guys (by NFL standards) like Brian Westbrook and Chris Johnson have proven that one does not have to have prototypical size to hold up to NFL pounding and excel.  Best has a chance to be something special and we are by no means saying he is going to be a bust.  We are, however, saying that he does not represent very good value where he is currently be taken in fantasy drafts.

Undervalued: QB Matthew Stafford (ADP 127 – QB #17) - His freshman NFL campaign was average at best as Stafford battled a shoulder injury and finished with only two wins to go with a meager 13 touchdowns and a whopping 20 interceptions.  There is an adjusted period for any QB attempting to make the transition from the college game to the pros.   The Lions offensive line didn’t do him any favors and Stafford faced almost constant pressure and missed the final four games of the season due to the aforementioned shoulder injury.  Stafford will enter 2010 with a full year under his belt and upgrades at all of the offensive skill positions.   If his week 11 performance against Cleveland is any indication, this young man could be a good one. The Browns watched the Lions offense led by Stafford amass over 400 passing yards and tally 5 TDs.  Stafford pulled the game out with last second heroics after separating his shoulder showing the moxie that will make him a fixture under center in Detroit for the foreseeable future.   His time as a #1 fanasy football QB is coming, but it may be one season away.  He will endure more growing pains this year and contrary to Peter King’s enthusiastic endorsement, the Lions have serious holes that will lead ot some rough Sundays in 2010..