NFL Picks Week 4: Expert Predictions, Odds Guide and Over/Under Lines

The Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams appear to have the easiest matchups in Week 4. 

The Ravens and Rams are both double-digit favorites on the spread, and they are viewed by most experts as the teams with the smallest chance to lose Sunday. 

Although they have the largest point spreads of the week, the games involving the Ravens and Rams are in the middle of the pack when it comes to Week 4 over/under lines. 

Eight of the 15 games scheduled to take place over the next four days have totals set above 50.

The Dallas Cowboys are expected to be involved in another high-scoring affair Sunday with the Cleveland Browns, but the projected total of 56 may be too high for both squads to achieve.  

The Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons are projected to score a bit more Monday night, as that matchup has the highest over/under of 56.5. 

Based off the way their respective offenses are playing, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan could go back and forth at times in what could potentially be the weekend's highest-scoring affair. 

NFL Week 4 Schedule

All Times ET; odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Predictions against the spread in bold.

Thursday, October 1

Denver at New York Jets (-1) (8:20 p.m., NFL Network) (Over/Under: 41)

Sunday, October 4

Baltimore (-13) at Washington (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 45.5)

Indianapolis (-2.5) at Chicago (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 43)

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-3) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 49)

Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay (-7.5) (1 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 43.5)

Arizona (-3.5) at Carolina (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 51.5)

Cleveland at Dallas (-4.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 56)

Minnesota at Houston (-4.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 54.5)

New Orleans (-4) at Detroit (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 54)

Seattle (-6.5) at Miami (1 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 53)

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-13) (4:05 p.m., Fox) (O/U: 48)

New England at Kansas City (-6.5) (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 53)

Buffalo (-3) at Las Vegas (4:25 p.m., CBS) (O/U: 52.5)

Philadelphia at San Francisco (-6) (8:20 p.m., NBC) (O/U: 46)

Monday, October 5

Atlanta at Green Bay (-7.5) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) (O/U: 56.5)

Expert Predictions

According to NFL Pick Watch, the Ravens and Rams have been projected to win their respective matchups by 100 percent of the experts who have submitted picks as of Thursday morning.

The Seattle Seahawks are the only other unanimous favorite in Week 4 for their trip to Hard Rock Stadium against the Miami Dolphins. 

The most contested predictions are for the Thursday night game between the Denver Broncos and New York Jets. 

Fifty-six percent of the experts believe the Broncos will go into MetLife Stadium on short rest and defeat the Jets with Brett Rypien at quarterback. Rypien is Denver's third different starter in four weeks. 

At the moment, Indianapolis is the only other team favored to win with less than 70 percent of the predictions in its favor. Sixty-five percent experts believe the Colts will defeat the Chicago Bears. 

Over/Under Predictions

Cleveland at Dallas (Under 56)

Taking the under for Sunday's game at AT&T Stadium has more to do with the ineffectiveness of the Cleveland offense than it does with Dallas' overall production.

Dallas' three games featured an average of 61.6 points, but that total is inflated by two results against Atlanta and Seattle. 

Cleveland has put up back-to-back 30-point performances, but they occurred against two of the weakest teams in the league, Cincinnati and Washington. 

The Cowboys' defensive advantage could come defending the pass against Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Dallas allowed 11 receptions and 70 receiving yards to opposing running backs. Both totals rank among the five best numbers in those categories. Chubb and Hunt combined for 11 receptions, and Hunt has scored twice through the air. 

If the Cowboys take away that aspect of the Browns offense, they could force the visitors out of a rhythm and into long-yardage situations. 

Cleveland went 5-of-14 on third-down conversions in its Week 3 win over Washington, and Baker Mayfield has not thrown for 300 yards in a road game since Week 4 of 2019 in Baltimore. 

If Dallas frustrates Cleveland on third down and forces Mayfield into uncomfortable situations, it could earn some key defensive stops throughout the game that limit the Browns' point total, and in turn, hurt the potential of the over hitting.

Atlanta at Green Bay (Over 56.5)

Green Bay scored 122 points in its first three games. Atlanta conceded 108 points in defeats to Seattle, Dallas and Chicago.

Those totals suggest a large chunk of points will occur in the Week 4 finale at Lambeau Field. 

Rodgers could take advantage of an Atlanta secondary that was one Seattle passing yard away from giving up three straight 300-yard passing performances to open the season. 

Three different Green Bay wide receivers have more than 160 yards, and the Packers did not appear to be affected by Davante Adams' absence in Week 3 at New Orleans. 

Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling stepped into larger roles, and Rodgers found more comfort in his tight ends. Three wide receivers and two tight ends have caught touchdown passes from Rodgers, and all but one of them has made multiple trips to the end zone.

On top of that production, Aaron Jones has run for 303 yards and four scores against Minnesota, Detroit and New Orleans. 

The Falcons were gashed for at least 125 rushing yards by the Cowboys and Bears in the last two weeks. 

Atlanta's offense may not be able to go head-to-head for four quarters with Green Bay, but there could be stretches in which Ryan answers Rodgers with scoring plays of his own. 

Green Bay's defense allowed New Orleans and Minnesota to put up 30-point performances, and it may have a hard time containing Calvin Ridley, who has caught 21 of his 35 targets for 349 yards and four touchdowns. 

If Ridley's production remains high and the Falcons receive support in the passing game from Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst, they should help the over hit in fairly comfortable fashion.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.