NFL Fantasy Football: Nine Players I Hope You Draft – Because I'm NOT!

Matt Ryan  – QB (Atlanta Falcons)
You don’t hear about Matt Ryan getting into fights at strip clubs or
pulling a “Worthlisberger” at college bars.  You probably never will.
I even buy Gillette razors because of the guy!  However, because he’s
viewed as a nice guy, people elevate his value because they want him
to be better than his stats show.  They want a guy like Ryan to be a
top tier QB because he’s an “All American” kind of guy.  His stats
simply don’t back that up.  Last season he passed for 2916 yards, 22
TD, 14 INTs.  That was worth 199.28 points in my league.  Garrard,
Orton and J. Campbell all finished ahead of Ryan.  He only averaged 2
points more a game than Matt Cassell.  I know that Michael Turner not
being healthy and missing five games didn’t help his value, but even with
a healthy Turner, I’m not sold on Ryan.  I think the Falcons are
really thin in the WR department, which doesn’t help Ryan’s value.
Behind Roddy White, you have Harry Douglas, Michael Jenkins and list
of players most people have never even heard of (not that Harry
Douglas is a household name anyway). My point is, if you draft Ryan,
you might end up with razor burn!

Braylon Edwards  – WR (NY Jets)
I’m not drafting “Banana Hands” in any draft this season.  I’ve seen
him go in the 5th – 6th rounds in some mock drafts.  He only had 45
catches, 680 yards and 4 TD’s last season.  I know he’s talented, that
he had 16 TD’s in 2007 and last year was tough transitioning to a new
team.  I don’t care!  I’m still not touching him.  He’s always had an
issue with dropping to many passes.  I don’t want to be the guy
sitting on the couch needing two points to win, with Braylon in the
lineup, just to see him drop a 30 yard pass that would’ve given me the
win.  Since his 16 TD season, he’s had just 7 TD’s in the last two
seasons.  The acquisition of Holmes was not a vote of confidence for
Braylon.  Holmes and Braylon have a very similar skill set.  The Jets
have several solid targets in Holmes, Cotchery and Keller, which could
further hurt his value.  I’d rather pass on the “what if’s” that he’ll
give you and take someone else.

Calvin Johnson  – WR (Detroit Lions)
I’ve seen Megatron drafted in the late 1st round, early 2nd of some
mock drafts.  I’ve seen him taken as the #2 WR off the board.  That’s
crazy.  There’s no doubt that Johnson is a physical freak and super
talented.  But stats are stats, and he’s never posted better than 78
catches in a season.  Not even in the 2008 season, when the Lions were
0-16, throwing it around, playing from behind.  Don’t get me wrong, I
think Johnson is in line for a fine season, but I’m not taking him in
the 2nd.  I’ve got guys like Roddy White and Brandon Marshall ahead of
him.  He’s also an injury concern.  Add to that, the Lions might
actually be decent this season.  They might not be throwing it the
entire 2nd half of their games, which could hurt his value.

Hakeem Nicks  – WR (NY Giants)
Nicks produced the 3rd best WR stats on his team last season, yet he’s
being drafted in the 4th – 6th rounds of most drafts.  I’m not buying
it.  Nicks had 47-790-6 last year, which is a great rookie season. But
Steve Smith was clearly the #1 and was among the league leaders in
pass targets (and I don’t think that will change).  To put it into
even more perspective, Nicks caught exactly five more passes than TE
Kevin Boss.  Much overlooked in this equation is Mario Manningham.
This guy was no “Luigi” last season.  He posted 57-822-5.  In my PPR
league, Manningham outscored Nicks. Nicks is going in the 4th – 6th
rounds, but you can get Manningham in the 12th or later?  That just
doesn’t make any sense.  I’ll hold off on Nicks, and hope that Mario
falls to me later in the draft.

Brandon Jacobs  – RB (NY Giants)
I wouldn’t draft Brandon Jacobs for your team!  I’m obviously pretty
low on Jacobs going into this season.  I’m guessing the Giants are
going to be a pass first team this season.  They have too many WR
weapons not too.  Jacobs is also firmly entrenched in a time share
with Ahmad Bradshaw.  Jacobs upside is limited and I’d rather roll the
dice with Reggie Bush or McFadden this season.  I think their upside
is much better.

Rashard Mendenhall  – RB (Pittsburgh Steelers)
He was solid last year, but his best games came against teams with bad
defenses.  The only games he went over 100 yards were against the
Chargers, Broncos and Raiders.  He also scored three of this seven total TD’s
in those games, which leaves four TD’s spread out over the remaining 13
games.  That’s not good.  Especially for a guy taken in the late 1st,
early 2nd rounds of drafts.  He also had Roethisberger throwing it
around, keeping defenses honest.  That won’t happen in the beginning
of this season.  They also lost Santonio Holmes, so there are plenty
of holes to fill in Pittsburgh.  He’ll be the man this year, but will
defenses completely stack the box and force them to throw?  Only time
will tell, but it’s enough to scare me off.

Ronnie Brown  – RB (Miami Dolphins)
The guy missed seven games last season due to a Lisfranc foot injury.
Also, his best rushing total in five seasons is just 1008 yards.  Amazing
isn’t it, you thought it would be higher didn’t you – IT’S NOT!  More
amazing is that he has only posted double-digit TD’s in one season and
that was only 10.  I’ve seen his ADP around 40-45, ahead of guys like
Forte and Addai.  I want to play in your league if you take Brown over
either of those guys.  Brown’s ADP is in the 40’s, while Ricky
Williams is in the late 60’s – doesn’t make any sense to me.  Avoid
Brown and take Ricky two rounds later, you’ll thank me by week three.

Shonn Greene  – RB (NY Jets)
I’ve seen Greene go in the 1st round in about 75% of the mock drafts
I’ve done.  His ADP is high teens.  All this hype for a guy who rushed
for 540 yards and two TD’s (and both TD’s were in the same game against
the Raiders).  He also had 0 receptions in the regular season, so he’s
even less valuable in PPR leagues.  He’s a one dimensional player that
is most likely to be replaced on 3rd downs by Tomlinson or McKnight.
It’s true that he had a nice playoff run, but that’s just not enough
for me to buy into the hype.  He’s going ahead of guys like Cedric
Benson and Knowshon Moreno.  I even like LeSean McCoy better in PPR
leagues.  I’m not drafting Greene in the 1st or 2nd.  No thanks, I’ll
pass on Shonn and get my “greens” somewhere else!

Visanthe Shiancoe  – TE (Minnesota Vikings)
Most people will look at his 11 TD’s and move him up their draft
board.  If you take a closer look, he had two games where he had one
catch, one TD.  He also had just 3 games with five or more receptions.  He
only had three games with 50 yards or more receiving.  His value is tied
too heavily with his TD production.  A lot is going to have to go
right for him to get 11 TD’s again this season.  I think he hit his
ceiling last season and there is nowhere to go but down from there.
I’d rather take guys like Zach Miller, John Carlson, Heath Miller and
Greg Olsen, later in the draft.

Article written by:  Rick Coeburn
Please e-mail questions or comments to:  [e-mail]
Visit the website at www.fantasyfootballsoup.com

Need a 2010 Draft Guide? Support Hatty with the purchase of a $5 2010 draft guide.