Is a Yankees-Dodgers World Series Matchup Still Worth Dreaming About?

At the outset of the 2020 MLB season, a World Series matchup between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers was the most compelling and perhaps most likely endpoint.

The first point? Arguably still true.

The second? Less so, even though both the Yankees (32-23) and Dodgers (39-16) have already punched their tickets to the playoffs.

Perhaps a Yankees-Dodgers World Series isn't what most baseball fans want to see, but the number of fans rooting for either team is far from insignificant. After all, these clubs do play in the country's two largest media markets and routinely drew fans by the millions in the pre-pandemic days.

The Yankees and Dodgers have also routinely ranked at or near the top of MLB in payroll. So it goes for this year's shortened 60-game season, wherein they're the only clubs whose payrolls top $100 million.

That kind of money naturally buys plenty of star power, and these two clubs' collections include everything from decorated aces (Clayton Kershaw and Gerrit Cole) to ginormous sluggers (Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge) to two MVPs (Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger).

History is yet another thing that a potential Yankees-Dodgers showdown in the Fall Classic has going for it. Though the most recent meeting between the two was back in 1981, the two franchises have clashed in the World Series 11 times.

For these reasons, a Yankees-Dodgers World Series was worth dreaming of when teams across MLB were shaking off their rust and finally getting ready for the season back in July.

There was also the likelihood that both clubs would be very, very good.

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Both won over 100 games in 2019, mostly on the strength of slugger-filled offenses that hit 585 total home runs. Both clubs also made huge splashes—Cole for the Yankees, Betts for the Dodgers—in the offseason, thereby seemingly assuring that they would be even greater threats in 2020.

That's why we settled on the Yankees and Dodgers to represent the American League and National League, respectively, in the World Series when we did our season preview. There was just something about the idea that seemed so...inevitable.

Then things started to change, beginning with the very nature of the playoffs.

At the 11th hour before the season was set to begin on July 23, MLB announced an agreement with the MLB Players Association to expand the playoff field from 10 to 16 teams. One consequence of that was supposed superteams like the Yankees and Dodgers automatically having longer World Series odds.

Under previous rules, both would have stood a good chance of winning their divisions and going right to the best-of-five Division Series round. Under the new rules, they and every other playoff qualifier would go to a best-of-three series in the Wild Card Round. In other words, the promise of a leg up went poof.

As the season got underway, we've also learned that the Dodgers aren't alone after all and that the Yankees are decidedly beatable.

According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers had a 34 percent chance of making it to the World Series as of July 21. That fit with the general assumption that the National League power structure featured the Dodgers on top, then lots of space, and then everyone else.

Now we know that the Dodgers have at least one legitimate challenger: the San Diego Padres.

Though the Padres didn't enter this season as a World Series favorite, they did have a sort of squint-and-you'll-see-it upside. If Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado anchored their lineup while they got strong contributions from other incumbents plus a few surprises, they might just take off.

This is more or less what's happened as the Padres have racked up a 34-21 record. By way of a massive haul ahead of the August 31 trade deadline, they're also stronger now than they were on Opening Day.

Derrick Tuskan/Associated Press

The World Series odds in the National League have shifted accordingly. The Dodgers are still a heavy favorite with a 28 percent chance, but the Padres' chances have more than tripled from roughly 6 percent to 19 percent between July 21 and now.

The Yankees, meanwhile, have found themselves beset by even greater peril in the American League.

Albeit not to the same degree as last season, they've once again had trouble with the injury bug in 2020. Their pitching staff has lost aces Luis Severino (Tommy John surgery) and James Paxton (strained flexor tendon), while their bullpen is without underrated setup man Tommy Kahnle (TJ surgery).

While both are healthy now, Judge and Stanton have also spent time on the injured list. This is after the two combined to play in only 120 games last season, so the Yankees must cross their fingers and hope both can remain unscathed between now and the end of October.

Contrary to the Dodgers, the Yankees also have to reckon with the reality that the 2020 season has rendered them less of a superteam and more of, well, just another team.

Steven Senne/Associated Press

They begin Wednesday with only the fifth-best record in the American League after the Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins. If that isn't enough to believe those four teams could handle the Yankees in October, there's also how New York has distributed its wins.

Playing entirely against AL East and NL East teams, the Yankees have handled losing clubs to the tune of a 21-8 record. However, they're 11-15 against teams with a .500 or better record. Included in that is an abysmal 2-8 performance against the AL East-leading Rays.

The Yankees' injuries haven't helped. Otherwise, a .683 OPS against the Rays could be seen as proof that their otherwise elite offense is vulnerable against good pitching. They also have depth questions on the mound, particularly in a bullpen that hasn't dominated like it did between 2017 and 2019.

One bright side for the Yankees is that the Houston Astros have fallen apart in 2020. After starting at 26 percent on July 21, their World Series chances have been cut in half to about 13 percent.

Still another is that the Yankees' own chances haven't budged that much despite their difficulties. They started at nearly 19 percent on July 21, and they've only slipped to around 17 percent.

But whereas the Yankees' World Series odds made them one of the clear favorites in July, they're now just another face in the crowd in the American League. The aforementioned four teams and even the Astros all boast at least an 11 percent chance of claiming the AL pennant.

A possible Yankees-Dodgers World Series still carries plenty of intrigue and still has a decent chance of coming to fruition. Even in their diminished state, both clubs' odds of making it to the Fall Classic are the highest in their respective leagues.

Yet the likelihood of these titans clashing in the World Series has nonetheless entered "don't hold your breath" territory. Even in its shortened state, this season has proved to be yet another in a long line of case studies for why the games are played on the field, not on paper.

In other words, baseball remains unpredictable.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.