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NFL Picks Week 6: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistOctober 15, 2020

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) looks to throw during the second half of an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons, Monday, Oct. 5, 2020, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Mike Roemer)
Mike Roemer/Associated Press

The Green Bay Packers come out of their bye week and into their most difficult stretch of the NFL season. 

Aaron Rodgers and Co. start a run of three road games in the next four Sunday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

The showdown between Rodgers and Tom Brady has the lowest spread assigned to it, with the Packers being a slight one-point favorite. One of the two late afternoon games in Week 6 has NFL experts split on which team will come out on top. 

The matchup between the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers may not strum up the same amount of national intrigue, but it is expected to be one of the weekend's closest contests. 

                   

NFL Week 6 Schedule and Odds

All Times ET; Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

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Sunday, October 18

Baltimore (-7.5) at Philadelphia (1 p.m., CBS) (Over/Under: 47.5)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-3) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 51)

Denver at New England (-10) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 45)

Houston at Tennessee (-3.5) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 53)

Atlanta at Minnesota (1 p.m., Fox) (N/A)

Chicago at Carolina (-1.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 45)

Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-8) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 46.5)

Detroit (-3.5) at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 54.5)

Washington at New York Giants (-2.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 43)

New York Jets at Miami (-9.5) (4:05 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 47)

Green Bay (-1) at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 55)

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at San Francisco (8:20 p.m., NBC) (O/U: 51.5)

      

Monday, October 19

Kansas City (-3.5) at Buffalo (5 p.m., Fox/NFL Network) (O/U: 57.5)

Arizona (-1.5) at Dallas (8;15 p.m., ESPN) (O/U: 55)

      

Expert Predictions

According to NFL Pick Watch, Chicago and Green Bay have slight edges in their matchups with small point spreads. 

67 percent of experts believe the Packers will go into Raymond James Stadium and pick up a victory, while 56 percent of prognosticators believe the Bears will triumph over the Panthers. 

The experts are more sold on Indianapolis, Minnesota, Miami and Baltimore to back up their favorite status with a victory. Each of those teams are projected to win by over 90 percent of experts. 

Week 6's final game between Arizona and Dallas has experts undecided on who will win, as 50 percent of the predictions have come in for both teams.

          

Examining Week 6 Odds

Green Bay (-1) at Tampa Bay (Over/Under: 55)

Bruce Kluckhohn/Associated Press

The Packers were consistently impressive on offense in the first four weeks. 

Green Bay hit the 30-point mark in all four games and eclipsed 400 total yards in three of its four victories. 

The Packers' Week 4 win over Atlanta may be considered more impressive than the others since they torched the Falcons defense without Davante Adams in the lineup. 

Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams caught all 13 of the passes sent in their direction, and Robert Tonyan had a breakout game with three touchdowns. 

According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Adams was a full participant in Wednesday's practice, which means he should be good to start Sunday. 

The confidence Rodgers gained in his running backs and Tonyan in Week 4 should carry over to Week 6 and beyond. The Packers visit the Houston Texans in Week 7 and San Francisco 49ers in Week 9.

Green Bay's healthy receiving corps could be its advantage Sunday since Tampa Bay is dealing with some injury issues. According to Pro Football Talk's Josh Alper, Mike Evans did not practice Wednesday, but Chris Godwin returned. 

If Brady's unit is not at full strength, it could have issues beating the Packers, and that could affect how many points are scored. 

The other factor to consider with the over-under is Tampa Bay's rushing defense, which has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in five games. 

Rodgers can work around that by using Jones and Williams in the passing game, but without a consistent rushing attack, it could be harder for Green Bay to produce points out of a few drives, which could lead to a tight game and the under hitting.

             

Chicago at Carolina (-1.5) (Over/Under: 45)

Brian Westerholt/Associated Press

When the season began, few expected Week 6's game between Chicago and Carolina to feature Nick Foles against Teddy Bridgewater in a duel of teams with winning records. 

Foles has a 1-1 record as Chicago's starter, and neither contest reached the 40-point mark. He had just under 250 passing yards and was intercepted in both games. 

Carolina's defense forced eight turnovers in its last four contests and held its last three foes to 21 points or fewer.

If the Panthers force Foles into making a few bad decisions, they could set up short fields for Bridgewater and the offense that produced over 400 total yards in back-to-back weeks. 

Carolina's key to victory may be Robby Anderson's performance. The former New York Jets wide receiver has 36 catches on 46 targets for 489 yards and a touchdown.

If Bridgewater targets him on a consistent basis, Anderson could make the game-changing plays required to pick up a victory. 

Chicago can do the same thing with Allen Robinson, but he caught a smaller percentage of his targets than Anderson. Robinson brought in 35 of his 57 targets for 421 yards and two scores. 

Sunday's contest could come down to which quarterback connects best with his star wideout, but given the low-scoring nature of their recent games, the point total could go under the projected total.

            

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference

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