1 Trade Every NBA Contender Should Make to Go All-In
The race to the 2020-21 NBA championship begins Dec. 22, but the 30-team field isn't as wide as it sounds.
The Association's rebuilders are technically part of the 72-game marathon, but they have no designs of winning it. The league's middle class might occasionally entertain hopes of raising a championship banner into the rafters, but they don't have the gear to sprint through the final stretch.
The way oddsmakers—specifically, the folks over at FanDuel—see it, the champion Los Angeles Lakers are right back in pole position, and three other clubs are within arm's reach of Hollywood's finest. Then, a group of if-everything-breaks-right-it-could-happen shadow contenders round out the preseason's top 10.
We'll put every contender—simply defined as having top-10 championship odds at FanDuel—under the microscope to sniff out a potential trade that could push it over the top.
Philadelphia 76ers
1 of 10
The Trade: Ben Simmons, Tyrese Maxey and 2023 top-10-protected first-round pick to Houston Rockets for James Harden
The 76ers are the most likely winners of the James Harden sweepstakes, per Marc Stein of the New York Times, but everything hinges on their willingness to play the trump card that is Ben Simmons.
Philly didn't want to let him go when Elton Brand was calling the shots this summer, and that stance hasn't changed under new president of basketball operations Daryl Morey, per ESPN's Ramona Shelburne and Adrian Wojnarowski. But if the Sixers want Harden—and, given his potential with Joel Embiid, they absolutely should—then Simmons becomes the sacrifice they almost certainly have to make.
If it brokers this blockbuster, Philly would have the shooter and half-court creator Embiid was meant to line up alongside. The Sixers are on the doorstep of contention, but a major move for Harden, last season's third-ranked player overall by real plus-minus, would rocket them over the threshold.
Houston, meanwhile, would walk away with a 6'10" playmaker who doubles as a five-position defender. Even without a jumper, Simmons is a fascinating player to built around, and Houston would have time to carefully construct the rest of its roster to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.
Tack on rookie guard Tyrese Maxey (who can't be traded until after Jan. 1) and a future first, and the Rockets could have their rebuilding project well underway.
Championship Odds: +2400 ($100 bet wins $2,400)
Toronto Raptors
2 of 10
The Trade: Norman Powell, Chris Boucher, Patrick McCaw and 2022 top-eight-protected first-round pick to Utah Jazz for Rudy Gobert
While the biggest worry for Toronto is half-court offense, the team doesn't have the trade chips to land an elite shot-creator—especially if it wants to maintain maximum flexibility for the 2021 offseason. So, rather than aim at a second-tier scoring threat, the Raptors could see defense as their key to high-level success and target perhaps the top interior stopper in the sport.
Rudy Gobert, a two-time Defensive Player of the Year and last season's leader in defensive real plus-minus, is an elite defense all by himself. He'd give the Raptors back the protection they lost when Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka exited in free agency and upgrade what was already last season's second-stingiest defense.
A trio of Gobert, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby would be a thicket of limbs, mobility and all kinds of intimidation. Throw in the ferocious combo of Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet, and Toronto could make outworking the opposition its championship-level skill. Gobert would also add a new element to the offense as an above-the-rim finisher after Toronto's pick-and-roll screeners ranked second-to-last in 2019-20.
As for the Jazz, they may not be keen on covering the cost of Gobert's 2021 free agency, especially when they signed (Derrick Favors) and drafted (Udoka Azubuike) potential replacements this offseason. Instead, they could flip Gobert for a plug-and-play wing in Norman Powell, a shooting-and-shot-blocking big in Chris Boucher (who can't be traded until after Feb. 23), a two-way contributor in Patrick McCaw and a future first to keep or trade.
Championship Odds: +2200
Dallas Mavericks
3 of 10
The Trade: James Johnson, Tyrell Terry and 2025 lottery-protected first-round pick to Orlando Magic for Aaron Gordon
Short on draft picks after the 2019 trade for Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavs don't have quite enough ammo to chase a top-shelf star. But that's fine, as they don't need a major lift if they have a healthy Porzingis with Luka Doncic.
After setting history's high mark in offensive efficiency last season, Dallas could continue the search for defensive upgrades, which has already delivered Josh Richardson, Wes Iwundu and rookie Josh Green. Aaron Gordon, the No. 4 pick in 2014, could be the crown jewel as a multi-positional stopper with the length, athleticism and versatility to join the elite ranks at basketball's less glamorous end.
He could quietly help elevate the offense too. If a deal to Dallas meant a full-time move to the 4 and 5 spots, Gordon could be repurposed as a mismatch small-ball big. His rim attacks would grow more potent alongside a stretch center like Porzingis, and his lob chances could multiply with a quarterback like Doncic. Plus, Gordon could expand his own arsenal with more playmaking chances as the screen-setter on high pick-and-rolls.
The Magic, meanwhile, would be finally coming to terms with the fact that it just isn't happening with their current nucleus.
Tyrell Terry could breathe new life into this perennially stagnant offense, and even if there's some overlap with him and Cole Anthony, Orlando could let those two battle it out for a long-term spot and eventually trade the other. James Johnson's expiring salary would help balance the budget, and the future first would give Dallas another rebuilding tool.
Championship Odds: +2200
Miami Heat
4 of 10
The Trade: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, KZ Okpala, Kelly Olynyk, Meyers Leonard and 2025 top-five-protected first-round pick to Houston Rockets for James Harden
If the 76ers never play their trump card with Simmons, then the Heat should lay their own with Tyler Herro.
"I do think Tyler Herro as a single trade piece trumps anything the [Brooklyn] Nets can offer," ESPN's Zach Lowe said on The Lowe Post podcast (h/t Hoop Central).
Herro is 20 years old and just averaged 16.0 points on 43.3/37.5/87.0 percent shooting on a playoff run that went to the Finals. That's interesting. So is Duncan Robinson's lethal long-range stroke (270 triples at a 44.6 percent clip last season) and, to a much lesser extent, KZ Okpala's mix of length, athleticism and raw skill. Add on Kelly Olynyk and Meyers Leonard (who can be traded after Feb. 20) as money matchers, and maybe this would be enough for Houston to bite.
If it is, watch out for Miami. Harden might not be an obvious fit for the #culture, but this offense could explode with his shooting and shot creation. He could work pick-and-roll magic with Bam Adebayo and ease the burden on Jimmy Butler. The Heat's incumbent stars, meanwhile, would help mask Harden's shortcomings on the defensive end.
Harden is the type of disgruntled star team president Pat Riley always manages to find, and he's the type of addition who would move Miami on to the top rung of contenders for Butler's age-31 campaign.
Championship Odds: +2000
Denver Nuggets
5 of 10
The Trade: Michael Porter Jr., R.J. Hampton, Gary Harris and 2021 top-eight-protected first-round pick to Washington Wizards for Bradley Beal
Michael Porter Jr. feels he can be the third star who completes Denver's championship puzzle if he's given the opportunity. Judging by the way he toyed with defenders as a freshman phenom last season (20.4 points per 36 minutes on 50.9/42.2/83.3 shooting), there's a chance he's right.
But the Nuggets need to be patient to find that out, and they might deem the wait unnecessary. They already have a superstar in Nikola Jokic and a skyrocketing sidekick in Jamal Murray. If they fashion themselves as being one player away from a ring, they can't bank those hopes on Porter's potential.
Instead, they could shift their focus to Bradley Beal—or keep it on him, rather. The Nuggets inquired about the scoring guard around last month's draft, per Yahoo's Vincent Goodwill, and Beal continues to stand out as Denver's potential difference-maker.
The 27-year-old just delivered a handful of personal bests in 2019-20, including 30.5 points and 6.1 assists per game. Putting him in an offense with Jokic and Murray would be a cheat code come to life, and that extra support might let Beal better harness his energy for the defensive end. With him, the Nuggets could be potent enough to win the conference outright, not hope for a few collapses ahead of them.
The Wizards, who have held strong with Beal so far, might change their tune with an offer around Porter, who has offensive-focal-point potential. Washington would also walk away with R.J. Hampton (a rookie combo guard with loads of athleticism), Gary Harris (a relentless defender with two seasons of 39-plus percent shooting from three) and a first-round pick in a loaded draft. Hampton will be eligible to be dealt after Dec. 30.
Championship Odds: +1600
Boston Celtics
6 of 10
The Trade: Marcus Smart, Romeo Langford and 2021 lottery-protected first-round pick to Indiana Pacers for Victor Oladipo
Once Gordon Hayward's free-agency price tag reached the point of no return, the Celtics were right to let him bounce to Buzz City. But this offense will miss his scoring and distributing, and that's doubly true if Kemba Walker continues battling his balky left knee.
The Shamrocks could try hoping players like Romeo Langford, Jeff Teague, Aaron Nesmith and Payton Pritchard can pick up the slack, but which of those options feels more comfortable? Moreover, who seems likely to emerge in a manner that resonates across the entire league?
Rather than attaching championship hopes to prayers for player development, Boston could (finally) cash in some trade chips for an instant-impact talent. Victor Oladipo would of course need to be healthy for this to work, but if he is, he might replace all of Hayward's offensive production plus some of Marcus Smart's pesky perimeter defense.
As for Indiana, it would get out of Oladipo's upcoming free agency and bring back an elite defender in Smart (creating a compelling backcourt tandem with Malcolm Brogdon), a high-upside prospect in Langford and a first-round pick. That would be a healthy haul for a reportedly unhappy veteran with a nonzero chance of proving to be damaged goods.
Championship Odds: +1600
Los Angeles Clippers
7 of 10
The Trade: Patrick Beverley, Terance Mann and Mfiondu Kabengele to New Orleans Pelicans for Eric Bledsoe
The Clippers entered the offseason in need of a point guard upgrade. If their offense collapses in the conference semis hadn't hammered that point home, then surely the fact that Kawhi Leonard pushed them that direction should've done the trick.
And yet, the guard rotation basically went untouched. No offense to Luke Kennard, but he's not exactly a proven playmaker.
But Eric Bledsoe is. Mini-LeBron, who spent his first three campaigns with the Clippers, might do his best work at the defensive end, but he's also one of three players to average at least five assists and fewer than 2.5 turnovers per game in each of the past two seasons. While he's had some choppy playoff moments, his net differential has been a positive during all five of his career postseason trips.
L.A. could have enough shooting in other spots to stomach the slight downgrade from Beverley to Bledsoe—last season, the former averaged 1.6 threes on 38.8 percent shooting, while the latter was at 1.2 on 34.4—for a healthy upgrade in distributing and attacking. It's also probably the only deal in which the Clippers could trade Beverley and not suffer a defensive decline.
New Orleans, meanwhile, wouldn't have to abandon the postseason race, as Beverley might be a cleaner roster fit than Bledsoe, as he's a better shooter and less ball-dominant. The Pels would also net a pair of players for the future in Mfiondu Kabengele, an above-the-rim force with shooting touch, and Terance Mann, a lanky perimeter defender and improving playmaker.
Championship Odds: +650
Brooklyn Nets
8 of 10
The Trade: Taurean Prince, Rodions Kurucs and 2021 second-round pick (via ATL) to Oklahoma City Thunder for Trevor Ariza
The Nets could pivot toward a James Harden trade at any time, and if that option is on the table, it should be a no-brainer. But it's hard to align the puzzle pieces of a hypothetical Beard-to-Brooklyn blockbuster—a rebuilding Rockets team would have little use for Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie—and as good as the Nets offense would be with Harden, it's already in great hands with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
But defense is a different discussion. The addition of Bruce Brown will upgrade the backcourt defense, but he won't stop their search for a big-wing stopper.
Trevor Ariza could.
The veteran once again looms as an obvious trade target for contenders, as his three-ball hasn't aged (77 threes at a 37.2 percent clip in 2019-20), and his defense remains plenty pesky. His transition should be seamless, since he's swapped jerseys in each of the last two seasons. And it's hard to imagine the stage ever getting too big for him when he's an NBA champion with more than 100 playoff tilts under his belt.
Ariza is a fish out of water in OKC, but the Thunder are seemingly biding their time until the right offer comes along. This one could scratch the right itches. Taurean Prince is still young enough (26) for the club to consider adding him to the long-term core, and Rodions Kurucs has an intriguing skill set for a 6'9" 22-year-old. Throw another draft pick on the pile, and there's probably enough here to get general manager Sam Presti's approval.
Championship Odds: +600
Milwaukee Bucks
9 of 10
The Trade: D.J. Wilson, Jordan Nwora and 2022 second-round pick to Houston Rockets for P.J. Tucker
The Bucks just won the offseason. Giannis Antetokounmpo announced he's signing the five-year supermax extension, which might be the biggest victory in franchise history—or at least rank just behind the 1971 title.
With that cloud no longer hanging over the Badger State, Milwaukee can again shift all of its focus into championship-chasing mode. The next order of business should be expanding the group's late-game closing lineup.
P.J. Tucker would be an intriguing way to do it, as he'd up the Bucks' defensive pliability without hurting their perimeter attack. He's also miffed about not having his contract extended and became an obvious trade candidate the moment James Harden decided he was done with Space City.
The defensive potential of a Tucker-Antetokounmpo-Khris Middleton-Jrue Holiday quartet would be astronomic. This group would have some serious juice on offense too, especially if an improved Donte DiVincenzo laid claim to the closing lineup's final spot.
The Rockets, who should have no qualms about letting Tucker go, would be turning a 35-year-old role player on an expiring contract into a 2020 second-round selection (Jordan Nwora), a future second-round pick and a bouncy 24-year-old who was taken 17th overall in 2017 (D.J. Wilson). Those are the kind of dart throws a rebuilder should be taking.
Championship Odds: +550
Los Angeles Lakers
10 of 10
The Trade: Kyle Kuzma and Alfonzo McKinnie to Oklahoma City Thunder for George Hill
As far as external additions go, few teams strengthened their rosters more than the Lakers this offseason. That feels unfair considering these are the defending champs, but Rob Pelinka and his staff masterfully maximized every dollar spent. The result is a reloaded supporting cast now featuring the likes of Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, Marc Gasol and Wesley Matthews.
All are support pieces, but those are all that's needed when LeBron James and Anthony Davis serve as co-headliners. The Lakers could stand to snag another role player on the perimeter, though, as George Hill's combination of spacing, secondary playmaking and defensive versatility would be more valuable to this roster than Kyle Kuzma's isolation scoring or Alfonzo McKinnie's on-ball defense.
Hill would be an effortless addition to the Purple and Gold. He may not have a standout skill, but he's average in most things and above it in several. He can run offense or play off the ball, and he'll pester either backcourt spot at the other end. He'd come to L.A. with a wealth of experience, a sliver of it which was even spent alongside James on the 2017-18 Cleveland Cavaliers.
Hill's value to the Thunder, though, is whatever he can draw on the trade market. Here, he'd be bringing back a 25-year-old scorer in Kuzma, who's only a season removed from averaging nearly 19 points per night. McKinnie could up OKC's resistance at the defensive end or be sent packing in a future exchange.
If Kuzma eventually realizes his full potential, perhaps the Lakers could regret letting him go for a veteran role player. But if Hill helps them capture another crown before that happens, they can wash away any second guesses with leftover championship champagne.
Championship Odds: +270
Must be 21+ and present in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, West Virginia, Colorado or Tennessee. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. See sportsbook.fanduel.com for details.
All stats courtesy of NBA.com, ESPN.com and Basketball Reference unless otherwise noted.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
