NFL Week 5 Picks: Game Props, Over/Under Lines and Odds Predictions

The first quarter of the 2020 NFL season is over, and while Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got off to a rocky Week 1 start, they enter the second quarter at 3-1 and in first place in the NFC South.

The Chicago Bears are also 3-1, though their turbulence has come in the past two weeks. Starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky was benched in Week 3 and replaced by offseason acquisition Nick Foles. While Foles delivered a comeback victory that game, he lost his first start in Week 4 while leading the offense to just 11 points.

While the Bucs and Bears appear to be on different trajectories, the two will meet on Thursday night in the Week 5 opener. Here, you'll find a look at some of the more intriguing prop bets for that game. First, though, let's run down the latest lines and over/unders from DraftKings Sportsbook and some updated score predictions.

NFL Week 5 Lines, Over/Unders and Predictions

Thursday, October 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5, 44) at Chicago Bears: 27-20 Tampa Bay

Sunday, October 11

Cincinnati Bengals (+13.5, 51) at Baltimore Ravens: 38-27 Baltimore

Buffalo Bills (n/a) at Tennessee Titans: 34-27 Buffalo

Las Vegas Raiders (+12, 56.5) at Kansas City Chiefs: 38-24 Kansas City

Philadelphia Eagles (+7, 43.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers: 28-24 Pittsburgh

Arizona Cardinals (-7, 47) at New York Jets: 30-20 Arizona

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, 45.5) at Washington Football Team: 24-17 Los Angeles

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6, 54) at Houston Texans: 26-23 Houston

Carolina Panthers (+2, 53.5) at Atlanta Falcons: 31-27 Atlanta

Miami Dolphins (n/a) at San Francisco 49ers: 24-22 San Francisco

New York Giants (+10, 54) at Dallas Cowboys: 35-22 Dallas

Indianapolis Colts (-2, 47) at Cleveland Browns: 22-21 Cleveland

Denver Broncos (n/a) at New England Patriots: 17-14 New England

Minnesota Vikings (+7, 57.5) at Seattle Seahawks: 36-31 Seattle

Monday, October 12

Los Angeles Chargers (+8, 51.5) at New Orleans Saints: 26-24 New Orleans

David Montgomery UNDER 49.5 Rushing Yards

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

When it comes to rushing-yard over/unders, 50 yards is a low mark to reach. This is especially true when a player is the lead back by a large margin—as David Montgomery is after Tarik Cohen's placement on injured reserve.

However, there are two factors working against Montgomery here. The first is that the Bears seem content to lean more heavily on the pass than on Montgomery as a ball-carrier. He had just 10 rushing attempts in Week 4 and 14 carries the week before that. He failed to reach 49 yards in either contest.

The other factor is that opposing teams have struggled to run the ball on Tampa this season. The Buccaneers have surrendered an average of just 64 rushing yards per game to opposing teams, and only Christian McCaffrey has reached the 50-yard mark among players. He had 59 rushing yards in Week 2.

Opposing players have averaged just 2.7 yards per carry against the Buccaneers. At that rate, Montgomery would have to see 19 carries to reach 50 yards. While it's not impossible to think Montgomery will get that sort of workload, it feels far more likely that Chicago will lean on Foles and the passing game.

Tom Brady OVER 0.5 Touchdown Passes

While the Bears have been inconsistent offensively, they've been relatively solid on the other side of the ball. Chicago ranks ninth against the pass, eighth in total defense and seventh in points allowed. It has also surrendered an NFL-low three passing touchdowns.

Therefore, it's not a shock to see Tom Brady's over/under set at half a touchdown—essentially, it's whether he throws a touchdown or not. In addition to Chicago's defense, the under is helped by the recent loss of tight end O.J. Howard. He's done for the season with a torn Achilles.

"It's a tough injury," Brady said, per ESPN.

Still, it's hard to see Brady not throwing a single score in this one. The six-time champion has thrown at least one touchdown pass in each game this season and has 11 in total to go with just two interceptions.

And while the loss of Howard certainly does hurt, Tampa still has Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski at tight end, plus a capable pass-catching back in Ronald Jones II (12 receptions).

Even with wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller on the injury report, Brady should have enough red-zone targets to toss one touchdown on Thursday.

Darnell Mooney OVER 36.5 Passing Yards

As previously stated, the Bears are likely to rely on Foles and the passing game against Tampa's 19th ranked pass defense. This should mean good things for rookie Chicago receiver Darnell Mooney.

The fifth-round pick out of Tulane flashed during his first three games, but he became a popular target in Foles' first start last week. Chicago's new starter targeted Mooney nine times, according to Pro Football Reference, completing five passes for 52 yards.

It's won't be a shock to see Mooney approach double-digit targets again in this one, especially if the Bears struggle to move the ball on the ground.

If he follows a similar production pattern to what he's produced thus far, Mooney should top the 37-yard mark. He's reached 36 yards in three of four outings this year and has averaged 11.2 yards per reception. At this rate, he'll only need four catches to hit the over.

Last week, four different Los Angeles Chargers receivers topped 37 receiving yards against the Buccaneers.