Don't Miss the Mark: Regression Is Coming for Mark Reynolds

Eric StashinFeb 5, 2010

Mark Reynolds is a player who, in my opinion, has regression written all over him. He’s coming off a tremendous season, to say the least, but how can we expect him to repeat this line:

578 At Bats
.260 Batting Average (150 Hits)
44 Home Runs
102 RBI
98 Runs
24 Stolen Bases
.349 On Base Percentage
.543 Slugging Percentage
.341 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Let’s take a look at the first and most obvious problem, the average. He could just as easily hit .230 as he could repeat a .260 average again. When you strike out 38.6% of the time (and 37.5% for his career), you need to get extremely lucky to maintain a usable average.

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It’s easy to say, when you hit 44 HRs, that you don’t need as much luck as normal, and that is true. Balls that leave the ballpark are not in play, but I wouldn’t expect him to be able to replicate the power he posted in ‘09.

Last season he saw his HR/FB rise to 26.0%, after being at 18.2% in ‘08. That mark led the league, ahead of Ryan Howard (25.4%), Carlos Pena (23.8%) and Prince Fielder (23.1%). Those were the only three other players who posted marks above 23% in ‘09. Until he proves that he can repeat that level, you just can’t expect it. I’d look for his numbers to be somewhere in-between his ‘08 and ‘09 marks.

With a fall from his 44 HR campaign likely, it will in turn further diminish his likelihood of posting a usable average. Is he going to fall into the mid-20s? Of course not. He’s proven that he is one of the top power options in the game, just not at that level. How many players can you expect 40+ HRs from every season? From 2008 to 2009, the answer is one… Ryan Howard.

The other number that screams regression is his stolen base total. Simply put, it came out of nowhere. In 2008 he stole just 11 bases (in 13 attempts). In his entire Minor League career (1,216 AB) he attempted just 16 bases (successful on 11).

How can we expect him to once again attempt 33 stolen bases? That just seems like a long shot to me, especially since he hits in the middle of the order. Time will tell, but I certainly wouldn’t enter the season expecting it.

The runs and RBI numbers are believable and repeatable. He has the power and is in the middle of the lineup with some other talented players. With Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, and Adam LaRoche joining him in the three through six spots, there should be plenty of opportunities to both drive in and score runs.

Let’s take a look at what I’m expecting from him in 2010:

.250 (146-585), 36 HRs, 105 RBI, 95 Rs, 16 SBs, .329 BABIP, .335 OBP, .497 SLG

Before we say that the SB are too low, it would be the second highest total of his career. It’s not like I’m expecting him to stop running altogether. I just don’t see last season’s jump as repeatable.

I’m also not expecting his power to simply disappear. He’s going to remain one of the preeminent power hitters in the game (in fact, I have him projected as tied for seventh in home runs). The HR/FB was just inflated, leading to my projected regression.

The average is anyone’s guess. I have him at .250, but that is almost like an over/under. What do you think, will he be lucky and hit above it or unlucky and below it? It could go either way.

Is the sum of his parts worth owning? Absolutely, just be careful of the cost. I have him ranked as more of a mid-third round pick, meaning I'm not going to end up with him on my teams considering his second round ADP. Don't pay for his 2009 statistics, because it's hard to imagine him repeating them.

What do you think? Will Reynolds regress, or could he repeat his 2009 numbers? What are you expecting from him?

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