NFL Week 6 Picks: Game-by-Game Over-Under Predictions

After a strong start for overs in 2020, the unders came through for bettors in Week 5. In the 11 Sunday games, the under came through in six NFL games, marking the first time this season it was a better strategy. 

That may be in part to defenses getting into the swing of things with a quarter of the season behind us. It could also just be that Vegas has adjusted to the higher point totals at the beginning of the year. 

With the Patriots, Saints, Raiders and Seahawks on bye week, there some explosive offenses that will be sitting this week out. However, four of the five top offenses in terms of points per game are still in action, which means there could be a return to high-scoring action. 

Whether a balancing of the sides is now going to be the normal or this is a one-week aberration for the unders is one of the most intriguing stories of the week from a betting standpoint.

Here's a look at the totals and lines for the Week 6 slate and an over-under pick for each game. 

Week 6 Schedule, Odds and Predictions

Sunday, October 18

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 46.5) at Philadelphia Eagles: Under

Denver Broncos (n/a) at New England Patriots: N/A

Chicago Bears (+2.5, 44) at Carolina Panthers: Over

Houston Texans (n/a) at Tennessee Titans: N/A

Cincinnati Bengals (+8, 46.5) at Indianapolis Colts: Under

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, 55.5) at Minnesota Vikings: Over

Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 50.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers: Over

Washington Football Team (+3, 43) at New York Giants: Under

Detroit Lions (-3.5, 54) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Under

New York Jets (+8, 47.5) at Miami Dolphins: Under

Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 54) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 50.5) at San Francisco 49ers: Over

Monday, October 19

Kansas City Chiefs (n/a) at Buffalo Bills: N/A

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 54.5) at Dallas Cowboys: 

Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook

Best Bets

Washington at Giants: Under

This is a matchup of two floundering franchises who have experienced disappointing results this season. 

The Washington Football Team opted to bench Dwayne Haskins in favor of Kyle Allen which lasted all of 13 pass attempts before he was replaced by Alex Smith. While Smith's comeback from serious injury is inspiring, his play was not. 

Washington's offensive line has struggled to protect whoever is behind center, and Allen and Smith were sacked a combined eight times against the Los Angeles Rams last week. 

On the other side of this game, the New York Giants offense finally got things going last week, though that should come with an asterisk. After scoring 13 points or less, they blew up for 34 points against a Dallas Cowboys defense that has given up more than 30 points in four of five games. 

With no Saquon Barkley and offensive-line problems of their own, the Giants offense is far from a juggernaut. 

Expect them to return to normal and struggle to put up points in a defensive affair. 

Bears at Panthers: Over

It's easy to figure out why the total for this game has been set relatively low. The public feeling about the Chicago Bears offense has been less than positive, and the Panthers' actual results on the field have far exceeded the overall expectations for the franchise. 

The problem is that it doesn't seem to consider the uptick in the Bears offense from Nick Foles and how efficient the Panthers have been on offense. 

The Foles-led Bears offense put up 20 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after struggling against the Indianapolis Colts the previous week. The Bucs and Colts are among the top teams in the league in defensive DVOA. The Panthers defense they will see on Sunday was ranked 25th going into last week. 

The Panthers offense, on the other hand, ranked seventh in offensive DVOA and hasn't missed Christian McCaffrey as much as one would think. 

The Bears defense will be the best they've seen since playing the Bucs in Week 2. Even in that game, the Panthers scored 17 points with Teddy Bridgewater throwing for 367 yards.

Cardinals at Cowboys: Over

According to TeamRankings data, the over is 4-1 in the Cowboys' five games, while the under is 5-0 in the Cardinals' games. Something has to give on Monday night when the two teams square off in Dallas. 

The over has cashed in for four straight Cowboys games, and Dallas' porous defense is just as much a contributor to that as their offense is.

With Dak Prescott out for the season, Andy Dalton taking the reins isn't ideal, but as Kevin Cole of Pro Football Focus noted, the backup quarterback can play well enough for the Cowboys offense to still function: 

With Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb in the lineup, there's an argument to be made that Dalton has never played with this much collective skill around him. 

As far as the Cardinals go, the offense has scored 21 or more points in each of their five games. That's enough proof they can put up more than 30 against the Cowboys defense. 

This one should be a shootout and Dallas' ability to make any offense look like a Mike Leach-era Texas Tech squad on offense should win out against the forces that have made the under a perfect pick in Cardinals games.