Super Bowl XLIV Betting Trends: Do Trends Matter In The Big Game?

Super bowl XLIV Betting Trends: What’s in a Trend?

Superbowl XLIV Sports betting trends

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Any trend bettor will tell you that a sports bettor should look at trends before betting a football game. Trends tell you how teams play in a certain situation and this could lead to backing them in a key situation and cashing the winning ticket. Of course how can you tell when a trend is worthy of a play or just a random coincidence?

Well let’s look at a few for the big game on Sunday.

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Some trends are useless and have no meaning whatsoever like the first trend that I found courtesy of BetUs.com. On Tuesday, Punxsutawney Phil determined that we were set to have six more weeks of winter when he saw his shadow. This will mark three straight years in which winter has been extended. The first two? Both covers for the NFC and for the underdog in the Super Bowl. The one year spring came early was in 2007. That was the year that Indianapolis knocked off Chicago in Super Bowl XLI. From 2001-2006, the groundhog predicted six more weeks of winter weather as well. In those six years, underdogs went 5-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. This trend is a pure coincidence and does not need any further explanation.

Let’s look at performance trends, if you can predict the performances of the players the result will be some excellent trends in your favor.

Peyton Manning throws two TD’s: In games where #18 throws two TD’s or more, Indy went 11-0 SU and 10-0-1 ATS. In fact, if you include the ‘08 season, the Colts are 14-0 SU and 13-0-1 ATS in games in which Manning tosses at least two scores.Drew Brees also has a great trend where if he throws for over 300 yards than his team usually wins and covers the number, but wait one minute. Isn’t this obvious? I mean if the QB does well they have a better chance of winning.

Let’s break down the trends for each team and see if any of these can be helpful to the bettor.

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Indianapolis Colts

Colts are 5-0 ATS on grass field

Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Colts are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Colts are 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Colts are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.

Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite.

Colts are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.

Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Colts are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Colts are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

Colts are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. win.

Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.

Colts are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.

Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
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New Orleans Saints

The Saints are 8-0 ATS vs. AFC

Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.

Saints are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.

Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.

Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games.

Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.

Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

But wait there is more, what about statistically trends or ones that are just for the super bowls of the past?
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Trends From the Super Bowl

Favorites in the Super Bowl are 30-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-19-3 (52.5%). However, over the past eight years, the underdog owns a 6-2 ATS (75.0%) edge. The only two favorites to win and cover in that span were Indy in ’07 and Pittsburgh in ’06.

The straight up winner is 34-6-3 ATS (85%) in the 43 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-3 ATS the past six years.

The NFC holds a 22-21 SU and 22-18-3 (55%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in ’03.

#1 seeds from the NFC are on a 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS slide since 2001 in the Super Bowl.

The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-11-2 ATS (8.3%) in the last 14 Super Bowl games! This would be our golden nugget except for the fact that both Indianapolis and New Orleans were #1 seeds out of their respective conferences.

The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

Teams playing in their first Super Bowl against an experienced club are 5-2-1 ATS in their L8.

In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.1 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.4 PPG, an average winning margin 14.7 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.

There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).

In a nutshell it is easy to find a trend that favors either team in any game but the key is to find ones that are relevant to the situation and may actually give you an edge in the game. Look closely for a decent trend and make sure it applies and place your wager for Super bowl 44!
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