Predicting What's Next for Top MLB Free Agents Post-Winter Meetings
Major League Baseball held its annual winter meetings this week. Not a whole lot actually happened, but there was a steady stream of rumors about the market's top free agents.
Let's read some tea leaves and make some predictions.
Using any and all rumors that came out during this week's meetings, we assessed where the markets for our top 10 free agents seem to stand. We also projected where they're most likely to sign.
Let's count 'em down.
10. SS Marcus Semien
1 of 10
The Oakland Athletics declined to make Marcus Semien a qualifying offer in November, indicating they don't think he's worthy of an $18.9 million salary for 2021.
This wasn't surprising, and not just because the A's are a notoriously shallow-pocketed franchise. Semien performed at a superstar level in 2019, slamming 33 home runs and racking up 8.9 rWAR. But that season looks like a clear outlier, especially after he sunk to 0.5 rWAR in 2020.
The 30-year-old's market has been sluggish, as only the Cincinnati Reds have shown interest in him as a shortstop. But as Robert Murray of FanSided reported on the eve of the winter meetings Sunday, "a few" clubs are eyeing Semien as a candidate to play second or third base.
If Semien is willing to move off short, his market will expand accordingly. We can't help but cast a curious eye at the Washington Nationals, whose needs include a third baseman and a right-handed slugger. Basically, someone who might emulate Anthony Rendon.
Best Guess: Washington Nationals
9. RHP Liam Hendriks
2 of 10
It likewise wasn't surprising when the A's opted not to extend a qualifying offer to Liam Hendriks in November, even though he's arguably the best relief pitcher in baseball.
Seriously. Hendriks made 99 appearances across the 2019 and 2020 seasons and pitched to a 1.79 ERA with a stellar 6.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. All told, the 31-year-old Australian accumulated a whopping 1.7 more rWAR than any other reliever.
Before the winter meetings, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the San Francisco Giants and Philadelphia Phillies had Hendriks on their radar. Two more high-profile suitors are also now in the hunt: the Chicago White Sox (Bob Nightengale of USA Today) and the New York Mets (Andy Martino of SNY).
Out of those clubs, there isn't much question the Phillies need Hendriks the most after their bullpen posted a league-worst 7.06 ERA in 2020. And in Dave Dombrowski, their front office isย being led by a guy who historically likes to fill needs with big names.
Best Guess: Philadelphia Phillies
8. LF/DH Michael Brantley
3 of 10
Michael Brantley and the Houston Astros had a fruitful partnership in 2019 and 2020, across which the 33-year-old hit .309 with 27 home runs.
Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Brantley and Astros were discussing a new contract as far back as early November. Though no deal has been struck yet, general manager James Click confirmed this week that the club hasn't lost interest in bringing back either Brantley or fellow free agent George Springer.
Yet Brantley has options beyond Houston. Before the winter meetings, the Toronto Blue Jays (Rosenthal) and New York Yankees (ESPN's Buster Olney) were reported to have interest in him. More recently, the White Sox (Jayson Stark of The Athletic) and Minnesota Twins (Dan Hayes of The Athletic) joined the list.
After non-tendering left fielder Eddie Rosario, the Twins offer the most natural opening for Brantley. But as we'll discuss, their sights seem set on re-signing Nelson Cruz. Otherwise, Brantley's other suitors don't need him as badly as Houston does.
Best Guess: Houston Astros
.jpg?w=256 "MLB Farm System Rankings")
7. DH Nelson Cruz
4 of 10
Speaking of fruitful partnerships, Cruz and the Twins greatly enjoyed their time together in 2019 and 2020.
The 40-year-old played in 173 games and cranked out 57 home runs with a 1.020 OPS. All that thunder was crucial for the Twins, who won 101 games and the American League Central title in 2019 and then repeated as division champions in 2020.
Even as far back as early October, Cruz and the Twins were speaking openly about their mutual desire for a reunion. The veteran slugger reportedly wants a two-year deal, however, and the latest from Hayes is that the two sides are locked in a virtual staring contest.
But the Twins might not have to worry that Cruz slips away. There have yet to be any strong rumors that link him to other clubs, and there are 15 in the National League that can't get involved with him unless the universal DH is confirmed for 2021. For now, that's no sure thing.
Best Guess: Minnesota Twins
6. SS Ha-seong Kim
5 of 10
And now for a free agent who requires a proper introduction.
Ha-seong Kim starred as a power-hitting shortstop for seven years in the Korea Baseball Organization, hitting 133 home runs and racking up an .866 OPS. He most recently cranked out 30 long balls for the Kiwoom Heroes in 2020, which was only his age-24 season.
It took a while, but the Heroes finally posted Kim on Monday. T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com reported in November that the Texas Rangers like Kim. So do the Blue Jays, according to Morosi. They might also have the inside track on Kim after he and Jays ace (and fellow countryman) Hyun Jin Ryu had dinner together.
Of course, the Blue Jays already have an up-and-coming star at shortstop in the person of Bo Bichette. But if he's willing to move to third base or the outfield, Toronto will have room to add another exciting young hitter to its lineup.
Best Guess: Toronto Blue Jays
5. 2B DJ LeMahieu
6 of 10
DJ LeMahieu and the New York Yankees is yet another fruitful partnership from the last two seasons, as LeMahieu hit .336 with 36 home runs in service of back-to-back postseason clubs.
Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, however, the Yankees have at least one strong competitor for the 32-year-old veteran in the crosstown Mets. The Blue Jays are also in on LeMahieu, and the Los Angeles Dodgers might view him as a replacement for Justin Turner at third base.
Michael Kay, who does play-by-play commentary for the Yankees on the YES Network, said on his radio show (via Randy Miller of NJ.com) that the Yankees won't be "irresponsible" and match whatever offer LeMahieu gets from other clubs. In other words, they have their limits.
According to Martino, however, the Yankees are more focused on retaining LeMahieu than they are longtime ace Masahiro Tanaka. That would indicate they aren't blind to the massive holes LeMahieu would leave at second base and in the leadoff spot.
Best Guess: New York Yankees
4. LF/DH Marcell Ozuna
7 of 10
Marcell Ozuna bet on himself when he accepted a one-year deal with Atlanta in January. It panned out brilliantly as he boosted his stock with a 1.067 OPS and National League-high 18 homers in 2020.
However, the former Gold Glove winner mostly started at designated hitter. There's skepticism over whether he can go back to left field full-time, as one scout told MLB.com's Mark Bowman: "I don't think you understand how bad he is defensively."
Given the uncertainty over the universal DH, it's little wonder that Ozuna is pushing himself as an outfielder anyway. That's an obvious appeal to his suitors in the Senior Circuit, including Atlanta, the Mets (Ken Davidoff of the New York Post) and the San Francisco Giants (Morosi).
As far as AL clubs go, only Toronto (Morosi) and Houston (MLB Network's Jon Heyman) have been linked to Ozuna. None of these teams is a perfect fit for him, yet he might make the most sense for the Astros if they lose George Springer.
Best Guess: Houston Astros
3. CF George Springer
8 of 10
Truth be told, Springer's departure from the Astros in free agency is more a matter of when than if at this point.
The 31-year-old would seem to be a shoo-in for a nine-figure deal after his seven seasons with the Astros yielded an .852 OPS, 174 home runs, three All-Star nods and a World Series title in 2017. For their part, it's been 14 years since the Astros last did such a deal with a free agent.
Even before the White Sox signed Adam Eaton, Passan reported they were "extremely unlikely" to move on Springer. That's good news for the Blue Jays, whose GM has been in "regular contact" with Springer's camp.
Yet the Mets are the clear leader in this race. They've been frequently linked to Springer since the market opened up, and Martino reported this week that he's the free agent that they're most engaged with now. Given the team's need in center field, signing him would be a good use of new owner Steve Cohen's money.
Best Guess: New York Mets
2. C J.T. Realmuto
9 of 10
One star free agent the Mets might not be signing, meanwhile, is J.T. Realmuto.
The fit between the two is obvious in that they need a catcher and he's the best there is. Especially in the last three years, Realmuto has shined in racking up an .825 OPS, 57 home runs and 10.1 rWAR. The 29-year-old has been an All-Star twice and a Gold Glover once in the process.
Yet the Mets seem determined to fill their need at catcher with James McCann, who seems this close to signing with them. That bodes well for Realmuto's other suitors, which naturally include the Phillies as well as the Blue Jays (Craig Mish of SportsGrid) and perhaps the Nationals (Morosi).
Given that they have a need at catcher in their own right, it would make sense for the Phillies to aggressively pursue a reunion with Realmuto. And apropos of Dombrowski's track record, that may be much more likely to happen now.
Best Guess: Philadelphia Phillies
1. SP Trevor Bauer
10 of 10
For teams in need of a No. 1 starting pitcher, Trevor Bauer is pretty much the only option on the open market.
Granted, his results have fluctuated throughout his nine-year career. But of late, he pitched at an All-Star level in 2018 and was even better in 2020. He put up a 1.73 ERA with 100 strikeouts and only 17 walks for the Reds, capturing the NL Cy Young Award.
Along with Springer, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the Mets are strongly interested in Bauer. To hear it from both Bauer himself and his agent, Rachel Luba, the interest is very much mutual.
Yet nobody truly needs the 29-year-old as badly as the Los Angeles Angels, who got a 5.52 ERA out of their starters in 2020. They're understandably determined to add an ace, according to Heyman, and it so happens that Bauer is a Southern California native.
Best Guess: Los Angeles Angels
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
.jpg?w=480 "MLB Farm System Rankings")
.jpg?w=600 "Offseason Moves for Every Team ๐")
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft ๐")
