Ranking the 7 Most Likely Teams to Be Starting New Quarterbacks in 2021
An NFL quarterback's starting window can close within a year. In one offseason, he could sign an extension, and in the next, the front office may select a prospect at the position early in the draft. Carson Wentz knows this scenario too well.
Front-office executives know they must secure the quarterback position in order to compete long term. Without a solid offensive centerpiece, teams take the field at a disadvantage.
While most clubs attempt to find franchise players in the draft, other teams have found success with veterans attempting to reinvent themselves. In recent years, the Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans solidified the position by signing free agent Kirk Cousins and trading for Ryan Tannehill, respectively.
Looking at the quarterback landscape while the 2020 season winds down, we can expect several new faces to command huddles next year. Let's take a look at the teams most likely to trot out a new signal-caller in 2021.
The rankings below suggest wholesale changes, meaning the likely successor hasn't made a start for the team. As a result, the list excludes the Philadelphia Eagles, who will give Jalen Hurts an opportunity in Week 14, and Taysom Hill, who's filled in for the injured Drew Brees since Week 11.
7. Washington Football Team
1 of 7
On a three-game win streak, the Washington Football Team has a chance to win the NFC East. They're currently tied with the New York Giants for the top spot, though Big Blue holds the tiebreaker because of a season series sweep.
Although quarterback Alex Smith's statistics don't look that impressive since he took over the starting job for Kyle Allen (dislocated ankle), he's stabilized the position and the offense, winning in three of his four starts.
This season, Smith has thrown for four touchdowns and five interceptions with a 68.7 percent completion rate. Yet head coach Ron Rivera said the 36-year-old signal-caller is "back as a player" and wants him to return in 2021, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport.
As Washington wins games, the team moves further away from a top-10 pick in the draft, which increases the chances that the front office lands a less heralded prospect who would likely sit in his first year rather than start. Smith is under contract through the 2022 term and could serve as a bridge quarterback.
Rivera said he had a "cut-off point" for Dwayne Haskins Jr. to show growth in the lead role. Shortly after that comment, Washington demoted him to third-string quarterback, and he's unlikely to resurface as a starter in 2021.
Washington may copy what the Kansas City Chiefs did with Patrick Mahomes between 2017 and 2018, starting Smith for a year before rolling out the future at the position.
6. Indianapolis Colts
2 of 7
Before the 2020 campaign began, Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich felt "very optimistic" about a multiyear stay for quarterback Philip Rivers. Of course, the 39-year-old has to earn another deal.
Going into Week 14, Rivers' production is trending in the right direction. Over the last three games, he's thrown for seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Compared to the previous term, the 17th-year veteran has cut down on interceptions while showing a slight improvement in his touchdown and completion rates.
Indianapolis holds the seventh seed in the AFC with the 10th-ranked passing attack. Thus far, Rivers has done enough to at least open the 2021 campaign under center for the Colts. However, his performance in the final four games will either seal another season with the team or raise concerns about his play going into an age-40 term.
Barring a trade for a younger quarterback, Rivers has proven himself as a decent bridge option for his successor. He's still efficient with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions through 12 starts.
Washington Football Team head coach Ron Rivera has already made it clear he wants Smith back in 2021. Although Reich spoke about the possibility of Rivers' return, we've yet to hear an updated statement from him with the season in progress.
5. New England Patriots
3 of 7
Cam Newton would probably prefer that everyone look away from his passing numbers. As the starter in 12 contests for the New England Patriots, he's thrown for 2,172 yards, five touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
The Patriots pulled Newton for Jarrett Stidham in the fourth quarter of Thursday's loss to the Los Angeles Rams, but head coach Bill Belichick plans to stick with his starter for now.
Yet one can make the case that Newton has done more with less compared to other quarterbacks who have uncertain futures.
Newton's top wideout, Julian Edelman, has missed seven games on injured reserve while recovering from knee surgery. Damiere Byrd, who's started in 17 contests through five seasons, leads the Patriots in receiving yards (566). Thus far, N'Keal Harry, a 2019 first-rounder, hasn't panned out as an impact player, recording just 41 receptions for 382 yards and four touchdowns in 18 outings.
The Patriots selected tight ends Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene in the third round of the 2020 draft. The two have one catch for eight yards combined.
Still, Newton has made an impact on the ground, rushing for 451 yards and 11 scores. He's a key component of the Patriots' fifth-ranked ground attack, which is tied for second in touchdowns (19).
Newton finds himself in an odd position because his numbers probably won't earn him a lucrative extension. However, teams may see him as a serviceable signal-caller with a better supporting cast.
Newton has brushed off questions about his future with the Patriots, which seems like a fluid matter based on where New England picks in the 2021 draft. His impending free agency may further complicate this situation because he could draw multiple suitors on the open market.
The Patriots are unlikely to take a long look at Stidham, who's completed 18 of 33 passes for 212 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions this season. When Newton missed Week 4 because he tested positive for COVID-19, New England started 35-year-old journeyman signal-caller Brian Hoyer.
Thus far, no word has come from Newton or the Patriots on the desire to keep this relationship going into 2021, which pushes this club ahead of the Indianapolis Colts, who have already flirted with the idea of bringing back Philip Rivers.
.jpg?w=256 "Eagles Sirianni Football")
.jpg?w=256 "Titans Football")
4. Denver Broncos
4 of 7
The Denver Broncos likely feel immense pressure within their division. Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr seem entrenched as starters for the Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders, respectively, and the Los Angeles Chargers' Justin Herbert could win Offensive Rookie of the Year. Thus far, he has accumulated 3,224 passing yards, 26 total touchdowns and nine interceptions in 11 starts.
Meanwhile, Drew Lock's sophomore campaign has gone through peaks and valleys. Even excluding Week 2 when he exited early because of a shoulder injury, the Missouri product has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes in four contests. In three complete games, he failed to throw for a touchdown. Among all qualified QBs, Lock ranks dead last in completion rate (55.4 percent).
Despite his struggles, he believes he'll show improvement in Week 14, per Troy Renck of Denver7 ABC.
"It's about me finding ways throughout the week to keep getting better, and it's going to happen," Lock said. "It's slowly happening. We are going to make a big jump this week. I am trying everything I can to keep this thing rolling."
With the quality quarterback competition in the AFC West, Broncos president of football operations and general manager John Elway may not have the patience for Lock's gradual development if the Broncos land a top-10 pick in the 2021 draft. Denver currently holds the 10th spot.
Denver lists one spot above New England because Lock doesn't have an extensive resume with just 14 starts, so we cannot view him as a bridge option. The Broncos will likely give him one more year (with a short leash) to make a leap or move on to the next young prospect as Elway tries to find a long-term answer at the position.
3. Chicago Bears
5 of 7
The Chicago Bears have tried to win with both of their top options at quarterback, to no avail.
The Bears benched Mitchell Trubisky for Nick Foles in Week 4. The latter went 2-5 as a starter before a hip injury sidelined him.
In four consecutive losses between Week 7 and 10, Foles struggled to score and turned the ball over, throwing for four touchdowns and four interceptions. Through nine seasons, he's yet to start in more than 11 contests in a single year.
With a second chance to lock down the starting job, Trubisky lost two of four fumbles over the past two outings. In Week 12 against the Green Bay Packers, he completed just 56.5 percent of his passes.
After a loss to the Packers, head coach Matt Nagy had a nonchalant response to a question about Trubisky as the starter in the following contest (h/t Jason Lieser of the Chicago Sun-Times).
"I don't see why not," Nagy said.
Nagy's answer sums up the Bears' uninspiring quarterback situation. Chicago's passing attack ranks 23rd in yards. On an expiring deal, Trubisky lost his starting job. And Foles has yet to show he can lead a team through a full season in his nine years in the league.
Even if Nagy isn't fired, he'll need to win right away to finish the final two years of his deal. With that urgency, the Bears should acquire a veteran or fast-track a rookie in the offseason.
The Denver Broncos' John Elway handpicked Drew Lock, so he's probably willing to give the young signal-caller more time to prove himself, whereas the Bears have watched Trubisky struggle through most of four terms, while Foles has disappointed as an offseason trade acquisition.
2. New York Jets
6 of 7
Don't let general manager Joe Douglas fool you. If the New York Jets finish 0-16, how could he pass on Trevor Lawrence, assuming the Clemson quarterback declares for the 2021 draft?
Lawrence would become one of the most hyped prospects since perhaps Andrew Luck from the 2012 class.
Jets quarterback Sam Darnold hasn't played up to his potential as the No. 3 overall pick of the 2018 draft. He's thrown for 41 touchdowns and 37 interceptions with a 59.7 percent completion rate in 34 starts.
Yet Douglas has publicly backed Darnold as the Jets' long-term signal-caller (h/t NFL Network's Kimberly Jones):
"I feel like he has a different set of wide receivers every week. I think you see the flashes of what he can be, and they're really special. Let's not forget that Sam's a 23-year-old quarterback that is maybe one of the toughest quarterbacks I've ever been around. I'm very excited about Sam. I have no problem saying that he is our best quarterback and our quarterback for the future."
Remember, during this past offseason, Douglas said the team was "excited about" running back Le'Veon Bell and planned to make safety Jamal Adams "a Jet for life." Gang Green then released the former and traded the latter to the Seattle Seahawks this year.
We cannot take Douglas' words at face value before the season ends and the draft order plays out. He inherited Darnold from former general manager Mike Maccagnan, so his reputation isn't tied to the current starting signal-caller.
Whether the Jets finish winless or not, expect Douglas to draft a quarterback of his choice as he sweeps out the coaching staff after one of the franchise's worst seasons.
At 5-7, the Chicago Bears remain in the wild-card mix with a mediocre record. The Jets' potential high draft placement makes them one of the most likely teams to start over at quarterback with their focus on a top prospect.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
7 of 7
The Jacksonville Jaguars will undoubtedly start a new quarterback in 2021.
Gardner Minshew II had multiple fractures and a strained ligament in his right thumb, which opened the door for rookie sixth-rounder Jake Luton to take over the huddle. After he made three starts, the Jaguars benched him for Mike Glennon.
This season, Minshew has a higher completion rate, quarterback rating and QBR than Luton and Glennon, yet the Jaguars have refused to reinsert him into the starting lineup. According to ESPN's Michael DiRocco, he's pleaded for a second chance under center.
"It's so frustrating," Minshew said. "I pretty much went and begged before the Cleveland game to be able to play. It sucks, you know. There's no way around it."
Clearly, the Jaguars have pivoted away from Minshew, who had a solid rookie campaign, throwing for 3,271 yards, 21 touchdowns and six interceptions. At 31 with just 24 starts, Glennon isn't the future for any team in need of a quarterback, and Luton is unproven.
With those three options, we can assume Jacksonville will take a quarterback using its top pick, especially if it sticks at No. 2.
The Jaguars fired David Caldwell in late November, which opens the door for a new general manager to make a decision on head coach Doug Marrone and dig into the scouting reports on potential franchise players.
While we may question Jets GM Joe Douglas' statement about Sam Darnold's future, the Jaguars have shown no sign of support for their current quarterbacks as 2021 options. The team's actions indicate imminent change at the position.
Current NFL draft order provided by Tankathon.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Eagles Sirianni Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Titans Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Bears Ravens Football")
.jpg?w=480 "49ers Aiyuk Football")
.png?w=600 "New NBA Mock Draft 📝")
