NFL Picks Week 1: Tips and Predictions for Prop Bets, Over/Under Lines and Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs are set to kick off their title defense and the 2020 NFL season on Thursday when they host the Houston Texans.

The game will be the first of many quality opening-week matchups, including the first Tom Brady and Drew Brees duel with the former as quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Here, we'll run down all 16 matchups for the week, along with the latest lines and over/unders. You'll find scoring predictions for each game and a deeper look at some of the early Week 1 props.

NFL Week 1 Lines and Picks

Thursday, September 10

Houston Texans (+9, 54.5) at Kansas City Chiefs: 31-24 Kansas City

Sunday, September 13

Cleveland Browns (+8, 48.5) at Baltimore Ravens: 24-20 Baltimore

Philadelphia Eagles (-6, 43) at Washington Football Team: 20-16 Philadelphia

Indianapolis Colts (-8, 45) at Jacksonville Jaguars: 30-17 Indianapolis

New York Jets (+6.5, 39.5) at Buffalo Bills: 28-20 Buffalo

Miami Dolphins (+6.5, 43) at New England Patriots: 23-16 New England

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 49) at Atlanta Falcons: 26-24 Atlanta

Chicago Bears (+3, 44.5) at Detroit Lions: 20-16 Detroit

Green Bay Packers (+2.5, 46) at Minnesota Vikings: 23-21 Minnesota

Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5, 47.5) at Carolina Panthers: 21-20 Carolina

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 43) at Cincinnati Bengals: 30-28 Los Angeles

Arizona Cardinals (+7, 47.5) at San Francisco 49ers: 28-26 San Francisco

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 49) at New Orleans Saints: 27-24 New Orleans

Dallas Cowboys (-3, 52) at Los Angeles Rams: 30-17 Dallas

Monday, September 14

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 47.5) at New York Giants: 20-16 Pittsburgh

Tennessee Titans (even, 41) at Denver Broncos: 26-24 Tennessee

Chiefs-Texans, Highest Scoring Half

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs got off to painfully slow starts in each of their three playoff games earlier this year. While the opener won't have the same weight as a postseason contest, it will be on a national stage, and with that comes some pressure.

Don't be surprised if Kansas City starts slow yet again, thanks in no small part to the lack of a preseason. The absence of live game reps for players is likely to lead to a fair amount of sloppy football early in the regular season.

This is often an issue for teams in a more normal season.

While it's not likely to be a defensive struggle, expect a moderate amount of scoring in the first half with things ramping up in the second.

Second Half (-109)

Steven Senne/Associated Press

New England Patriots Over/Under 24.5 Points

Though New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick isn't known for doting over his players, he's had plenty of positive things to say about new starting quarterback Cam Newton.

"He works had. He's obviously a very talented player and looking forward to continue to work with him," Belichick told reporters. "We'll just take it day-by-day, but he's given us everything he's had and we've tried to put the team in the best position we can competitively."

While Newton might be the right quarterback to lead the post-Brady Patriots, it doesn't mean New England will get off to a fast start offensively. This is a team that lacks receiving weapons and one likely to take a more ground-it-out approach to winning with the run game and defense.

With Brady under center, New England scored 24 points or fewer in eight of their final nines games last season, including playoffs. As previously mentioned, offensive chemistry will be lacking for many teams early in the season, and that 24-point line isn't one New England is likely to cross in Week 1.

Under 24.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under 22.5 Total Points

While offensive chemistry could be an issue for Brady and the Buccaneers, there are simply too many weapons on the roster for Tampa to fall short of 23 points. In the passing game alone, the Bucs have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski.

On the ground, Tampa can lean on the likes of Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones II and LeSean McCoy in what will likely be a committee approach.

Tampa averaged 28.6 points per game in 2019, and it's hard to believe it will suffer a dramatic dip with Brady under center instead of Jameis Winston. Though the 43-year-old may be more of a game-manager than a gunslinger like his predecessor, he also isn't likely to average 1.8 interceptions per game.

And while New Orleans will provide a tough first test for Brady and Co., the team's 20th-ranked pass defense isn't exactly elite. Expect the Saints to win but the Buccaneers to scrape by that 23-point line.

Over 22.5

*All odds, lines and props from DraftKings Sportsbook.