NFL Picks Week 5: Over-Under Vegas Lines, Expert Predictions and Odds

Week 5 is projected to be the most lopsided week of the NFL season yet. 

Eight teams are favored by seven points or more, and there are an abundance of experts who believe those squads can win without facing much of a fight. 

Points are also expected to flow in from Thursday to Monday, with five matchups possessing an over-under above 50. 

The Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings are expected to score the most points Sunday, but one divisional showdown in the NFC could outpace two sides playing at CenturyLink Field. 

Week 5 Schedule and Odds

All Times ET; Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Thursday, October 8

Tampa Bay (-3.5) at Chicago (8:20 p.m., NFL Network) (Over/Under: 44.5)

Sunday, October 11

Buffalo at Tennessee (1 p.m., CBS) (N/A)

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-13.5) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 52)

Jacksonville at Houston (-6) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 54)

Las Vegas at Kansas City (-13) (1 p.m., CBS)

Arizona (-7) at New York Jets (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 47)

Carolina at Atlanta (-1.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U:54.5)

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Washington (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 45)

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (-7.5) (1 p.m., Fox)  (O/U: 44.5)

Miami at San Francisco (-9) 4:05 p.m., Fox)

Denver at New England (4:25 p.m., CBS) (N/A)

Indianapolis (-2) at Cleveland (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 46)

New York Giants at Dallas (-9.5) (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 54)

Minnesota at Seattle (-7) (8:20 p.m., NBC) (O/U: 57.5)

Monday, October 12

Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans (-7.5) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) (O/U: 51)

Picks against the spread in bold

Expert Predictions

According to NFL Pick Watch, over 90 percent of experts have sided in one direction in 12 matchups. 

The Arizona Cardinals are the only unanimous favorite for their trip to MetLife Stadium to play the New York Jets. 

Tampa Bay is heavily favored to take its Thursday night clash over Chicago. That meeting will mark the first time Tom Brady and Nick Foles face off since Foles led Philadelphia over Brady's New England Patriots to a win in Super 52. 

Pittsburgh, Baltimore and the Los Angeles Rams are among the teams with over 95 percent of the expert selections going in their favor. 

So far, the game with the biggest split is Indianapolis' trip to Cleveland, as the Browns have 52 percent of the picks going their way.

Picks

Carolina at Atlanta (Over 54.5)

Carolina comes into Week 5 off its best offensive performance of the season. 

The Panthers produced a season-best 31 points and 444 total yards to defeat Arizona, and now they get to face Atlanta's struggling defense. 

The Falcons conceded over 400 total yards in each of their last three contests, and they have been unable to stop any passing attack.

That bodes well for the growing connection between Teddy Bridgewater and Robby Anderson, which produced 99 yards in Week 4. 

Mike Davis and Reggie Bonnafon also formed a decent one-two punch out of the backfield with 137 rushing yards and 45 receiving yards. Davis may have a heavier workload against Atlanta since Bonnafon was placed on the practice squad injured list with an ankle injury, per ESPN.com's David Newton. 

Bridgewater could call on Davis, or other running backs, to break down Atlanta's porous passing defense, which has allowed the most touchdowns and second-most yards in the NFL. 

Carolina has only allowed 908 passing yards on defense, but it conceded the fifth-highest completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks at 71.7. 

The high success rate for opposing quarterbacks may allow Matt Ryan to torch the Panthers secondary with his wealth of options, led by Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. 

Ryan led the Falcons offense to over 300 total yards in every game this season, and they scored 25 points or more in their first three games.

If all of those trends come to fruition Sunday, the Panthers and Falcons may produce the highest-scoring game of the weekend.

Minnesota at Seattle (Over 57.5)

With the way Seattle's offense and defense have been playing so far, it is hard not to take the over in its games, no matter how high the total is. 

The Seahawks eclipsed the 30-point mark in each of their four victories and have conceded the most total yards in the NFL. 

Minnesota is coming off its third 30-point outing of 2020 against Houston in which it put together its second straight 400-yard game. 

The majority of Seattle's defensive concessions have come through the air, as it has allowed 1,604 passing yards compared to 303 rushing yards. 

Kirk Cousins likely will not match Russell Wilson's pocket production, but if he finds a way to throw for around 250 yards, like he has in three of four games, the Vikings can flex a balanced offense and be competitive on the road. 

The key factor for Cousins' success, and for the over to hit, is his avoidance of turnovers. Week 4 marked the first time the Minnesota quarterback did not throw an interception this season. 

If Cousins makes a few completions in third-down or long-yardage situations, and continues to receive help from Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison in the ground game, the Vikings should hit a decent point total. 

Seattle will likely be responsible for the bulk of the points since Wilson has thrown for 1,285 yards and 16 touchdowns. 

If the Seahawks produce a high total again, all the over would need is 20-25 points out of the Vikings, which is very doable against Seattle's defense.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference