B/R's MLB Experts Predict MVP, Cy Young and Every Major 2020 Award
This will be no ordinary MLB season. With the 2020 slate shortened to 60 games, almost anything can happen.
Sure, the best players are the best players. Assuming they remain healthy and on the field, they'll likely produce the best results.
But we've all seen guys with career sub-replacement numbers get ridiculously hot for a month or two, just as we've watched superstars plunge into prolonged slumps.
Undaunted by the vagaries of a small-sample sprint, B/R's trio of MLB experts—Joel Reuter, Zachary D. Rymer and Jacob Shafer—weighed in with their picks for the major MLB awards. That would be Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, the Cy Young Award and MVP in each league.
Every year, these predictions are a crapshoot. This year, that's especially true.
NL Manager of the Year
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Rymer: Dave Roberts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Trying to sort out the likely playoff picture in the National League is a good way to get brain cramps. So I'm going to do my brain a favor and just assume that the NL Manager of the Year will go to the manager of the league's best team. That's the Dodgers, so congrats in advance to Dave Roberts.
Reuter: David Bell, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds look like a lock to improve on last year's .463 winning percentage and are a serious contender in the NL Central and NL wild-card race. They have arguably the best starting rotation in the division and a vastly improved offensive attack following the additions of Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas. The manager of the most improved team in the league is always a leading candidate for this award, especially if the other top candidates come from perennial contenders.
Shafer: Torey Lovullo, Arizona Diamondbacks
The D-backs made some key offseason additions in left-hander Madison Bumgarner and outfielders Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun. They have a solid bullpen behind Archie Bradley and plenty of incumbent talent, including emerging star Ketel Marte. They'll be hard-pressed to catch the Dodgers, but anything can happen in a short season, and they could secure a wild-card spot. If they do, skipper Torey Lovullo may be rewarded.
AL Manager of the Year
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Reuter: Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays won 96 games last season with the lowest payroll in baseball. Credit the front office for doing incredible work within the confines of a tight budget, but manager Kevin Cash also played a significant role in that success thanks to his ability to make the most of a roster filled with veteran castoffs and inexperienced up-and-comers. It'll be fun to see how he utilizes an expanded pitching staff over a full season, and this team is squarely in title contention.
Rymer: Kevin Cash, Tampa Bay Rays
Cash is tasked with mixing and matching all sorts of different players even in a normal year. Given the sheer depth of the Rays roster and the additional importance of each game in an abridged 60-game season, he stands to be rewarded if he keeps it up this year.
Shafer: Rick Renteria, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox would probably be a year or so away from contention in a conventional season. But as we've established, this is not a conventional season. Assuming their veteran offseason additions—Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, Dallas Keuchel etc.—mesh with burgeoning stars such as Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert, the ChiSox could make a surprise playoff run. If they qualify for the dance (admittedly a big "if"), manager Rick Renteria will be a virtual MOY shoo-in.
NL Rookie of the Year
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Reuter: RHP Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller? The guy with the 7.13 ERA in 11 starts last season? Yep. The 24-year-old had a rough debut, but beneath the surface, his 3.19 FIP and 65-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 48 innings—the cutoff for rookie eligibility is 50 innings—looked awfully promising. The Pirates are not going anywhere in 2020, so he'll have a long leash and the chance to emerge as the de facto ace of the staff.
Rymer: 2B Gavin Lux, Los Angeles Dodgers
Lux won't begin the season with the Dodgers, but they won't deny him his spot at second base for long. Once he gets it, he'll be looking to tap into the same magic that led him to a stunning .347/.421/.607 batting line in the high minors last season.
Shafer: C Joey Bart, San Francisco Giants
In 2010, the Giants promoted a guy named Buster Posey and handed him the starting catcher job. He won NL Rookie of the Year honors and San Francisco won the World Series. While the rebuilding Giants almost certainly won't hoist a Commissioner's Trophy in 2020, top prospect Joey Bart could get his shot behind the dish after Posey opted out of the 2020 season. If he does—even if it takes several games because of service-time considerations—Bart might repeat Posey's ROY performance exactly a decade later. It would be a neat bit of symmetry.
AL Rookie of the Year
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Reuter: RHP Nate Pearson, Toronto Blue Jays
Luis Robert is the overwhelming favorite here. But if you'll recall, similarly hyped prospects Eloy Jimenez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both got off to pedestrian starts last year, so it's entirely possible someone else will swoop in and win the award. Flame-throwing Nate Pearson looks like a prime candidate. With a fastball that has touched 104 mph and a wipeout slider, he'll be called on early to join the Toronto rotation if the Blue Jays are serious about making a push. A busy offseason suggests they will be.
Rymer: C Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics
With respect to Robert and his enormous potential, Murphy is a talented two-way catcher who has already teased an All-Star future in the majors. He had an .899 OPS in 20 games with the A's last September, and he even started the AL Wild Card Game.
Shafer: OF Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
Yes, he's the obvious pick. And yes, touted prospects frequently need time to adjust to the big leagues. In a 60-game season, time is a luxury no one will have. But the .328/.376/.624 slash line with 32 homers and 36 stolen bases in 122 games that Robert produced across three MiLB levels last year is something to behold. Feel free to dream huge on this kid, South Side faithful.
NL Cy Young Award
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Reuter: LHP Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks
Robbie Ray already has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in baseball, as evidenced by his 235 strikeouts in 2019 and 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings over the last three seasons. However, he also walked batters at a 4.4 BB/9 clip during that stretch. A recent tweet from Driveline video editor Lance Brozdowski highlighted a mechanical tweak that could lead to improved command. If it does, Ray is capable of rising to the rank of the game's elite.
Rymer: RHP Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
There are pitchers in the National League who can compete with deGrom for the lead in individual statistics such as ERA, innings, strikeouts and especially wins. But since nobody else does everything as well as he does, a third straight Cy Young Award is within his reach.
Shafer: RHP Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals
Flaherty was next-level dominant in his final 15 starts of 2019, during which he posted a 0.91 ERA. Overall, he struck out 231 in 196.1 innings. The St. Louis Cardinals ace appears primed to emerge as one of the game's best pitchers, as well as one of its leading voices.
AL Cy Young Award
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Reuter: RHP Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians
Mike Clevinger missed time early last season with back and ankle injuries, leaving him short of the innings total needed to qualify for inclusion on statistical leaderboards. However, among AL pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched, he ranked third in ERA (2.71), sixth in WHIP (1.06) and fourth in strikeouts per nine innings (12.1). Shane Bieber was heralded as the breakout star in Cleveland, but Clevinger was the best pitcher on that staff and one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when healthy.
Rymer: RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Though Justin Verlander ended up winning the AL Cy Young Award last year, Gerrit Cole had a strong case for it with his 2.50 ERA and 326 strikeouts. If he can apply what he learned in Houston to pinstripes, he'll carry that performance over with little difficulty.
Shafer: RHP Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays
Let's not forget, relievers can and have won Cy Young Awards. It could be more likely to happen again during a truncated campaign in which starters will take 11 or 12 trips to the hill, max. Bullpen pitchers may log fewer innings, but they have an impact on more games. Enter Nick Anderson, who fanned an astounding 110 hitters in 65 frames in 2019 and should be the primary closer for the playoff-contending Rays. It's an out-there pick...but it's going to be an out-there season.
NL MVP
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Reuter: OF Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
Ronald Acuna Jr. finished fifth in NL MVP voting a year ago, and it seems like only a matter of time before he wins the award. The 22-year-old showed he can go on a tear when he hit eight home runs over an eight-game stretch during his rookie season in 2018, and he caught fire again last August with 11 home runs in 28 games. A similar stretch might be all it takes to push him over the top in a shortened season.
Rymer: OF Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Remember how good Betts was in 2018? Well, he wasn't much worse in 2019 even though his rWAR sunk from 10.6 to 6.9. He was still a superior defender and baserunner, and his .406 xwOBA (i.e., his expected production based on walks, strikeouts and contact quality) put him among the league's best hitters. With more of that, he's an MVP again.
Shafer: 3B Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
There's no way Arenado wins the MVP award on a Rockies team that's likely headed for a fourth-place finish at best in the NL West. But if he gets traded to a contender by the Aug. 31 deadline (which we posited he will), he could become a stretch-run savior and finally claim the prize for which he's finished fifth, fourth, third and sixth in the past four seasons, respectively.
AL MVP
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Reuter: 3B Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics
Matt Chapman has racked up 16.6 WAR over the past two seasons, a total that trails only Mike Trout (18.4), Mookie Betts (17.6) and Jacob deGrom (17.4) among all players. He finished sixth in MVP voting last year, slugging 36 home runs while playing his usual all-world defense at third base. Modest improvements in walk rate (+1.5%) and strikeout rate (-1.8%) hint at a still-developing offensive game. The A's look like contenders once again, and his elite two-way ability will finally get the national recognition it deserves.
Rymer: 3B Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Before anyone trashes me for this pick, remember that Bregman led the American League with 9.1 rWAR in 2019. That plus his career-high 1.015 OPS and his 41 home runs all fit patterns of him getting better on an annual basis.
Shafer: 3B Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins
Mike Trout would have been the safe pick, even though he's understandably going to miss time for the upcoming birth of his child. But let's go outside the box and say the 34-year-old Donaldson will turn up the dial in a loaded Twins lineup and win his second AL MVP Award (the first came in 2015 with the Blue Jays). It isn't that far-fetched considering he swatted 37 homers with a .900 OPS for the Braves in 2019. Stranger things have happened...and they assuredly will in 2020.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball Reference.
