Predicting When MLB's Most Anticipated Prospects Will Make Big League Debuts
Sans a minor league season, the only way fans will catch a glimpse of Major League Baseball's top prospects in 2020 is if they're promoted to The Show.
Luckily, that's a realistic possibility for quite a few of them.
After taking a look at the tea leaves, we've conjured predictions for when baseball's most hyped prospects will make it to the majors. Specifically, we addressed the 15 best players from our top 100 prospects who haven't yet made their debuts.
We'll begin with five not-quite-elite talents and then proceed with ETAs for the top 10.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
B/R Rank: 20
In the wake of a 2019 season in which he had a .914 OPS with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases in the high minors, Dylan Carlson was a candidate to open 2020 in the majors. He could get the call as soon as July 29, at which point the Cardinals will have secured an extra year of service time.
Joey Bart, C, San Francisco Giants
B/R Rank: 19
With Buster Posey having opted out, the Giants have an opening for Joey Bart behind the dish. But by all accounts, they don't want to rush his development. Chances are Giants fans will have to wait until 2021 to see him in San Francisco.
Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers
B/R Rank: 18
Though he isn't subject to as much hype as fellow right-hander Casey Mize, Matt Manning is arguably closer to MLB readiness after posting a 2.56 ERA in 24 starts at Double-A in 2019. He could potentially join the Tigers as soon as August.
Spencer Torkelson, 3B, Detroit Tigers
B/R Rank: 16
The Tigers just drafted Spencer Torkelson with the No. 1 pick in the draft in June. He has the goods to be a fast riser, but don't expect him in the majors before 2021.
Royce Lewis, SS, Minnesota Twins
B/R Rank: 15
Royce Lewis had a difficult season in the minors last year, and he's also looking up at All-Star Jorge Polanco on the Twins depth chart. He is, however, a versatile defender who could be called on this year if the Twins have a spot to fill.
Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
2 of 11
B/R Rank:ย 13
He isn't the most highly regarded outfielder in the Seattle Mariners system, but Julio Rodriguez is no slouch.
He's done nothing but hit since beginning his pro career in 2018, tallying a .322 average and .929 OPS in 143 minor league games. He also logged a .397 on-base percentage in the Arizona Fall League last year.
Though Rodriguez has played center field, his modest speed, prodigious power and strong arm point to a future in right field. At the moment, it happens the Mariners have an opening for a regular in that spot.
But as intriguing as the possibility may be, Rodriguez almost certainly won't get the call to the majors this year. He's just 19 years old, and he's only advanced as far as High-A in the minors. There's also the matter of his having fractured his wrist during summer camp.
Rodriguez might be able to force his way to the majors next year, but the year after is more likely.
ETA:ย 2022
Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
3 of 11
B/R Rank:ย 12
If anything, the question here is why Alec Bohm isn't already on the Philadelphia Phillies.
He may only be two years removed from going No. 3 overall in the 2018 draft, but he's progressed well offensively with a .293 average and .842 OPS in the minors. Though he's gotten some looks at first base, MLB.com claims the club is also pleased with his work at third base.
As Bohm himself sees it, he's not with the Phillies right now because of the service time element.
"There's no hard feelings about it," he told reporters. "It is what it is. That's a thing they can do. That's a smart business move. I'm not going to hold any grudge over it or raise a stink about it. It's part of the game. Everybody's gone through it."
Of course, there also isn't a clear opening for the 23-year-old on the Phillies just yet. But as soon as July 29, the Phillies could potentially tab him as a platoon partner for Jay Bruce at designated hitter.
ETA:ย July 29, 2020
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Jarred Kelenic, OF, Seattle Mariners
4 of 11
B/R Rank:ย 11
It might already be time to stop calling it the "Robinson Cano trade" or the "Edwin Diaz trade" in deference to calling it the "Jarred Kelenic trade."
When the Seattle Mariners first acquired Kelenic from the New York Mets in the aforementioned December 2018 blockbuster, he was a well-regarded yet inexperienced outfield prospect. Subsequently, he went off for a .904 OPS, 23 homers and 20 steals in the minors last season.
More recently, Kelenic impressedย during summer camp and has kept it up in intrasquad scrimmages. The five tools that could make him an All-Star center fielder have been on full display.
But similar to the Giants and Bart, the Mariners have been adamant about not wanting to rush Kelenic. He's only 21 years old, after all, and Seattle general manager Jerry Ditpoto is mindful that he "has yet to pile up 100 plate appearances above A-ball."
Unless you can do it until next year, don't hold your breath waiting for Kelenic's major league debut.
ETA: Earlyย 2021
Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles
5 of 11
B/R Rank:ย 10
The last two seasons have been rough on the Baltimore Orioles, but no prospect personifies their bright future like Adley Rutschman.
The O's selected Rutschman at No. 1 overall in 2019. A bout with mononucleosis delayed the beginning of his pro career, but he acquitted himself well at the plate with a .774 OPS in the minors last year.
The consensus is that much greater offensive numbers are in Rutschman's future, yet he isn't a one-tool talent. He also handles pitchers well and has more than enough arm to control the running game.
But while the hype that surrounds the 22-year-old is very real, it's hard to imagine the Orioles put him in The Show while he has all of 37 minor league games on his record. What's more, those games only took him as far as the Single-A level.
Rutschman might be pressed into emergency duty if injuries or the coronavirus chip away at Baltimore's catching depth. Otherwise, his debut is likely a year away.
ETA:ย Mid-2021
Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
6 of 11
B/R Rank:ย 8
Nate Pearson isn't with the Toronto Blue Jays yet, but he's closer to the majors than any other prospect.
While pretty much every brand-name prospect is in his parent club's 60-man player pool, Pearson stands apart by virtue of being a member of the Blue Jays' three-man taxi squad. That means he's traveling with the team and is therefore ready to be added as needed.
Above all, the 23-year-old has his fastball to thank for his proximity to The Show. It's a rare 80-grade tool that routinely touches 100 mph. In 2019, it was largely responsible for the 2.30 ERA he posted in 25 starts in High-A, Double-A and Triple-A.
There isn't much question that Pearson could have opened the season in Toronto's starting rotation. Likewise, there isn't much question that service time is the only reason he didn't.
However, the Jays won't hold Pearson back any longer than they must. Blue Jays manager Charlie Montoyo confirmed on Monday that the fireballer will make his debut on Wednesday against the Washington Nationals.
ETA:ย July 29, 2020
Cristian Pache, OF, Atlanta
7 of 11
B/R Rank:ย 7
Talent-wise, Cristian Pache is ready for the majors.
He's gradually become a better offensive player since beginning his pro career in 2017, peaking with an .802 OPS, 12 homers and eight steals in 130 games at Double-A and Triple-A in 2019.
Yet Pache's bat isn't even his best asset. In parts thanks to his plus marks for speed and arm strength, he's regarded by MLB.com's Jim Callis as the best defensive prospect in baseball.
Physically, however, the 21-year-old literally can't join Atlanta any time soon. Per Atlanta manager Brian Snitker, it's "going to be a little while" before Pache is recovered from the Grade-2 ankle sprain he suffered during summer camp.
Even then, there might not be space for him in an outfield that already has a standout defensive center fielder (Ender Inciarte) and two star sluggers (Ronald Acuna Jr. and Marcell Ozuna). But if there's an opening, Atlanta could call on Pache as a fourth outfielder and pinch-running specialist for the stretch run.
ETA:ย September 2020
Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit Tigers
8 of 11
B/R Rank: 6
If manager Ron Gardenhire had his way, Casey Mize would already be with the Tigers.
"I'd like to have him right now," Gardenhire told reporters during summer camp. He also added of Mize: "I just think he's very poised, he knows what he needs to do and wants to do, and it's fun watching him pitch. He's in control, and he has a great plan on what he needs to do to be successful."
In fairness, Mize has made only 26 starts in the minors since going to the Tigers at No. 1 overall in 2018. He dealt with some shoulder inflammation last season, which resulted in an early shutdown in August.
The 23-year-old is healthy now, however, and there's otherwise little doubt pertaining to his talent. His fastball, slider and especially his splitter are plus pitches, and he commands all three offerings well.
Even if Mize isn't in Detroit as soon as the Tigers have secured an extra year of club control July 29, he should be up shortly thereafter.
ETA:ย August 2020
MacKenzie Gore, LHP, San Diego Padres
9 of 11
B/R Rank:ย 5
After experiencing growing pains in 2018, MacKenzie Gore turned himself into arguably baseball's best pitching prospect in 2019.
He made 20 starts at High-A and Double-A and finished with a 1.69 ERA and 107 more strikeouts than walks in 101 innings. At work there were a fastball, curveball, slider and changeup that all get plus grades, plus sharp command.
Regarding his aspirations, the 21-year-old pulled no punches during summer camp about wanting to be in San Diego's starting rotation: "That's obviously the goal. But I've got a lot of work to do in the next few weeks if I want that to happen."
For now, though, the Padres are set with Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Garrett Richards, Zach Davies and Joey Lucchesi. And given that he's made only five starts at Double-A, Gore isn't exactly pounding on the door.
But similar to Jesus Luzardo with the Oakland Athletics, there would seem to be a strong possibility Gore works out of San Diego's bullpen on the eve of the postseason.
ETA:ย September 2020
Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels
10 of 11
B/R Rank:ย 3
It would be easy to chalk up Jo Adell's absence from the Los Angeles Angels to the service time game. But in fairness, it's not that simple.
The 21-year-old is coming off a 2019 season in which ankle and hamstring injuries limited him to 76 games in the minors. While he dominated with a .944 OPS at Double-A, he was humbled to the tune of a .676 OPS at Triple-A.
Further, the Angels are serious about wanting Adell to improve his play in right field. He's relatively inexperienced at the position, and it showed during summer camp.
But when it comes down to it, Adell is an advanced prospect whose power, speed and hitting acumen point to a future as a perennial All-Star. With a postseason berth within reach, the Angels should want his help as soon as he's reasonably able to give it.
That might not be as soon as July 29. But come August, his debut will be nigh.
ETA:ย August 2020
Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
11 of 11
B/R Rank:ย 1
Wander Franco is the kind of prospect who scarcely seems possible.
He's a switch-hitter with decent speed and well-above-average power potential, yet it's his feel for hitting that has stood out so far in the minors. In 175 games spanning two seasons, he's walked 29 more times than he's struck out while racking up a .336/.405/.523 slash line from rookie ball through High-A.
By the way, he didn't even turn 19 years old until March 1 of this year.
In a normal season, it would be possible to see Franco make like Bryce Harper and Juan Soto and force his way to the majors as a teenager. As it is, the Tampa Bay Rays might find themselves in a position to call on him even in this extremely abnormal season.
But as Rays general manager Erik Neander told reporters in June, the team is "not going to force anything" with Franco. Barring extraordinary circumstances, the wunderkind's debut is probably a year away.
ETA: Lateย 2021
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
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