Cal Set to Win Pac-10 Title For First Time Since...

    The California Golden Bears Men's Basketball Team is 9-4 in Pac-10 play with 5 games remaining.  They lead Arizona St. by 1 game with a head-to-head matchup still to come.  Don't expect Cal to relinquish that lead.

    In the remaining 5 games, Cal plays 2 at home, one of which is against a team they have already defeated.  The other team, Arizona, defeated Cal by a mere 4 points on the road last month.  So far this season, Cal is 13-2 at home, but even that record doesn't indicate the dominance they have showed in Berkeley this season.  One of those "home" losses was a game against Ohio State on the other side of the country in Madison Square Garden.  The second loss was by one point to a UCLA squad that won on a miracle shot in the last 1.9 second of overtime. 

    So in reality, Cal is 1.9 seconds away from being undefeated at home. 

    Taking a step back, Cal has simply proven that they are the best team in a Pac-10 conference depleted from early departures (Mayo, Love, Hawes, Lopez, etc.) 

    In their 9 conference victories this season, the Bears have an average margin of victory of 13.9 points.  Compare this with the average differential of 5.8 points in their losses, and the Bears have shown that their talent outweighs their missteps. 

    Of their 4 losses, though, one came against Washington in a score of 83-69.  Take that game out, and in the other 3 losses, the average point differential is 2.7.  So if you really look at it, the Bears only have one true loss, and that was on the road against a Huskies team that is 16-1 at home. 

    In their 9 victories, the Bears have defeated their opponent by double digits 5 times, including an 89-57 rout against Oregon and a 92-66 victory against rival Stanford. 

  In their wins, they have shot 51.5% from the field, including 41.1.% from 3-point range in 151 attempts.  These types of numbers are hard to overcome for any opponent.

    Even on the glass Cal has held their own.  They have averaged 0.78 more rebounds a game than their opponent in those victories, and that is saying something from a squad not known for their height advantage. 

    In their 4 losses, however, Cal has been out-rebounded by an average of 6.5 boards per game.  Even further, they have shot only 38.7% from the field and 26.9% from 3-point range in those games. 

    It is clear that this is a team that lives and dies by the success of shooters Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher, and Theo Robertson. 

    When they're on, they're on.  When they're not, they're not.

    It is worth noting, however, that the Bear's three losses not against Washington have been winnable games.  The fact that they shot rather poorly indicates that the Bears are capable of so much more than the 9 wins they hold.  This also indicates that maybe the Bears aren't ready for the bigger stage, the NCAA Tournament. 

    On any given night the Bears can hang with any team in America, but so too can they be defeated by a solid team with a more than capable post player. 

    The key for the Bears in these remaining 5 conference games is shot selection.  In the loss at home to UCLA, arguably the most devastating, the Bears shot 2-18 from 3-point range for a lowly 11.1%. 

    On those nights when the shots aren't falling, and there will always be some of those nights, the Bears have to make the extra pass and find the open man. 

    In recent games, forward Jamal Boykin has stepped up his game scoring 38 points and grabbing 22 rebounds in the latest two victories. 

    His emergence might call for more respect from defenses in these remaining games, and this might help to open up an open three pointer shot.

    In their remaining two home games, the Bears need victories and they should be able to find victories.  The two teams they play, Arizona and Arizona State, are a combined 6-12 on the road with losses to Oregon State, Washington State, and USC among others. 

    For this reason you can expect the Bears to defeat Arizona State, opening up a two game cushion.

    Arizona State, then, will have 2 more games on the road against teams they have already lost to. 

    Expect Cal to defeat both Arizona schools when they visit Berkeley.

    Before that, though, they must once again defeat the Oregon schools whom they defeated at home last month. 

    Oregon was handled by 32 points, and, though the score will undoubtedly be closer, the Bears will once again hold off the Beavers who have not proven they can consistently win in the Pac-10.

    Combined, the Oregon schools have the same number of conference victories as the Bears. 

    Individually, they cannot compare to the Bears. 

    Oregon State has only two players averaging over 10 points while the Bears have four.

    The final game of the conference season will come against Stanford on the road on March 7th. 

    Stanford is another team struggling with inconsistency, like most in the Pac-10, and they do not have the talent to match the Bears' play.

    On paper the Bears should win out to finish the season at 22-8 and 14-4 in league play, but things don't always work out as they should. 

    With a 4-5 record the Bears have shown some inconsistency on the road, and there's no reason to doubt the ice-cold shooting that has made itself known on certain nights on the road.

    In the end, the Bears will finish the conference season in first place in the conference. 

    On March 8th, the Bears will be 21-9 (13-5).