Predicting the NFL's Most Surprising Cuts of the 2021 Offseason

In a salary-cap crunch, NFL teams have to cut good players, and that includes starters and Pro Bowlers.

This offseason, we could see more surprising cuts than in the past. Team executives will have the final numbers in March, but ESPN's Adam Schefter expects the cap to settle between $180 million and $181 million, down from $198.2 million last year.

As of February 18, 12 teams are over the projected salary-cap limit. With impending free agents and potential extensions in the works, those clubs face tough decisions.

As general managers look at existing contracts, veterans who play positions with depth could lose their jobs. A player without much or no dead money left on his deal could become a cap casualty. In other cases, clubs will cut high-paid underperformers. A new regime may decide a starter no longer fits the team's plans. 

Let's take a look at eight players who've played well recently and still have good years left but who could be released for the above reasons.

They're realistic cuts, though some names will raise eyebrows.

WR John Brown, Buffalo Bills

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

Cap savings: $7.9 million; Dead money: $1.6 million; Years left: 1 

Even at just $202,851 over the salary-cap limit, the Buffalo Bills may need to make sacrifices.

The Bills have a couple of key players set to become free agents in right tackle Daryl Williams and linebacker Matt Milano. According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the team could approach quarterback Josh Allen with a "massive" extension in the coming months. 

With those contracts on the priority list, the Bills can afford to cut John Brown, a 30-year-old wide receiver who missed seven games and finished fifth on the team in receptions (33) this past season.

Furthermore, rookie fourth-rounder Gabriel Davis had a solid campaign, catching 35 passes for 599 yards and seven touchdowns. His production makes Brown expendable.

The Bills' second-ranked offense should continue to move the ball consistently with All-Pro wideout Stefon Diggs, Davis and Cole Beasley as primary targets.

OT Trent Brown, Las Vegas Raiders

Jeff Bottari/Associated Press

Cap savings: $14 million; Dead money: $0; Years left: 2

The Las Vegas Raiders have a lot to consider with Trent Brown's contract situation.

In 2019, the Raiders made Brown the league's highest-paid offensive lineman. Even though he earned a Pro Bowl berth in his first campaign with the team, the 27-year-old missed five games.

For 2020, Brown sat out 11 games because of a calf issue, a positive COVID-19 test, a reported mishandling of his pregame IV and an ankle injury. 

Brown has missed half the games since he signed with the Raiders. The incident with his IV, which NFL Network's Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported, and the coronavirus go beyond his control, but general manager Mike Mayock emphasized the need for more availability, per Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

"He's under contract and when he's healthy he's dominant. And you've got to juxtapose that with his inability to play, week to week, over a two-year period. We're excited about the player, but we've got to get a more consistent player. And obviously, we're talking about everything right now. We think he's the best right tackle in the league when healthy."

With Pelissero reporting wide receiver Tyrell Williams' expected release, Vegas would save $10.6 million, which leaves it $8.3 million over the cap. 

The Raiders need significant salary relief if they plan to land a top-level free agent for their 30th-ranked scoring defense. Despite Brown's dominance, he's only played a full season in two out of six years.

Vegas can cut him and use an early-round pick on a tackle, as Brandon Parker, a 2018 third-rounder, hasn't done enough to move into the starting spot.

Edge Dee Ford, San Francisco 49ers

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Cap savings: $15.3 million (Post-June 1); Dead money: $4.8 million (Post-June 1); Years left: 3

On the surface, the San Francisco 49ers don't seem desperate for cap space. They have $13.2 million.

However, general manager John Lynch cannot use the franchise tag on left tackle Trent Williams, per ESPN's Field Yates, so he has to pay him or let the top-tier offensive lineman test the open market.

Williams just finished his eighth consecutive Pro Bowl campaign. The 49ers will probably make a strong effort to keep the unrestricted free agent.

Lynch can wave goodbye to Dee Ford with a post-June 1 designation rather than pre-June 1 to save more money.

Since the 49ers signed Ford to a five-year, $85 million contract during the 2019 offseason, he's played 272 defensive snaps. Although that seems like a player who's likely to lose his roster spot, the speedy edge-rusher logged 6.5 sacks for a championship-level defense in 2019 before neck and back injuries limited him to one 2020 appearance.

If Ford shakes off the injury bug, he's an impact defender who can help the 49ers defense return to dominance. Unfortunately for him, San Francisco needs cap space to pay Williams, who plays a more important position.

For the long term, San Francisco would still have Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead on the edge.

CB Joe Haden, Pittsburgh Steelers

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Cap savings: $7 million; Dead money: $8.6 million; Years left: 1

This cut would take many by surprise because the cash-strapped Pittsburgh Steelers would have to eat more dead money than they'd save for releasing cornerback Joe Haden.

Yet in a Jan. 22 mailbag response, The Athletic's Ed Bouchette suggested the Steelers may keep one of the following: Haden, Steven Nelson or free-agent Mike Hilton. 

In another answer to a question about the Steelers' cornerback situation, Bouchette wrote that free-agent Cameron Sutton could return at the expense of a starter.

"There is a chance they could cut one of their veteran cornerbacks and sign Cam Sutton, yes," he wrote. "I don't think they'd cut one and sign Mike Hilton unless he was on the cheap." 

Pittsburgh can retain Sutton, who's 25 years old, at a cheaper price than Haden or Nelson. 

Secondly, Sutton can line up in the slot or on the perimeter, so he has the versatility to replace Hilton on the inside or at either starting boundary cornerback. 

Although Haden recorded 12 pass breakups and two interceptions while allowing a 50.6 percent completion rate in coverage, he's turning 32 in April, roughly four years older than Nelson. 

Slightly beyond his prime years, Haden could become a surprise cut with Sutton set to fill the void on a modest deal.

RB David Johnson, Houston Texans

Zach Bolinger/Associated Press

Cap savings: $6.4 million; Dead money: $2.1 million; Years left: 1

The Houston Texans can turn the page on one of former general manager and head coach Bill O'Brien's head-scratching trades.

Last offseason, the Texans sent All-Pro wideout DeAndre Hopkins and a 2020 fourth-rounder to the Arizona Cardinals for running back David Johnson, a 2020 second-rounder and a fourth-rounder in the upcoming draft.

Coming off a disappointing, injury-riddled campaign in which he lost the starting job to Kenyan Drake in Arizona, Johnson held on to the lead role with the Texans. He didn't bounce back to his 2016 All-Pro form but finished with a career-high 4.7 yards per carry. 

On the ground, Johnson had a more efficient year than Duke Johnson, who averaged 3.1 yards per rush attempt. Yet the former barely eclipsed 1,000 scrimmage yards through 12 contests.

David Johnson also suffered a concussion and landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, all of which cost him four games. With the Northern Iowa product going into his age-30 campaign carrying a history of injuries and average production, the Texans may look for his replacement on Day 2 of the draft. 

And as it's at odds with quarterback Deshaun Watson, who requested a trade, per Schefter, the team may have to rely heavily on its ground attack in the upcoming season. When you consider Johnson's age and his recent missed appearances, he's not equipped to handle a heavy workload.

OT Riley Reiff, Minnesota Vikings

David Berding/Associated Press

Cap savings: $11.8 million; Dead money: $3.2 million; Years left: 1

The Minnesota Vikings could prepare 2020 second-rounder Ezra Cleveland to play his natural position at left tackle in the upcoming season. 

Last year, Cleveland started nine games at right guard. At 6'6", 311 pounds, he struggled with pass protection on the interior, giving up five sacks, per Pro Football Focus.

Cleveland would likely fare better on the perimeter, where he can use his athleticism and quickness in the Vikings' outside-zone scheme, but that would likely happen at Riley Reiff's expense.

According to Pelissero, Reiff received a $1 million signing bonus to compensate for a snap-count incentive he missed while on the COVID-19 list.

While that's a great gesture from the organization, the Vikings may cut Reiff before he earns a $5 million roster bonus March 19.

Last offseason, Reiff sat on the hot seat. According to Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk, he expected the team to cut him and told teammates as much. Instead, the Vikings restructured his deal, per Yates.

According to Pro Football Focus, Reiff only allowed one sack through 1,003 snaps. With that performance, he should remain on the roster. Nevertheless, at $8.6 million over the cap, the Vikings need to make cuts. With a high draft pick and tackle-in-waiting behind him, the 32-year-old could lose his roster spot.

Edge Preston Smith, Green Bay Packers

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Cap savings: $12 million (Post-June 1); Dead money: $4 million (Post-June 1); Years left: 2

Initially, it seemed as though the Green Bay Packers hit the jackpot during the 2019 free-agency period. They signed Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith. The duo recorded a combined 25.5 sacks in the following season.

In 2020, as a pass-rusher, Preston took a step back. He recorded just four sacks and 16 quarterback pressures, which is comparable to Rashan Gary, who recorded five sacks and 19 quarterback pressures.

Yet Gary played 358 fewer defensive snaps than Smith. At $19.9 million over the salary cap, the Packers may choose youth and cap relief over a solid veteran and limited financial flexibility. 

Green Bay hired defensive coordinator Joe Barry to replace Mike Pettine. In the same role, Barry coached Smith for two years in Washington. 

That connection makes this a difficult cut, but the Packers have a top-15 pick from the 2019 draft in Gary, who could become a special playmaker. 

As a post-June 1 cut, Smith's release would help the Packers move closer to the projected $180.5 million salary-cap line and open more snaps for Gary.

S Kenny Vaccaro, Tennessee Titans

Zach Bolinger/Associated Press

Cap savings: $5.4 million (Post-June 1); Dead money: $1.5 million (Post-June 1); Years left: 2

The Tennessee Titans have to strengthen their 29th-ranked pass defense, which gave up the second-most touchdowns in 2020. They can either bolster the pass rush or make changes in the secondary. 

At $3.1 million over the salary cap, the Titans don't have the financial capital to pursue top-tier edge-rushers. Harold Landry, who led the team with 5.5 sacks last season, needs help on the edge. 

The Titans can designate cornerback Malcolm Butler as a post-June 1 cut and save $12.2 million, but he had a strong 2020, logging four interceptions and 14 pass breakups. Tennessee shouldn't release its best cover man.

Kenny Vaccaro's contract doesn't hold as much in savings, but this is a good start for a club that's $3.1 million over the cap.

For the past three seasons with the Titans, Vaccaro has started in 42 contests as a solid defender, recording 225 tackles, 12 for loss, four sacks, 14 pass breakups and two interceptions.

On the other hand, Tennessee can go into the 2021 season with its two best cover safeties—Kevin Byard and Amani Hooker, the latter of whom logged eight pass breakups and four interceptions last year—on the back end.

Hooker's ability to line up as a deep safety, within the box and in the slot, along with his progression through his second season should allow the Titans to move on from Vaccaro.

Team salary-cap projections for 2021 courtesy of Over the Cap.