Every MLB Franchise's Best Option for a 10-Year Contract Right Now
The sports world was rocked on July 6 when Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes signed a record-breaking 10-year, $503 million contract.
While a deal that long is rare in MLB, it's not unheard of.
The 12-year, $365 million extension Mookie Betts recently signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers marked the 14th contract of 10 years or longer.
That led us to the following hypothetical: If every franchise was forced to pick one player to sign to a 10-year contract right now, who would it be?
Players on 30-man rosters and prospects alike were eligible for consideration, and the only players excluded from the conversation were ones already signed through at least the 2024 season. Those players are noted at the beginning of each team's slide.
Each team's spending power was also taken into consideration, particularly with regard to soon-to-be free agents who would command top dollar relative to pre-arbitration players.
Let the debate begin.
Arizona Diamondbacks: OF Alek Thomas
1 of 30Already Signed Through 2024: 2B/OF Ketel Marte, SP Madison Bumgarner
Age: 20
The D-backs selected Alek Thomas in the second round in 2018, and he has emerged as one of the most promising prospects from a deep draft class.
After a strong debut, he continued to impress last season with a .300/.379/.450 line between Single-A and High-A, tallying 40 extra-base hits and 15 steals in 114 games.
"Thomas has an unusually high floor for a high school player, with a strong chance of developing into at least a well-rounded regular at the highest level," according to MLB.com.
That polish makes him a better candidate for an early long-term deal than fellow outfield prospect Kristian Robinson, who has more risk in his long-term profile, albeit with a higher floor.
Atlanta Braves: RHP Mike Soroka
2 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 2B Ozzie Albies, RF Ronald Acuna Jr.
Age: 22
With Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies already signed to long-term deals, the most obvious young building blocks are off the table.
Rising prospects Cristian Pache and Drew Waters are intriguing options given their high ceilings and close proximity to the majors, and slugging third baseman Austin Riley is also a candidate.
However, Mike Soroka has earned his place among the game's best young arms, and he should age well as a pitcher who relies more on command and pitching to contact than premium velocity.
With a 2.68 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 174.2 innings, he finished second in National League Rookie of the Year voting and sixth in NL Cy Young Award balloting last year. His 51.2 percent groundball rate ranked sixth among qualified starters, and that will be the key to his success going forward.
Baltimore Orioles: C Adley Rutschman
3 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: None
Age: 22
All signs point to Adley Rutschman as the future face of the franchise for the rebuilding Orioles.
He was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft after hitting an absurd .411/.575/.751 with 17 home runs and 58 RBI in 57 games during his junior season at Oregon State, tallying twice as many walks (76) as strikeouts (38) along the way.
"He's perhaps the best all-around catching prospect since Joe Mauer was the No. 1 pick back in 2001 and has the same All-Star potential," according to MLB.com
Switch-hitting catchers with advanced hit tools, plus power and Gold Glove-caliber defensive skills do not come along often.
Boston Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers
4 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: SS Xander Bogaerts, SP Chris Sale
Age: 23
How is Rafael Devers still only 23 years old?
The former top prospect hit .311/.361/.555 with 54 doubles, 32 home runs, 114 RBI and 129 runs in a 4.9-WAR season last year to finish 12th in American League MVP voting.
He has enough raw power to turn a few more of those doubles into home runs in the years to come, and after Boston locked up shortstop Xander Bogaerts last April, Devers is an obvious next candidate for a long-term extension.
A move across the diamond to first base is inevitable, but it's his offensive tools that have made him a star.
Chicago Cubs: SS Javier Baez
5 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: IF David Bote, SP Kyle Hendricks
Age: 27
The Cubs have some big decisions to make in the near future with Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber headed for free agency after the 2021 season and Willson Contreras hitting the open market the following offseason.
From that core group of impact position players, Baez is most important to the team's success.
Signing him to a 10-year deal now at the age of 27 would mean paying for some post-prime seasons on the back end, but he's still the best candidate for that type of megadeal.
Aside from his dynamic offensive game, he's also one of the best defensive players in the game, and he brings a spark and intensity to the field every day that is hard to quantify.
Chicago White Sox: 2B Nick Madrigal
6 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 3B Yoan Moncada, SS Tim Anderson CF Luis Robert, LF Eloy Jimenez, RP Aaron Bummer
Age: 23
With rising stars Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada already signed to long-term deals, the White Sox's choice is not an obvious one.
Lucas Giolito is a candidate after a breakout 2019 season, but his injury history, limited track record of success and the fact that he's already 26 years old are all prohibitive factors.
That leaves prospects Andrew Vaughn and Nick Madrigal as the best options for a lengthy extension.
Both players were drafted as polished college standouts with extremely high floors, but Vaughn might have the higher ceiling as a potential middle-of-the-order slugger.
At the same time, Madrigal is arguably the best bet of any minor leaguer to be an above-average MLB player for the next decade, making him the safer long-term investment.
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Luis Castillo
7 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 1B Joey Votto, 2B Mike Moustakas, 3B Eugenio Suarez, OF Nick Castellanos
Age: 27
After showing flashes during his first two MLB seasons, Luis Castillo broke out last season with a 3.40 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 226 strikeouts in 190.2 innings to earn his first All-Star selection.
Despite the fact that he's already 27 years old, he has thrown just 916 professional innings between the minors and majors, so he doesn't have as much mileage on his arm as some pitchers his age.
The Reds would still pay for some post-prime seasons on the back end of the deal, but locking him up throughout his prime would make the investment worthwhile.
The versatile Nick Senzel and top pitching prospect Nick Lodolo are also candidates, along with Hunter Greene if he can prove he has the same electric stuff he did prior to Tommy John surgery.
Cleveland Indians: RHP Shane Bieber
8 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: None
Age: 25
Shane Bieber was one of the breakout stars of the 2019 season, posting a 3.28 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with an impressive 259 strikeouts in 214.1 innings while tossing three complete games and two shutouts.
That earned him the Opening Day start in 2020, and he racked up 14 strikeouts over six scoreless innings against the Kansas City Royals.
With Corey Kluber gone, Carlos Carrasco in his age-33 season and late bloomer Mike Clevinger already in his age-29 season, Bieber is the future of the Cleveland rotation.
Superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor is also an obvious candidate for a long-term deal, but it doesn't look like it will be the Indians who write that check.
Colorado Rockies: RHP Jon Gray
9 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 3B Nolan Arenado, SP German Marquez
Age: 28
Quality pitching is something that has eluded the Rockies since the franchise's inception in 1993.
Jon Gray is a homegrown standout who has shown the ability to succeed at Coors Field. In fact, he actually pitched better at altitude last year than he did on the road:
- Home: 75.1 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
- Away: 74.2 IP, 4.22 ERA, 1.42 WHIP
Paying him when he's 38 years old might not be the most attractive hypothetical, but if that's what it takes to keep him around long-term, it would be a price worth paying.
Shortstop Trevor Story is a free agent after the 2021 season and will be a candidate for a long-term deal as well, but the organization is loaded with infield talent and pitching needs to be priority No. 1 for the organization if it is going to find sustainable contention.
Detroit Tigers: OF Riley Greene
10 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 1B Miguel Cabrera
Age: 19
Casey Mize and Matt Manning are the top prospects in the Detroit farm system and two of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, while left-hander Tarik Skubal is not far behind.
That said, pitchers will always carry more risk over the course of a long-term deal, and young outfielder Riley Greene offers similar star-caliber upside.
The No. 5 pick in the 2019 draft, Greene is one of the most polished prep hitters to come along in years, giving him a higher floor than most players his age.
"Greene's left-handed swing is as fluid and balanced as it is explosive," according to MLB.com. "His bat speed and path through the zone yield plenty of hard contact, and he already demonstrates an advanced approach. He shows huge raw power in batting practice, especially to the pull side, and should have at least above-average game power, to go along with a plus hitting ability, once developed."
With a 60-grade hit tool and 55-grade power, he looks like a future cornerstone of the Detroit lineup.
Houston Astros: DH Yordan Alvarez
11 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 2B Jose Altuve, 3B Alex Bregman
Age: 23
Between Triple-A and MLB last season, Yordan Alvarez hit 50 home runs with 149 RBI in 622 plate appearances.
He won AL Rookie of the Year honors unanimously with a 173 OPS+ and 27 home runs in 87 games in the majors, and his peripheral numbers—which include stellar exit velocity (94th percentile), hard-hit rate (94th percentile) and barrel rate (98th percentile) figures—suggest he's the real deal.
The front office has some big decisions to make on George Springer (free agent after 2020) and Carlos Correa (free agent after 2021) in the near future, but Alvarez is the best option in the organization for a 10-year deal.
A strong rebound season from Forrest Whitley once MiLB action returns would put him back in the conversation.
Kansas City Royals: SS Bobby Witt Jr.
12 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: None
Age: 20
Brady Singer made a strong first impression in his MLB debut Saturday, and the Royals farm system is loaded with quality pitching talent.
However, there is little debate who profiles as the future face of the franchise.
Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 draft, and the Royals gave him a $7.8 million bonus that was the third-highest in MLB draft history.
He has just 37 pro games under his belt, so the Royals are still dreaming on his potential, but there is plenty of reason for optimism.
"Scouts rave about his makeup and passion for the game as much as his tools, giving him as much chance as anyone to reach his enormous potential," according to MLB.com.
Los Angeles Angels: OF Jo Adell
13 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 3B Anthony Rendon, CF Mike Trout
Age: 21
With Mike Trout already locked up and Anthony Rendon inked to a seven-year contract during the offseason, the two highest-profile players on the Angels roster do not qualify for this conversation.
Outfielder Jo Adell has a chance to join that duo in stardom.
The five-tool talent is a .298/.361/.518 hitter over three minor league seasons since he was picked 10th in the 2017 draft, and he posted an .834 OPS with 37 extra-base hits in 76 games last year.
With 55-grade or better tools across the board, including 65-grade raw power, he will fit well in right field alongside Trout for years to come.
Fellow outfield prospect Brandon Marsh also looks like a long-term impact player.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1B/OF Cody Bellinger
14 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: RF Mookie Betts
Age: 25
Cody Bellinger won NL Rookie of the Year honors in his age-21 season, and two years later he took home the NL MVP Award when he posted a 169 OPS+ with 47 home runs in a 9.1-WAR season.
Aside from his elite offensive numbers, he also made a seamless transition to the outfield last year, tying for second among all outfielders with 23 defensive runs saved while winning Gold Glove honors.
With Mookie Betts signed long-term and Walker Buehler and Corey Seager coming with injury concerns that make a 10-year contract risky, Bellinger is the obvious choice.
Given how difficult it is to find an answer behind the plate, Will Smith is also worth mentioning if he can back up his strong rookie season.
Miami Marlins: OF JJ Bleday
15 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: None
Age: 22
The Marlins are lacking in building blocks at the MLB level, which means one of the team's top prospects is the best option for a long-term extension.
Right-hander Sixto Sanchez is the team's consensus top prospect, but he's had some injuries in the past, and until he proves healthy at the MLB level, a significant investment would come with major risk.
Instead, we'll focus on 2019 first-round pick JJ Bleday, who hit .347/.465/.701 with 27 home runs and 72 RBI in 71 games during his junior season at Vanderbilt.
With a 55-grade hit tool, 60-grade power and an advanced approach at the plate, he should be one of the first prospects from the 2019 draft class to reach the majors.
Milwaukee Brewers: 2B Keston Hiura
16 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: OF Christian Yelich, SP/RP Freddy Peralta
Age: 23
Keston Hiura hit .303/.368/.570 with 23 doubles and 19 home runs in 84 games as a rookie last season, closing out the year hitting cleanup for a contending team.
Questions remain about his defensive game, but he can flat-out rake.
He hit .442/.567/.693 with 33 extra-base hits in 56 games during his junior season at UC Irvine, and he was a .317/.382/.546 hitter in parts of three minor league seasons.
With one of the thinnest farm systems in baseball and superstar outfielder Christian Yelich locked up long-term, Hiura is the obvious choice.
Shutdown reliever Josh Hader is a star, but signing a reliever to a 10-year contract would be uncharted territory, and he's already 26 years old.
Minnesota Twins: OF Trevor Larnach
17 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 3B Josh Donaldson, SS Jorge Polanco, RF Max Kepler
Age: 23
This is no doubt going to be a controversial selection, but hear me out.
Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff took significant steps backward last season. Furthermore, Lewis is firmly blocked at shortstop by Jorge Polanco, and Kirilloff has had a tough time staying healthy since he was picked 15th in 2016.
On the MLB roster, Jose Berrios is a candidate, but he's already 26 years old, and the Twins' modest budget makes paying a pitcher into his late 30s a risky proposition.
That brings us to Trevor Larnach.
The No. 20 pick in the 2018 draft hit .309/.384/.458 with 30 doubles and 13 home runs in the minors last season while reaching Double-A. He's an extremely polished hitter with one of the highest floors of any offensive prospect, which minimizes the risk of signing him to a long-term deal.
New York Mets: 1B Pete Alonso
18 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: SP Jacob deGrom
Age: 25
First baseman Pete Alonso crushed a rookie-record 53 home runs last season, posting a 148 OPS+ and 5.2 WAR for the Mets.
He could improve his 26.4 percent strikeout rate, and he doesn't provide much value beyond his offensive game, but he's the definition of a middle-of-the-order slugger.
With ace Jacob deGrom locked up on a five-year, $137.5 million contract that includes a 2024 club option, Alonso is the clear choice.
High-ceiling shortstop prospect Ronny Mauricio and 18-year-old catcher Francisco Alvarez are two to watch in the lower levels of the farm system.
New York Yankees: SS Gleyber Torres
19 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: OF Giancarlo Stanton, OF Aaron Hicks, SP Gerrit Cole
Age: 23
Gleyber Torres posted a 128 OPS+ with 38 home runs in his age-22 season last year.
Only 11 times in MLB history has a player hit more home runs at the age of 22 or younger, and for a team with a number of high-priced veterans, it would be a welcome change of pace to lock up a young player on the rise.
Slugger Aaron Judge will be a free agent after the 2022 season, but his struggles to stay healthy and the fact that he's already 28 years old makes him a risky long-term target.
Highly-touted teenager Jasson Dominguez is also deserving of a mention, though it's hard to even consider a deal when he has yet to make his pro debut.
Oakland Athletics: 3B Matt Chapman
20 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: None
Age: 27
First baseman Matt Olson is a year younger and to this point a more impactful middle-of-the-order presence, but the impact Matt Chapman makes defensively at third base means he is one of the most valuable players in baseball.
The Athletics chose to let Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada walk in free agency in the early 2000s in favor of a long-term deal with third baseman Eric Chavez, who had a similar two-way profile as Chapman.
Could Oakland make a comparable decision in the 2020s and prioritize Chapman over Olson and shortstop Marcus Semien?
If not for his injury issues over the last several years, left-hander Jesus Luzardo would have been part of this conversation as well.
Philadelphia Phillies: 3B Alec Bohm
21 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: OF Bryce Harper, IF/OF Scott Kingery, SP Zack Wheeler
Age: 23
In his first full professional season after he was picked third in the 2018 draft, Alec Bohm hit .305/.378/.518 with 30 doubles, 21 home runs and 80 RBI in 125 games while reaching Double-A.
There's a good chance he'll make his MLB debut at some point in 2020, taking over as the everyday third baseman after Maikel Franco was non-tendered at the start of the offseason.
"Bohm's combination of approach at the plate, bat speed and strength give him the potential to be a true impact bat in the middle of a lineup," according to MLB.com.
Even if he shifts to first base, his middle-of-the-order run production potential and polished all-around offensive profile make him a great candidate for a long-term deal.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes
22 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: None
Age: 23
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes was among four young players the Pirates approached about extensions during the offseason.
So there's something to the idea of signing him to a long-term deal, despite the fact that he has yet to make his MLB debut.
He hit .265/.336/.415 with 42 extra-base hits and 12 steals in 110 games at Triple-A last year, and he's capable of significantly more at the plate thanks to a 60-grade hit tool.
MLB.com also noted he is "consistently brought up in conversations about the best defensive prospects in the game at any position," meaning that even if he's only an average offensive performer, he will still be an asset.
San Diego Padres: SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
23 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 1B Eric Hosmer, 3B Manny Machado
Age: 21
There were a lot of tough choices to make in this article.
This was not one of them.
Fernando Tatis Jr. broke camp with a spot on the Padres roster last season shortly after his 20th birthday. He went on to hit .317/.379/.590 with 22 home runs and 16 steals en route to an impressive 4.1 WAR in 84 games, and he's just getting started.
All signs point to superstardom.
Others in the San Diego organization, including Chris Paddack, MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino and CJ Abrams, are also attractive options for a long-term deal, but Tatis is the clear answer. He's also one of the few players on this list who very well may sign a 10-year deal in the future.
San Francisco Giants: C Joey Bart
24 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: None
Age: 23
Joey Bart became the heir apparent to Buster Posey behind the plate for the Giants the second he was selected with the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft.
Despite missing time with a fractured hand last year, he still closed out his first full pro season at Double-A, hitting .316/.368/.544 with four home runs and 11 RBI in 22 games following a late-season promotion.
He then went 10-for-30 with four home runs and 10 RBI in 10 games in the Arizona Fall League before getting hit in the hand again and suffering a broken thumb.
He looks like a perennial All-Star and a foundational piece of the rebuild in San Francisco.
Seattle Mariners: OF Jarred Kelenic
25 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 1B Evan White, SP Marco Gonzales
Age: 21
The Mariners have already shown a willingness to extend a player before he makes his MLB debut, inking first baseman Evan White to a six-year, $24 million deal in November after he closed out 2019 at Double-A.
Don't be surprised if that becomes a trend.
Outfielders Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are the headliners of a strong farm system, along with right-hander Logan Gilbert, and all three belong in this conversation.
Between the two outfielders, Kelenic has a more well-rounded game thanks to his speed and defensive value in center field, but locking up both players might not be a bad idea.
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Jack Flaherty
26 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 1B Paul Goldschmidt, SS Paul DeJong
Age: 24
The Cardinals have never been shy about handing out early extensions to homegrown players, with second baseman Kolten Wong, shortstop Paul DeJong, right fielder Stephen Piscotty and right-hander Carlos Martinez among the recent examples.
Jack Flaherty could be next.
After a stellar rookie season in 2018, Flaherty turned in one of the most dominant second-half performances in MLB history last season. He posted a 0.93 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and a .139 opponents' batting average while striking out 130 batters in 106.1 innings over his final 16 starts, announcing himself as one of baseball's rising stars in the process.
Top prospect Dylan Carlson is also an option as he gets set to take over as the starting left fielder on the heels of a breakout 2019 season in the upper levels of the minors.
Tampa Bay Rays: SS Wander Franco
27 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: 2B Brandon Lowe
Age: 19
The Rays reportedly approached right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Austin Meadows about extensions during the offseason, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Both players belong in this conversation, but shortstop prospect Wander Franco is on another level.
He hit .327/.398/.487 with 43 extra-base hits in 495 plate appearances between Single-A and High-A last season, tallying more walks (56) than strikeouts (35). All before his 19th birthday.
"If you were to build a hitter from scratch using all of the physical attributes and skills that have come to define great hitters, he'd probably end up looking something like Franco," according to MLB.com.
Regardless of whether he sticks at shortstop defensively, he has a chance to be a generational talent offensively, and his advanced feel for hitting gives him a less risky long-term profile than most teenage prospects.
If the Rays could sign him to a 10-year, $100 million deal right now, they would likely think long and hard about it.
Texas Rangers: 3B Josh Jung
28 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: RP Jose Leclerc
Age: 22
A three-year starter at Texas Tech who hit .348/.455/.577 during his time on campus, Josh Jung entered the pro ranks as an advanced hitter expected to move quickly through the minors.
He hit .316/.389/.443 with 17 extra-base hits in 44 games after being selected eighth in the 2019 draft, and an early 2022 arrival in the majors is possible, even with no MiLB season this year.
Slugger Joey Gallo is the only viable option on the MLB roster, and after an injury-plagued 2019 season, he still has a lot to prove in terms of health and his approach at the plate before he can be considered for a long-term deal. That risk, coupled with the fact that Gallo is four years older, makes Jung a more appealing choice.
Don't sleep on young center fielder Leody Taveras, who won a surprise spot on the Opening Day roster.
Toronto Blue Jays: SS Bo Bichette
29 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: None
Age: 22
Bo Bichette vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was one of the toughest decisions of this exercise.
Ideally, both players would be prominent fixtures on the Toronto roster for the long haul, along with Cavan Biggio and hard-throwing right-hander Nate Pearson.
But if we're picking just one for a 10-year contract right now, Bichette gets the nod by the slimmest of margins.
He has had more offensive success at the MLB level so far, and he provides far more auxiliary value as a shortstop who also runs well. Guerrero is going to be an offensive force, but his value is almost exclusively tied to his bat.
Washington Nationals: LF Juan Soto
30 of 30
Already Signed Through 2024: SP Stephen Strasburg, SP Patrick Corbin
Age: 21
All due respect to Victor Robles, who has a chance to be a star, but this was an easy decision.
Juan Soto hit .282/.401/.548 with 32 doubles, 34 home runs and 110 RBI during the regular season last year, and then he homered three times in the World Series while turning 21 years old on the day of Game 3.
How many players in MLB history had an advanced enough feel for hitting to draw 100 walks prior to their age-21 season?
- Mel Ott, 1929: 113
- Juan Soto, 2019: 108
- Ted Williams, 1939: 107
- John McGraw, 1893: 101
That's the list.
He's going to be very good for a very long time.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
