1 Player from Each MLB Team with the Biggest Bust Potential for 2022
Assuming there is a Major League Baseball season in 2022—fingers crossed, everyone—the league's brightest stars will have as much power as anyone to make the pain of the lockout go away.
The law of averages, though, says that not all of them will be up to it.
We've identified one player from each of MLB's 30 teams with real bust potential for the coming season. For some, there's simply a high likelihood of regression after excellent 2021 seasons. For others, there are also age-, performance- or injury-related concerns.
We'll go division by division, starting in the American League East and ending in the National League West.
American League East
1 of 6
Baltimore Orioles: CF Cedric Mullins
2021 rWAR: 5.7
While Mullins didn't necessarily outperform his peripherals to achieve a 30-30 season in 2021, he did frontload his production, going from a .921 OPS in the first half to an .822 OPS in the second. Underlying factors included higher rates of ground balls and infield pop-ups, so he'll be on shaky ground if he picks up where he left off.
Boston Red Sox: RHP Nathan Eovaldi
2021 rWAR: 4.6
After missing the 2017 season following his second Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi pitched just 227 innings across 2018, 2019 and 2020. It was shocking, then, to see him make 32 starts and handle 182.1 innings last season. Between his track record and the fact that he just turned 32 on Feb. 13, the Red Sox shouldn't expect similar durability from him in 2022.
New York Yankees: LHP Aroldis Chapman
2021 rWAR: 1.5
Last year saw Chapman start strong but then struggle to the tune of a 5.40 ERA over his last 38 appearances. His decline curiously coincided with MLB's crackdown on sticky stuff, and the spin rate on his fastball only allowed for further suspicion. It was 2,452 RPM through June 9 and 2,330 RPM afterward. If he can't fix that, he might not be long for the Yankees' closer role.
Tampa Bay Rays: DH Austin Meadows
2021 rWAR: 2.0
Wander Franco would be the easy pick here, but there aren't any obvious red flags embedded in his rise as an elite hitter late last season. Meadows, on the other hand, was silenced by left-handed pitching and hamstrung by defensive shifts. If he can't rid himself of those problems, his margin for error will be razor-thin.
Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Kevin Gausman
2021 rWAR: 5.2
On account of how hard he hit the ball in 2021, we dare not cast doubt on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, the Blue Jays' new $110 million hurler is fair game. Gausman pitched like an ace in the first half of 2021, but his ERA rose by nearly three runs in the second half. He gave up more home runs and generally got hit harder, so it might not have been any kind of standard regression.
American League Central
2 of 6
Chicago White Sox: C Yasmani Grandal
2021 rWAR: 3.7
The 157 OPS+ that Grandal posted last year is the highest ever for a hitter who also hit .240 or below. That speaks to how on point he was with his patience and power, but it's also the sort of performance that he'll be hard-pressed to repeat. If it's a specific red flag you want, how about the fact that his ground-ball rate curiously increased alongside his power last year?
Cleveland Guardians: RHP Shane Bieber
2021 rWAR: 2.7
Bieber is an easy pick here simply because it's only natural to worry about lingering effects from last year's shoulder strain. Yet staying healthy won't be his only challenge in 2022. The 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner will also need to revitalize a four-seam fastball that let him down last season. After slugging just .347 against it in 2020, batters got to it for a .480 mark in 2021.
Detroit Tigers: SS Javier Baez
2021 rWAR: 2.7
This spot could just as easily belong to the Tigers' other high-profile signing, left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. It goes to Baez, though, because he signed for nearly twice as much money even though he's roughly twice as volatile as E-Rod. He's the most all-or-nothing hitter in the sport, and the downsides of that were plainly evident as he was hitting to an 85 wRC+ between July 2020 and August 2021.
Kansas City Royals: C Salvador Perez
2021 rWAR: 5.3
Frankly, it's hard to imagine Perez being any better after setting a record for a primary catcher with 48 home runs in 2021. To be fair, his contact quality was elite. But with chase, walk and strikeout rates that all placed among the worst in baseball, he'll either need to keep mashing upon contact or find ways to improve the quality of his at-bats.
Minnesota Twins: CF Byron Buxton
2021 rWAR: 4.5
Last year saw Buxton become the first player in 101 years to post 4.5 WAR in 61 or fewer games. But in the latest variation on a theme that's been playing his whole career, injuries kept him from seeing his excellence through to the end. The Twins must hope that his $100 million extension is a new beginning, but it should go without saying there's no guarantee of that.
American League West
3 of 6
Houston Astros: RHP Justin Verlander
2021 rWAR: 0
Verlander is set to make more money than all but one other Astro and eight other starting pitchers in 2022. He deserves it based on his track record, yet this also amounts to a lot of pressure for a 39-year-old who's coming back from Tommy John surgery. Even if you ignore the latter element, it's been 14 years since the last star-caliber season by a 39-year-old hurler.
Los Angeles Angels: DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani
2021 rWAR: 9.1
If ever there was an excuse for an "only way from here is down" outlook, it's surely in relation to a season unlike any other in baseball history. Believe us—we know it's actually possible for Ohtani to get better, but not if he continues to struggle with inconsistency as a hitter and with his fastball as a pitcher, which is to say nothing of his potential for physical breakdown.
Oakland Athletics: 3B Matt Chapman
2021 rWAR: 3.5
This is assuming that Chapman will still be on the A's come Opening Day, which...well, stay tuned. But regardless, he has things to prove offensively after slipping to a .215/.306/.431 slash line over the last two seasons. He's been swinging and missing a ton, particularly at fastballs. Hopefully, a fully healthy hip is all he needs to overcome this issue.
Seattle Mariners: 1B Ty France
2021 rWAR: 4.3
Perhaps nobody has had more under-the-radar success over the last two seasons than France, who's hit .294 with a 129 OPS+. However, the individual ingredients of this success are of questionable sustainability. Even a guy with his knack for getting plunked probably can't count on another 27 hit-by-pitches in 2022, in which case the poor quality of his contact will have to improve.
Texas Rangers: RHP Jon Gray
2021 rWAR: 1.6
The Rangers sunk $56 million into Gray even in spite of his wildly up-and-down experience in the majors. Maybe they're onto something in thinking that he just needs to get out of Coors Field, yet his career home/road splits undercut that idea. Rather than a change of scenery, what he seems to need is a whole new fastball that actually, you know, works.
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National League East
4 of 6
Atlanta: RHP Ian Anderson
2021 rWAR: 2.9
Anderson is already a postseason legend, yet he didn't come away from 2021 looking as strong as he did after 2020. Pretty much all of his peripheral metrics took a turn for the worse, with an especially alarming one being that he surrendered as many home runs (8) on his changeup as he did on his other pitches combined. That's not a good look for what's supposed to be his signature pitch.
Miami Marlins: RF Avisail Garcia
2021 rWAR: 2.9
The Marlins may yet add another impact hitter, but until then, it's up to Garcia to lift an offense that was pretty woeful in 2021. He'll do so if he has another 117 OPS+ and 29 more homers in him. However, he's still primarily a ground-ball hitter, and he seemingly overachieved on fly balls last season, so the likelihood of a step back in 2022 is on the high side.
New York Mets: RHP Max Scherzer
2021 rWAR: 5.9
At $43.3 million per year, Scherzer's deal with the Mets shattered baseball's previous record for average annual value. It'll be a good investment if he carries on as an annual Cy Young Award contender. But between his age (37) and the injury scares he had in 2019 and 2021, there are reasons to believe his acehood is on borrowed time.
Philadelphia Phillies: C J.T. Realmuto
2021 rWAR: 3.5
Realmuto has played at an All-Star-caliber level in each of the last five seasons, but he's past 30 now and starting to show some cracks. To wit, his ground-ball rate has been up in each of the last two campaigns, and he overachieved on fly balls last year. Looking a little closer, it could be difficult for him to repeat the weird cluster of home runs that he hit into the right-field corner in 2021.
Washington Nationals: RHP Josiah Gray
2021 rWAR: Minus-0.3
The Nationals consist of one unreproachable star and a bunch of guys they hope will pan out in 2022. Among the latter is Gray, who'll be out to improve on a disappointing first impression after arriving as a well-regarded prospect last July as part of the deal that sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to Hollywood. That could happen, but it surely won't if he can't fix a fastball that opposing hitters tagged for a .620 slugging percentage.
National League Central
5 of 6
Chicago Cubs: 1B Frank Schwindel
2021 rWAR: 1.8
Of all the things nobody saw coming in 2021, Schwindel ranking among baseball's best hitters after July 30 was a big one—so much so that it's doubtful anyone needs to be told that he's likely to regress in 2022. But just in case, he was a leading overachiever on fly balls, and he barely had more barrels (16) than home runs (14) for the season.
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Sonny Gray
2021 rWAR: 3.4
The Reds have precious few stars left after all the cost-cutting they've done, and they may yet trade one of their three aces. But more so than Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle, it makes sense to deal Gray sooner rather than later. Beyond being an injury risk, he was also a potential victim of the sticky-stuff ban. His spin rate was down as he pitched to a 4.64 ERA over his last 16 starts of 2021.
Milwaukee Brewers: SS Willy Adames
2021 rWAR: 4.2
Adames was among the best shortstops in baseball after he joined the Brewers on May 22 of last year. That's certainly reflective of the chip he had on his shoulder, but it nonetheless marked a departure from his baseline performance with the Rays. If the regression gods don't get him in 2022, his ongoing issues with whiffs and strikeouts could do the trick.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes
2021 rWAR: 2.4
The only practical option for this spot was Bryan Reynolds, but very little about his tremendous 2021 season doesn't pass the smell test. So instead, we'll raise the possibility that maybe Hayes won't rebound on offense after slipping to an 87 OPS+ in 2021. Whether it was because of his frequently wounded hands or something else, it's a red flag that he basically couldn't pull fastballs last year.
St. Louis Cardinals: LF Tyler O'Neill
2021 rWAR: 6.3
There's nothing wrong with O'Neill's Gold Glove-winning defense, but we daresay his offense is still in "prove it" territory even after he busted out with a 150 OPS+ and 34 home runs in 2021. If he's going to be a high-power, high-strikeout hitter, it would behoove him to be more like Ohtani and Joey Gallo than Adam Duvall and Adolis Garcia. Which is to say: More walks, please.
National League West
6 of 6
Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Zac Gallen
2021 rWAR: 2.1
Following a 2021 season marked by injuries and ineffectiveness, Gallen sure looks like a bounce-back candidate for 2022. Yet the specifics of why he was ineffective last year deserve scrutiny, particularly to the extent that his changeup ceased to be a steady source of swings and misses. Since that partially had to do with hitters being better at taking it, he might have to adjust his approach.
Colorado Rockies: 1B C.J. Cron
2021 rWAR: 3.4
Cron's impressive 2021 had a lot to do with Coors Field, where his OPS was 339 points higher than on the road. Of course, such things tend to happen there, and the stadium itself isn't going anywhere. Especially in the context of his modest exit velocity, that Cron overachieved in Denver even relative to other Rockies hitters is a bigger red flag.
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Walker Buehler
2021 rWAR: 6.7
Even as Buehler was making a run at the NL Cy Young Award through the first few months of 2021, there were questions abound as to whether his run prevention was sustainable. To wit, he was shutting opponents down despite reduced velocity and less frequent strikeouts. So, perhaps the wall (i.e., a 4.83 ERA) he hit in September is a sign of things to come.
San Diego Padres: RHP Yu Darvish
2021 rWAR: 1.4
After finishing second in the NL Cy Young Award voting for 2020, Darvish kept right on dominating at the outset of 2021. But then he found himself trying to pitch through aches and pains in his lower half, resulting in diminished velocity and a less effective slider. It ought to be easy to believe that he'll bounce back in 2022, but he's also 35 years old, so who knows?
San Francisco Giants: SS Brandon Crawford
2021 rWAR: 6.1
In addition to his usual Gold Glove defense, Crawford contributed the best offensive performance of his career last season. It passes the smell test well enough thanks to elevated rates of hard contact and barrels, yet that's not to be confused for an excuse to view such an offensive output as his new norm. Perhaps it would be if he achieved it at the age of 24, but not so much at 34.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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