NFL Free Agency 2021: Predicting Where the Top WRs Will Land

We often hear the NFL is passing league. In recent years, teams have utilized aspects of the spread offense to dissect defenses. More running backs and tight ends have become involved in the aerial attack.

The two clubs squaring off in Super Bowl LV, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, rank first and second, respectively, in passing yards. All four clubs in the conference championship games listed in the top four in passing touchdowns. 

An explosive offense with a high-performance quarterback can provide a strong roster foundation. Once the signal-caller has solid protection in the pocket, he can exploit matchups downfield. 

Both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady will face off with a plethora of pass-catching options. Despite their greatness, they're even more dangerous with dynamic and dominant receivers such as Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans. 

This year's free-agent wideout class features a strong group. Teams can find a No. 1 option, deep threats and guys who can make plays out of the slot.

We'll pair the top 10 wide receivers with teams based on roster needs, recent reports and schematic fit. This list will take salary cap into account, so clubs currently over the base $176 million cap threshold aren't included in the predictions below.

Allen Robinson II

Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated Press

At 27 years old, Allen Robinson II could hit the open market and generate interest from just about every team in need of a wide receiver. He's still in his prime and coming off a strong 2020 campaign in which he hauled in a career-high 102 catches for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns.

Robinson has served in a lead role with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears, eclipsing 1,146 receiving yards in three of seven seasons. He recorded a league-high 14 touchdown receptions during his 2015 Pro Bowl campaign.

The Bears should franchise-tag Robinson, but that's a costly investment with a question mark at quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky's contract expires this offseason, and Nick Foles threw just 10 touchdown passes and eight interceptions in nine contests during the 2020 term.

Assuming Robinson hits the open market, the New York Jets would make a great landing spot. Gang Green has a projected $65.5 million in cap space. General manager Joe Douglas could pay the wideout top dollar.

With the No. 2 overall pick, the Jets could draft a quarterback or trade the selection and build around Sam Darnold. Regardless of the decision, Robinson would immediately become the go-to option over rising sophomore receiver Denzel Mims and slot wideout Jamison Crowder.

Here's the connection: Jets head coach Robert Saleh coached linebackers for the Jaguars between 2014 and 2016 while Robinson was with the club. He's well aware of the receiver's talent. 

Prediction: Robinson signs four-year deal with the Jets

Chris Godwin

Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

Chris Godwin had a chance to challenge Allen Robinson II for the No. 1 spot among free-agent wideouts, but he's eclipsed 842 receiving yards in just one of his four campaigns. The 2017 third-rounder has also experienced a rough postseason run en route to Super Bowl LV.

According to Pro Football Focus, Godwin has dropped seven passes during the 2020 playoffs. Although talented, he may have lost some leverage at the negotiating table.

Still, Godwin is only 24 years old, and his best football may be ahead of him. Teams will still target the Penn State product because of his high ceiling.

The New England Patriots desperately need dynamic offensive playmakers. N'Keal Harry, a 2019 first-rounder, hasn't panned out into a steady contributor yet. He's recorded just 45 receptions for 414 yards and four touchdowns in 21 games. Julian Edelman will turn 35 years old in May. The 11-year veteran missed 10 contests following knee surgery in October. 

With Cam Newton on an expiring deal, the Patriots have a question mark at quarterback. But whoever takes over the starting job could build a rapport with Godwin, who's usually a reliable lead wideout with a 68.7 percent career catch rate. 

Prediction: Godwin signs four-year deal with the Patriots

Kenny Golladay

Tony Ding/Associated Press

The Detroit Lions hit on their 2017 third-round pick, Kenny Golladay. He broke out during the 2018 campaign, logging 70 catches for 1,063 yards and five touchdowns, and then led the league with 11 touchdown receptions in 2019 while averaging 18.3 yards per catch.

Unfortunately for Golladay, he missed 11 contests because of hamstring and hip injuries this season. He only caught 20 passes for 338 yards and two touchdowns. 

The Lions hired general manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell to replace Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia, respectively. Despite Golladay's production for the 2018 and 2019 terms, he goes into an offseason of uncertainty with a new regime making a decision on his short-term future.

The Lions have already traded quarterback Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for Jared Goff, a 2021 third-round pick, a 2022 first-rounder and a 2023 first-rounder.

Goff will need some weapons in Detroit. The team's top three wideouts, Golladay, Marvin Jones Jr. and Danny Amendola, all have expiring contracts. The front office should make an attempt to keep at least one of the three.

In December, Golladay said he wanted to stay in Detroit, per Brad Galli of WXYZ-TV in Detroit.

"They drafted me here, so I just want to show my loyalty," he explained. "Of course I want to be here."

Still 27 years old, Golladay could have a place in Detroit's rebuild. Holmes and Campbell may want to see him prove it, though. The Lions should retain the fourth-year wideout on the franchise tag even at the risk of a holdout.

Prediction: Lions franchise-tag Golladay

Antonio Brown

Brett Duke/Associated Press

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers decided to load up at wide receiver midway through the 2020 campaign, signing Antonio Brown to a one-year deal.

In eight contests, Brown hauled in 45 passes for 483 yards and four touchdowns. The 32-year-old has battled a knee injury during the team's playoff run and missed the last outing against the Green Bay Packers.

According to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Tampa Bay wants Brown back for the 2021 campaign. That decision may be tied to quarterback Tom Brady, who has one year left on his deal. 

In 2019, the New England Patriots signed Brown after the Las Vegas Raiders released him. He played one game alongside Brady that season, catching four passes for 56 yards and a touchdown.

Per NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, Brady wanted Brown to join him again in Tampa Bay. As long as the former remains the starting quarterback for the Buccaneers, the latter has a decent chance to stick around. 

The Buccaneers can match up Brown's timeline with Brady's contract to keep them together for another season. 

Prediction: Buccaneers re-sign Brown on a one-year deal

T.Y. Hilton

Zach Bolinger/Associated Press

T.Y. Hilton had to fight off the injury-prone label going into the 2020 campaign. Between the 2018 and 2019 seasons, he missed eight games. The four-time Pro Bowler recorded career lows in catches (45) and receiving yards (501) during the 2019 term.

This season, Hilton struggled to establish a rapport with quarterback Philip Rivers, who retired after the Colts' wild-card loss to the Buffalo Bills. He didn't eclipse 70 receiving yards until Week 12. However, the 31-year-old had a productive four-game stretch in December, hauling in 20 receptions for 327 yards and three touchdowns. 

Hilton also avoided significant injuries. He only missed one game because of a groin issue and finished with 56 catches for 762 yards and five touchdowns. The ninth-year veteran hasn't produced at the level of a No. 1 wideout since the 2018 term (76 receptions for 1,270 yards and six scores), but owner Jim Irsay wants him back. 

"You love to see someone like T.Y. be back because he is such a good man, he's such an outstanding football player and a selfless player that you are just hoping that it works out that way," Irsay said. "But the market usually dictates that. That's the aspect of free agency."

While the Colts shouldn't overpay for a wideout past his prime, they have enough cap space (a projected $68.5 million) to retain Hilton on a short-term pact. Last offseason, he expressed a desire to finish his career with the Colts, per ESPN's Mike Wells. 

"It takes two sides," Hilton said. "It's up to [owner Jim] Irsay and [general manager] Chris [Ballard] to get the job done. I want to be a Colt. So you heard it from me." 

Indianapolis can re-sign Hilton on a modest deal and still pursue another receiver to balance a young group with only Michael Pittman Jr. (23), Parris Campbell (23) and Dezmon Patmon (22) on the books beyond the 2021 season, per Spotrac.

Prediction: Colts re-sign Hilton to a two-year extension

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Don Wright/Associated Press

JuJu Smith-Schuster jumped off to a strong start to his career, recording 169 receptions for 2,343 yards and 14 touchdowns in his first two seasons. He battled injuries through the 2019 campaign and had a decent showing in 2020, catching 97 passes for 831 yards and nine scores.

In a limited offense that featured underneath routes and short passes, Smith-Schuster didn't have many opportunities to stretch the field. Coming off elbow surgery, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ranked 28th in intended air yards per pass attempt (6.9).

The Steelers are nearly $29 million over the base salary-cap threshold. Assuming they allow Smith-Schuster to walk, a change in scenery could benefit him.

Averaging 8.6 yards per reception this season, Smith-Schuster isn't going to command a lucrative deal, but he could find a breath of fresh air in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have the No. 1 overall pick, and they could select Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who recorded 10,098 passing yards, 90 touchdowns and 17 interceptions with a 66.6 percent completion rate as a collegian.

As a possession receiver, Smith-Schuster would provide a physical element to the Jaguars' passing game. He also shows effort in his blocks downfield. The 24-year-old could round out a talented wideout group that features DJ Chark Jr. and 2020 second-rounder Laviska Shenault Jr. 

Prediction: Smith-Schuster signs three-year deal with the Jaguars

Corey Davis

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Corey Davis isn't a bust, but he didn't perform at the level of a top-five pick with the Tennessee Titans. The four-year veteran hasn't reached the 1,000-yard mark or scored more than five touchdowns in a single term.

On a positive note, Davis tied or broke career highs in catches (65), receiving yards (984), touchdowns (five) and catch rate (70.7 percent) this past season. Teams may want to see more consistency before offering him a multiyear contract, though he's worth a short-term risk because of his potential and experience in a starting role.

Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta suggested his team could sign Lamar Jackson to an extension in the offseason. If he moves forward with a new deal for his quarterback, he could settle on less costly deals at other positions.

Nevertheless, head coach John Harbaugh expressed the need for a pass-catcher after the Ravens' divisional-round loss to the Buffalo Bills, per NFL Network's Aditi Kinkhabwala. 

"A big physical receiver would be awesome for us," Harbaugh said before explaining that could be a tight end or a speed guy. "We can use anyone who is talented and good."

The Ravens could sign Davis, a 6'3", 209-pound receiver, to complement 5'9", 180-pound speedy deep threat Marquise Brown. 

Prediction: Davis signs two-year deal with the Ravens

Will Fuller V

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Will Fuller V goes into free agency with major pros and cons.

On one hand, he can stretch defenses and come down with spectacular catches for big gains. In 2020, he averaged 16.6 yards per reception with a 70.7 percent catch rate. The 26-year-old could immediately add a spark to an offense that needs chunk plays.

Despite Fuller's dynamic playmaking ability, he's yet to suit up for more than 14 games in a single season. The five-year veteran has missed 27 career games with the Houston Texans. In November, the league suspended him for violating the performance-enhancing drug policy. That ban will extend into Week 1 of the 2021 campaign. 

With the Texans heading in another direction under a new regime, Fuller may want to look elsewhere. On top of that, he built a strong rapport with quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has requested a trade, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. 

The Washington Football Team should roll the dice on Fuller if they're able to sign him at a lower price than the other top wideouts available on the open market. 

In 2020, Washington's passing attack ranked 25th in yards. Among its offensive playmakers with at least 10 receptions, only Cam Sims averaged more than 13 yards per catch. Terry McLaurin serves as a solid lead wideout, but he needs a complementary partner on the opposite side of the formation. 

Washington doesn't have a clear-cut 2021 starter at quarterback. Alex Smith isn't sure about his future. Kyle Allen will become an exclusive rights free agent. Taylor Heinicke, who started the team's wild-card loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is set to become a restricted free agent.

Regardless of how the quarterback situation shakes out, Fuller could fill the No. 2 wide receiver role and elevate Washington's passing attack.

Prediction: Fuller signs three-year deal with Washington

Nelson Agholor

Steve Marcus/Associated Press

Nelson Agholor reinvented himself with the Las Vegas Raiders. He became their No. 1 wideout, hauling in 48 receptions for 896 yards and eight touchdowns as a viable deep threat.

However, Agholor's production may have priced him out of Las Vegas.

The Raiders are currently $19 million over the base salary-cap threshold. Although they can release players such as oft-injured wideout Tyrell Williams ($11.6 million), backup quarterback Marcus Mariota ($10.7 million) and 37-year-old guard Richie Incognito ($5.5 million) to free up significant cap space without dead money owed, the Silver and Black selected multiple wideouts in the first three rounds of the 2020 draft. 

Head coach Jon Gruden can turn to Henry Ruggs III, the top wideout selected in last year's class, and Bryan Edwards to fill the void at the position. The Raiders should push to re-sign Agholor, but they have the depth to move on instead of overpaying him. 

Coming off his best season, Agholor could look for the best offer on the open market.

Indianapolis Colts head coach and play-caller Frank Reich worked with Agholor when he served as the Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator between the 2016 and 2017 campaigns. They won a Super Bowl together in the latter term. 

Agholor played well in Reich's scheme during the 2017 season, recording 62 receptions for 768 yards and eight touchdowns. They could rekindle their work relationship in Indianapolis as T.Y. Hilton ages past his prime. 

With $68.5 million in projected cap space, Indianapolis could re-sign Hilton and acquire Agholor without breaking the bank. 

Prediction: Agholor signs three-year deal with the Colts

Curtis Samuel

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

In 2020, Curtis Samuel had his best season, logging 77 receptions for 851 yards and three touchdowns, but he listed third on the Carolina Panthers in targets (97) behind wideouts Robby Anderson (136) and DJ Moore (118).

Carolina, under the previous regime, selected Moore with a first-round pick in the 2018 draft. Under head coach Matt Rhule and offensive coordinator Joe Brady, he became a big-play threat, averaging 18.1 yards per reception. The Maryland product seems to have a firm role in the offense.

The Panthers signed Anderson to a two-year, $20 million contract last offseason. He'll likely play a significant role in the offense for the upcoming campaign.

If running back Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy, he'll command plenty of targets after missing 13 games this past term.

Samuel has to go elsewhere to reach his potential. He could carve out a sizeable role with the Miami Dolphins, who need to surround quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with more offensive playmakers. 

Wideout Preston Williams has struggled to stay healthy. He's played just eight games in each of his first two campaigns because of a torn ACL and a season-ending foot injury. 

The Dolphins could select a wide receiver with one of their two first-round picks, but they should also sign a veteran in case Williams continues to battle injuries. DeVante Parker, Samuel and a top prospect such as Ja'Marr Chase, DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle should help Tagovailoa's development.

Samuel's ability to contribute on the ground (72 rush attempts for 478 yards and five touchdowns in his career) would add an intriguing dimension to the Dolphins offense.

Prediction: Samuel signs three-year deal with the Dolphins