B/R Staff Fantasy Roundtable: Tips for the Final Big Weekend of Draft Season
The big day is almost here. In just one week, the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs will kick off the 2020 NFL season—and with it another season of fantasy football.
Many fantasy managers have already drafted their teams. But the really smart ones waited until the final weekend to assemble their teams. Waited to see where injuries might strike (apparently, Philadelphia—11 times). Waited to see what late player movement would shake up the fantasy landscape.
A moment of silence for any fantasy value Ronald Jones II might have had.
Of course, waiting until the last minute means that for those drafters many questions remain unanswered. Which late-round picks stand out as the best potential values? Which early-round wide receiver has the best chance of disappointing those who draft him? And who is the best bet to be fantasy football's most valuable player in 2020?
The NFL writers at Bleacher Report have gathered one last time to answer those questions and more, with the final fantasy roundtable of draft season in 2020.
Average draft positions courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator. Unless otherwise noted, fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday.
Which Top-10 Fantasy WR Will Be the Biggest Disappointment in 2020?
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Gary Davenport, NFL Analyst
I'll take a different player from the one my colleagues are about to name, if only to be a contrarian.
As weird as it sounds to say this about a guy who has never had fewer than 1,000 receiving yards in a season, Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It's a combination of factors. The emergence of Chris Godwin. The arrival of Rob Gronkowski, who could siphon some red-zone looks. A new quarterback in Tom Brady who isn't going to push the ball vertically like Jameis Winston did.
Add it all together, and this is the year Evans' streak comes to an end—albeit barely.
Brad Gagnon, NFL Analyst
DeAndre Hopkins is joining a deeper receiver corps in Arizona, and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray might need time to develop chemistry with him following a COVID-19-impacted offseason. I wouldn't be surprised if his numbers took a dive.
Matt Miller, NFL Draft Lead Writer
DeAndre Hopkins; I love Nuk. LOVE HIM. But this offense has a lot more weapons than he's used to, and because of that I expect we see his target share drop a little. This is still a top-five wide receiver in the NFL, but for fantasy purposes I'd wait on Hopkins.
Brent Sobleski, NFL Analyst
The Arizona Cardinals hoodwinked the Houston Texans when they acquired four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins in a trade for running back David Johnson. The Cardinals offense should be explosive, but Hopkins' target share will almost certainly decrease compared to what he grew accustomed to as Houston's WR1.
With Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk on the roster, quarterback Kyler Murray can spread the ball around to exploit defenses instead of force-feeding a particular option.
Who Is Your Favorite Fantasy Value Pick in 2020?
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Davenport
Broken record time! Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions all day, every day.
Yes, Stafford missed half of last season with a back injury. But there's no indication that he's anything but healthy in 2020, and that was the first time Stafford missed a game since 2011.
When Stafford got hurt, he was on pace for almost 5,000 passing yards, 38 touchdown passes and a top-five fantasy finish. That's the upside he presents to fantasy managers—in the double-digit rounds.
Gagnon
Houston Texans running back David Johnson, just because you know damn well that head coach Bill O'Brien will play the living heck out of him following his controversial decision to acquire him in exchange for DeAndre Hopkins.
Miller
I've been routinely finding Tom Brady available later than Round 10 in a 12-team league, and that's incredible value. This is not Josh McDaniels' offense, and Brady, with so many weapons in Tampa, is set for a statistically prolific year.
Sobleski
Everyone can blast the Green Bay Packers for not signing or drafting a wide receiver of consequence this offseason. With that said, the team must see something in its current crop of targets, specifically Allen Lazard.
Lazard will likely serve as Aaron Rodgers' WR2 after a strong finish to the 2019 campaign when the 24-year-old developed a rapport with his quarterback.
Who Is the One Player You Want No Part of in Fantasy Leagues This Year?
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Davenport
Because I haven't gotten enough grief about this on social media yet—Clyde Edwards-Helaire of the Kansas City Chiefs.
It's no knock on the rookie running back. He's immensely talented and has a skill set that appears to suit the Chiefs well.
But Kansas City ranked outside the top 25 in both rushing attempts and rushing yards last year. The Chiefs aren't going to suddenly morph into the Tennessee Titans. And talented though he may be, Edwards-Helaire's next NFL carry will be his first.
Could he have an Offensive Rookie of the Year season in 2020? Sure. Is he being overdrafted in fantasy leagues? Yep.
Gagnon
Atlanta Falcons running back Todd Gurley. I can't believe he's being drafted as high as Round 2. You just can't trust that knee.
Miller
Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield. It's not personal, but my most competitive league docks points for interceptions and Mayfield's inconsistency is not something I want to bet on.
Sobleski
While Bills Mafia will defend Josh Allen with all of its social media might, Allen is a terrible fantasy quarterback.
His big arm and athleticism might fit Buffalo's approach to the game, but even if the young quarterback improves over last year's statistically inept performance (didn't finish top 20 in any of the major passing categories), he'd still be a mediocre fantasy option (and that's me being nice).
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Which QB Drafted Outside the Top 15 Has the Best Chance of Cracking the Top 10?
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Davenport
There are a few candidates here, which speaks to the depth available to fantasy managers at the quarterback position.
Take advantage of it.
But after the Jaguars cut bait on Leonard Fournette, I'm going to go with Gardner Minshew II in Jacksonville. Minshew might not be the future under center in Duuuuuval County, and it's going to be an ugly year for the team.
But that ugly year means lots of playing catch-up—and garbage-time fantasy numbers.
Last I checked, those count the same as all the rest.
I love the smell of garbage in the morning. It smells like victory.
Gagnon
Drew Lock of the Denver Broncos. His trajectory is aiming that way based on last year's production, he's likely to get way more opportunities to air it out in that new offense, and he has way more weapons this year as well.
Miller
Drew Lock. The Broncos loaded up the offense with weapons, and Lock has a chance to put up big numbers; especially in a division that looks poised to break out offensively. Denver will be in some shootouts, and that's good for Lock.
Sobleski
So much of the blame in Cleveland last year was placed on Baker Mayfield's shoulders when so many other things contributed to the Browns' downfall.
Yes, he needs to be better. At the same time, former Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens was inept in his duties, which included being the offensive play-caller. The Browns' star receivers dealt with injuries throughout the campaign. And Cleveland featured the league's worst pair of starting offensive tackles.
Mayfield recommitted himself this offseason. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry are healthy. The Browns front office invested heavily in the tackle position. Most importantly, new head coach Kevin Stefanski brings an offensive scheme best suited to the team's available talent.
Will Cam Newton Return to Fantasy Relevance with the New England Patriots?
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Davenport
Yes, with a caveat.
Newton's days of being a dominant force are over—both in NFL and fantasy terms. Even if you believe in his considerable talent when healthy, durability has become a major question mark with the 2015 NFL MVP.
With that said, there's no reason to think that Newton's ability as a rusher can't propel him into the top 10 at his position—especially when you consider that no coaching staff in the league is better than New England at crafting a scheme around the talent on the roster.
Newton is a decent choice as a high-end QB2 or platoon option, although his rising ADP has taken some of the fun out of drafting him.
Gagnon
No. It's possible, but I don't think his body has much left and he isn't particularly well-supported. There are too many question marks, but you never know when it comes to New England.
Miller
I don't see it. I want to see it, but I can't imagine Newton having more success than Tom Brady had with a similar cast of characters.
Sobleski
The question about Newton has never been about ability. Is he healthy after two consecutive season-ending injuries? So far, everything out of New England is positive, and the former MVP seems to be fitting in well with the Patriots' culture.
If Newton remains healthy, it's hard to envision Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick not maximizing Newton's abilities.
Which RB Being Drafted Outside the Top 25 Has the Best Chance of a Top-10 2020?
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Davenport
There aren't any sure bets at running back coming off the board outside the top 25 at the position. There is, however, a couple of rookies with considerable fantasy upside.
Of them, my money is on J.K. Dobbins of the Baltimore Ravens.
Partly, it's a matter of the talent that saw Dobbins gain over 2,000 rushing yards in 2019 and earn the moniker of a "faster Ray Rice." Partly, it's the matter of landing in a Baltimore offense that just set an NFL record for the most rushing yards by a team in a season.
Yes, Mark Ingram II is still in town. But if Dobbins is half the talent so many believe he is, it's just a matter of time until he becomes Baltimore's lead back.
Once he does, look out.
Gagnon
D'Andre Swift is getting a lot of the attention in the Detroit backfield, and for good reason considering his draft status and his impressive numbers and tape at Georgia. But Swift might be playing catch-up early, and it wouldn't be shocking if Kerryon Johnson took the reins and left him in the dust for much if not all of the season.
Don't forget that the 2018 second-round pick often looked like a star when healthy as a rookie who averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Johnson is worth a flier well before his 95.1 ADP.
Miller
Now that Leonard Fournette is gone, I'm all over Chris Thompson in Jacksonville. He has familiarity with Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, and his pass-catching skills are made for a PPR league.
Sobleski
The Baltimore Ravens already feature a historic rushing attack, but the unit can get even better with second-round rookie J.K. Dobbins added to the mix.
Sure, quarterback Lamar Jackson is the focal point of the system and veteran back Mark Ingram II is a hammer, but Dobbins provides the team with another slashing option who, unlike Ingram, is also a constant home run threat. He'll fit in nicely and might even emerge as the lead back at some point this fall.
Which Late-Round Pick Has the Best Odds of Being a League-Winner?
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Davenport
It's back to that excellent depth at the quarterback position—and another veteran who missed a big chunk of the 2019 season with an injury.
Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsburgh Steelers is 38 years old and coming off a major injury to his throwing elbow. But reports have indicated that elbow is 100 percent, and if that's the case Big Ben could be the steal of the draft at his position.
Two years ago, Roethlisberger led the league with 5,129 passing yards and finished second in fantasy points among signal-callers.
That's a lot of upside in Round 12.
Gagnon
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. Just because it's possible he's simply that good based on his production last year at LSU. With that receiving corps, he could seriously blow up right away.
Miller
Last year my late-round lottery ticket was Ryan Tannehill (it's a deep league, OK) and he carried me to a title. This year my late-round hero is hopefully Zack Moss. The Bills were already concerned enough with Devin Singletary to use a draft choice on Moss, and after falling in love with his game tape at Utah, I have the rookie back as one of my favorites.
Sobleski
T.Y. Hilton is great. Parris Campbell's speed is tantalizing. But new Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers likes to target big receivers with large catch radiuses.
As Pro Football Focus noted, every wide receiver who eclipsed 1,000 yards with Rivers lead the offense stood 6'2" or taller. Michael Pittman Jr. is 6'4". The second-round pick could immediately take the league by storm as its best rookie receiving threat.
Which RB in Washington Will Lead the Team in PPR Fantasy Points at the Position?
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Davenport
My money is on the old warhorse.
Peterson isn't close to being the dominant running back he once was. Rookie Antonio Gibson is certainly more explosive. Second-year pro Bryce Love topped 2,000 rushing yards in 2017 while at Stanford.
But Peterson averaged a respectable 4.3 yards per carry in 2019 and topped 1,000 rushing yards with Washington two years ago.
Gagnon
I'll roll the dice on Antonio Gibson. You never know when Adrian Peterson will fall off a cliff, and I don't think Bryce Love is on the same level.
Miller
Call me old school, but I'm going with Adrian Peterson.
Sobleski
This is somewhat of a tricky question because Adrian Peterson should be the overwhelming favorite to remain Washington's lead back.
However, Antonio Gibson's value derives from his versatility. He's as much a wide receiver as he is a running back, and Washington jumped all over the talented weapon near the top of April's third round. Ron Rivera and Scott Turner certainly knew how to use Christian McCaffrey in the passing game. They'll have a plan for Gibson, too.
Which Late-Round TE Has the Best Odds of Emerging as a Viable Weekly Starter?
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Davenport
For argument's sake, we'll go with tight ends being taken in the 13th round or later. Using that as a benchmark, Mike Gesicki of the Miami Dolphins is an easy call for me here.
There are a few reasons to like the third-year pro in 2020. Gesicki came on down the stretch last year—from Week 12 on Gesicki ranked sixth in PPR fantasy points per game among tight ends. Over that span, he outscored Mark Andrews of the Baltimore Ravens and Darren Waller of the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Dolphins need a secondary receiver to step up opposite DeVante Parker—and Gesicki is as good a bet as anyone on that roster.
Gagnon
O.J. Howard of the Buccaneers. We know he has the talent and Tom Brady might be perfect for him. I also don't believe Rob Gronkowski has much left in him.
Miller
I'm not sure how late Blake Jarwin of the Dallas Cowboys is going for others, but he's been undrafted in many of my leagues. He's definitely worth a late grab and stash.
Sobleski
Will Dissly's injury history is frightening. He suffered a torn patellar tendon and Achilles injury in back-to-back seasons. When he was healthy, he was a very good option within the Seattle Seahawks offense.
He's currently healthy and a full participant during training camp. If he stays on the field, he can be a significant contributor to your fantasy team.
What's the Most Important Strategy Tip You Can Offer Fantasy Managers in 2020?
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Davenport
Stay active. Always.
The draft is a big part of having a successful fantasy season. But it's hardly the only part.
There are going to be players on your roster who don't perform up to expectations. Guys are going to get hurt. And in this strangest of seasons, the possibility of a player landing on the COVID-19 list looms over everything.
Work the waiver wire. Attempt to swing a trade or three. Roster stagnation is death in fantasy football.
Leagues aren't won on draft day. They are won by the fantasy managers who put the most effort into making their teams better throughout the season.
Gagnon
Shoot for potential game-changers in the middle or late rounds. You can afford a few misses down there, and one home run could change everything. In other words, boom-or-bust youngsters over aging vets.
Miller
Running backs. Running backs. Running backs. Don't get cute and overdraft quarterbacks or tight ends. Keep it simple.
Sobleski
In a typical one-year fantasy league, don't be beholden to your draft picks or players who flashed one week and quickly fizzle.
The odds aren't in your favor that those individuals will magically improve and give you the return you originally expected. Makes sure to constantly churn through available options and feature the best lineup on a weekly basis with matchups in mind.
Who Will Be Fantasy Football's MVP in 2020?
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Davenport
To me, fantasy football's most valuable player is just that—the player who provides the most value. It's less the guy who scores the most fantasy points and more the one who soars past his draft slot to lead fantasy managers to a championship.
In that respect, Miami Dolphins wide receiver DeVante Parker stands out.
Parker exploded into fantasy prominence last year, catching 72 passes, topping 1,200 receiving yards and finishing inside WR1 territory in 12-team leagues. But despite that big year, Parker is barely being drafted inside the top 30 WRs in 2020.
He's a fantastic draft target for fantasy managers who hit the running back position early this year—a popular strategy given how hard that spot is being hit in the early rounds.
Gagnon
Saquon Barkley. The 23-year-old was hampered by injuries as a sophomore, but he still tore it up with 274 yards from scrimmage in his first two games, and he ultimately averaged 4.6 yards per carry while going over 1,000 rushing yards despite missing three games and being limited in plenty of others. Watch for a bounce back in 2020.
Miller
Christian McCaffrey. Enough said.
Sobleski
Christian McCaffrey is the easy answer here, but things don't always go as planned. A rebuilding year in Carolina could make life difficult for the game's top multipurpose threat. Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals appear to be ascending with quarterback Kyler Murray leading the way.
Now, no one should expect Murray to post Lamar Jackson-like statistics, but he has the potential to post massive numbers in Kliff Kingsbury's offense.
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