Japanese League SP Tomoyuki Sugano's Scouting Report and MLB Comparison
For teams unwilling or unable to shell out the money it will take to sign National League Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer this offseason, it's slim pickings on the free-agent market as far as impact starting pitching is concerned.
That is precisely the reason Japanese League star Tomoyuki Sugano is among the most compelling characters of the 2020-21 MLB offseason.
The 31-year-old ace of the Yomiuri Giants has put together a stellar eight-year career in Japan, including a dominant performance in 2020, and now he's gearing up to potentially make the jump stateside.
His decision on whether to make the move to MLB—and where to sign if he does—is expected to come Tuesday, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
He may not come with the same hype that fellow Japanese standouts Daisuke Matsuzaka, Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Shohei Ohtani boasted when they made the MLB move, but he checks all the boxes to be an effective MLB starter.
Background
The Japanese League equivalent of the Cy Young Award is the Eiji Sawamura Award, which is given annually to the top starting pitcher in Japan.
There are two Sawamura Awards in Sugano's trophy case thanks to dominant seasons in 2017 and 2018:
- 2017: 25 G, 17-5, 1.59 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 171 K, 187.1 IP, 6 CG, 4 SHO
- 2018: 28 G, 15-8, 2.14 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 200 K, 202.0 IP, 10 CG, 8 SHO
With equally impressive numbers, he could have won another one in 2020, but he was edged out by Chunichi Dragons ace Yudai Ono.
In 20 starts, Sugano went 14-2 with a 1.97 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 131 strikeouts in 137.1 innings, tossing three shutouts along the way. With that, he now has a 2.34 ERA over 1,362 career innings in Japan, and his 4.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio speaks to the quality of his stuff and his overall command.
So what exactly does he bring to the table in terms of pitching repertoire?
Scouting Report and MLB Player Comparison
World Baseball Classic fans might remember Sugano from the 2017 tournament.
He pitched against Team USA in the semifinal game, allowing just one unearned run in six strong innings while striking out six and walking just one. His performance drew rave reviews from a number of U.S. players, but no one was more impressed than longtime MLB manager Jim Leyland, who has seen his fair share of quality pitching over the years.
"Tonight, the starting pitcher for Japan, he's a big league pitcher," Leyland told reporters. "He's good. I mean, I was really impressed with him. ... Located on the ball on the outside corners, fastball. Threw 3-0 sliders. That's pretty impressive."
A high spin-rate on his pitches was pointed to as the biggest reason for his success.
"Much of Sugano's success Tuesday could be attributed to the elite spin he generated on his pitches. If you took the average spin rates of Sugano's four-seam fastball and curveball, he would rank among the 2016 MLB leaders in both, according to Statcast," Joe Trezza of MLB.com wrote.
A high-spin fastball appears faster than it actually is, and a high-spin breaking ball is harder to pick up out of a pitcher's hand, meaning both pitches play up beyond what simple velocity and break measurements might suggest.
Along with his low-90s fastball and breaking ball, he also throws a splitter that serves as an effective weapon against lefties.
That pitch mix and some deception in his delivery have helped draw comparisons to a former MLB ace.
"He projects as a No. 2 or 3 starter in the majors with an MLB comp of Johnny Cueto, so he should have plenty of suitors if does end up getting posted," Ted Baarda of Sports Info Solutions wrote.
It's a logical comparison.
Cueto pitches off a fastball-breaking ball-changeup mix with the changeup essentially serving in the same way Sugano uses his splitter. Even in his prime, Cueto never pitched with elite velocity, but he had plenty of success missing bats.
That might be the biggest question with Sugano: Does he have the swing-and-miss stuff to be effective against MLB hitters?
His 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings last season may seem a bit pedestrian at first glance, but consider that Yu Darvish tallied just 8.9 K/9 over seven seasons in Japan before making the MLB jump and emerging as one of the best strikeout pitchers in baseball.
High-spin stuff and advanced pitchability play at any level. So while Sugano may not have the same vast repertoire Darvish does, there's no reason to believe his strikeout rate can't tick up away from the more contact-oriented Japanese League.
Predictions
Let's start with what a reasonable expectation should be for Sugano's asking price.
As Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote back in October, "Two MLB scouts who have a history covering Sugano project him as a strong No. 3 type starter in the majors."
Last offseason, second-tier starters Kyle Gibson (3/$30M), Tanner Roark (2/$24M), Michael Pineda (2/$20M), Rick Porcello (1/$10M), Kevin Gausman (1/$9M) and Julio Teheran (1/$9M) all had similar earning power, and it's fair to classify that group as a notch below the "strong No. 3 starter" type.
By that logic, a $12 million salary over three or four years seems like a reasonable expectation for what it might cost to land Sugano, especially considering he reportedly has a four-year offer on the table from Yomiuri.
A three-year, $36 million deal might be his ceiling in a normal offseason. But in this slow-moving market and on the heels of significant financial losses during the coronavirus pandemic, it may wind up being closer to three years and $30 million.
Now, onto the bigger question of who is going to sign him.
Heyman lists the San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays as two teams with clear interest while also throwing some water on previously reported interest from the New York Mets.
The Blue Jays have seemingly been sniffing around everyone this offseason, and they make a ton of sense as a landing spot.
Their current projected rotation is filled with question marks behind Hyun Jin Ryu, with Robbie Ray (6.62 ERA), Tanner Roark (6.80 ERA) and Ross Stripling (5.84 ERA) all struggling in 2020 and top prospect Nate Pearson still unproven at the MLB level. After a surprise postseason appearance and with a dynamic young core in place on the offensive side of things, spending on pitching is the logical move this winter.
The Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies are among the other teams in serious need of starting pitching help, but I'm buying the connection to the Blue Jays.
Final Prediction: Sugano signs a three-year, $30 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, unless otherwise noted.
