Glass Half-Empty Thoughts on Every MLB Team for 2020 Season
As we've already discussed, every team in Major League Baseball has an excuse to think happy thoughts ahead of the long-delayed opening of the 2020 season.
But for every happy thought, there must be a lingering doubt.
We figured it was only fair to turn the tables and offer glass half-empty thoughts for each of MLB's 30 teams. These cover unforeseen problems that this year has brought rebuilders, as well as potential pitfalls and harsh realities for the league's would-be contenders.
We'll go in alphabetical order by city.
Arizona Diamondbacks: They're Good, but Also Nothing Special
1 of 30
2019 Record: 85-77
After winning 85 games and adding Madison Bumgarner, Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun over the winter, the Arizona Diamondbacks might be good enough to make a run at the National League West title this year.
However, the emphasis here is very much on "might."
Truthfully, the D-backs are a long shot to end the Los Angeles Dodgers' seven-year reign as the top team in the NL West. Said Dodgers won 106 games in 2019, and they now have two MVPs at the heart of their lineup in Cody Bellinger and newcomer Mookie Betts.
What's more, the Diamondbacks can't assume they'll be able to nab an NL wild-card spot if they fall short of the Dodgers. With only 60 games to play this year, that figures to be a crowded race with no obvious favorites.
Atlanta: Josh Donaldson's Absence Looms Large
2 of 30
2019 Record: 97-65
Because of opt-outs, illnesses and injuries, Atlanta hasn't had such a great time during MLB's "summer camp" preparation period.
The good news is that the club's roster still largely resembles the one that captured a second straight NL East title in 2019. The further bad news, however, is that the most notable absence could mean the difference between playing in the postseason and watching it from the couch.
When Josh Donaldson walked in free agency, there went 6.0 rWAR from Atlanta's total output in 2019. More specifically, the club lost a .900 OPS, 37 home runs and 15 defensive runs saved at third base.
Instead of replacing Donaldson with a comparable star, Atlanta handed his spot to Johan Camargo. Even if he reverts to his solid form of 2018, he's no Donaldson.
Baltimore Orioles: The Canceled Minor League Season Won't Help Their Rebuild
3 of 30
2019 Record: 54-108
Though Major League Baseball is having—or at least, trying to have—a season, the 2020 Minor League Baseball campaign was officially axed in June.
This is a bummer for everyone, but it's an especially damaging development for rebuilding clubs like the Baltimore Orioles.
As it is, their farm system was in good but not great shape before the cancellation of the MiLB season. We had it ranked as baseball's No. 11 system coming out of the draft, at which point it could only get better if certain prospects raised their stock by playing in actual games.
That's still a possibility for catcher Adley Rutschman and other prospects that Baltimore has included in its 60-man player pool. Trouble is, that's a relatively short list.
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Boston Red Sox: They Can Only Go so Far with That Pitching Staff
4 of 30
2019 Record: 84-78
Even without Mookie Betts, the Boston Red Sox have one of the most interesting and potentially productive lineups in the American League.
But about their pitching staff, there isn't much to say other than "yikes."
The Red Sox were originally slated to have Chris Sale, David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez atop their starting rotation. But Price accompanied Betts to Los Angeles in February, and Sale subsequently underwent Tommy John surgery in March. Rodriguez, meanwhile, is only now coming back from a bout with the coronavirus.
Factoring in Collin McHugh's opt out, Boston's rotation is basically Nathan Eovaldi and a bunch of question marks. Things aren't much rosier in the bullpen, which looks largely the same as the unit that had a blown saves problem in 2019.
Chicago Cubs: They Better Hope Their Luck Changes
5 of 30
2019 Record: 84-78
Why didn't the Chicago Cubs overhaul their roster over the winter? It might be because they calculated that what they had in 2019 was better than their results indicated.
Based on how many runs they scored and allowed, the Cubs should have won 90 games last season. By winning only 84, they were hypothetically the unluckiest team in the National League.
In this context, Chicago's roster arguably deserves a more positive outlook. It's also not as if the club is short on stars, particularly as far as its Kris Bryant-, Anthony Rizzo- and Javier Baez-led offense is concerned.
Yet there's also the reality that last year fit in a pattern of diminishing returns since the Cubs won the 2016 World Series. That they've made few major changes along the way perhaps should have been their cue to think more boldly about their direction for 2020 and beyond.
Chicago White Sox: They're Likely the 3rd-Best Team in the AL Central
6 of 30
2019 Record: 72-89
For the Chicago White Sox, 2020 could have been yet another rebuilding year in which they gradually integrated more young players to see what they're capable of.
Instead, they opted to force the issue during the winter. They boosted both their offense (Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion and Nomar Mazara) and pitching staff (Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez) with veteran talent, and even anointed top prospect Luis Robert as their center fielder by extending him.
Yet even despite all this, the White Sox are still an underdog in the AL Central.
Fresh off a 101-win season, the Minnesota Twins are surely the top dog in the division. Cleveland is no slouch in its own right after a fourth straight year of at least 90 wins in 2019. And if the White Sox can't overcome them for the division title, the AL wild-card race may be no more forgiving.
Cincinnati Reds: Their Defense Could Be a Problem
7 of 30
2019 Record: 75-87
Because of their star-studded starting rotation and their new-look offense, the Cincinnati Reds have a path to the top of the NL Central this year.
They must hope, however, that their defense doesn't trip them up.
Per defensive runs saved and outs above average, the Reds were an above-average defensive squad in 2019. But that was with defensive wiz Jose Iglesias at shortstop for much of the season, and he's gone now.
Out of what they have now, the Reds only have standout defenders at first base (Joey Votto) and catcher (Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali). Every other position could go either way, with potential problems at second base (Mike Moustakas) and right field (Nick Castellanos).
Cleveland: Francisco Lindor Is on Borrowed Time
8 of 30
2019 Record: 93-69
As it has for each of the last four seasons, Cleveland should contend for the AL Central title in 2020.
And yet the question that's been looming over the club for a while now still remains: When will Francisco Lindor be traded?
In the words of MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, such a trade indeed "feels inevitable" at this point. Though Cleveland has kinda-sorta tried to extend him, Lindor hasn't budged on his asking price, and he halted negotiations in March. Several months later, his date with free agency after 2021 is that much closer.
If Cleveland stumbles out of the gate, it may trade the four-time All-Star shortstop ahead of the August 31 trade deadline. If not, he may not last in Cleveland beyond this winter.
Colorado Rockies: Nolan Arenado May Also Be on Borrowed Time
9 of 30
2019 Record: 71-91
The Colorado Rockies set up star third baseman Nolan Arenado to be with them for life in February 2019, when they inked him to an eight-year, $260 million extension.
But less than a year later, the Rockies didn't make much of a secret of their willingness to listen to trade offers for Arenado during the winter. That didn't sit well with him, as he said at one point, "There's a lot of disrespect from people there that I don't want to be a part of."
Obviously, nothing happened and the Rockies don't have to be in a rush to accept an offer for Arenado. They're still ostensibly contenders, after all, and they have him signed all the way through 2026.
But if 2020 is anything like 2019 for them, Arenado might just find his way back to the block and, ultimately, out the door.
Detroit Tigers: It's a Lost Year for Many of Their Prospects, Too
10 of 30
2019 Record: 47-114
The Detroit Tigers are technically in the same boat as the Orioles, though a major difference between the two clubs is in how many prospects the Tigers are carrying in their 60-man player pool.
In said pool are most of the club's top 30 prospects as ranked by MLB.com. That's including all but one of its top-10 prospects and even its No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft, third baseman Spencer Torkelson.
Yet how many of these guys are actually ready to play in the majors is a different question. Right-handers Casey Mize and Matt Manning are two notable "yes" cases, but many of the others (including Torkelson) would be ticketed for a full year in the minors under ordinary circumstances.
So unless the Tigers rush these guys to The Show, they'll spend this season on the outside looking in.
Houston Astros: They Don't Have the AL's Best Rotation Anymore
11 of 30
2019 Record: 107-65
In 2019, the Houston Astros thrived on an outstanding offense that banged out the best weighted runs created plus by a team since the 1927 New York Yankees.
Yet their rotation was also an elite unit in its own right. Led by Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander and co-ace Gerrit Cole, Houston's rotation paced the American League in ERA, strikeouts per nine innings and fWAR.
But that was then. This is now, wherein the big difference is that the Astros no longer have Cole or Wade Miley behind Verlander.
What they've lost in that regard is greater than what they stand to gain from Zack Greinke, who's heading into his first "full" season in Houston. It'll thus be up to Lance McCullers Jr. (who hasn't pitched since 2018), Josh James, Framber Valdez and others to pick up the slack.
Kansas City Royals: A Return to Contention Is Likely Years Away
12 of 30
2019 Record: 59-103
The Kansas City Royals are hypothetically yet another rebuilder in the same boat as the Orioles and Tigers. What separates the Royals, however, is that half of their major league roster is actually quite enticing.
Specifically, their offense features one of the game's great sluggers (Jorge Soler) and three guys with exciting power/speed combinations (Whit Merrifield, Adalberto Mondesi and Franchy Cordero).
But while said offense should make the Royals watchable in 2020, there's likely no way they can contend with a pitching staff that hasn't improved much since posting a 5.20 ERA in 2019.
For that matter, the Royals might not be much closer to contention than Baltimore or Detroit despite what they have in the majors. Their farm system is only the 10th-best in baseball, and the best players in it (Bobby Witt Jr. and Asa Lacy) are likely years away from The Show.
Los Angeles Angels: They Don't Have a Playoff-Caliber Pitching Staff
13 of 30
2019 Record: 72-90
If you can't wait to watch the Los Angeles Angels' Mike Trout-, Anthony Rendon- and Shohei Ohtani-led offensive attack, raise your hand.
That looks like everyone, which is as it should be. But now for the less-awesome aspect of the Angels: Even if their offense gets them to October, their pitching staff might not get them much further.
Los Angeles' rotation has gotten better since it finished last year with a 5.64 ERA, specifically through Ohtani getting healthy and Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy being added over the winter. But at best, both the club's rotation and its bullpen project to only be "good enough" in support of the club's offense.
The challenge will only be heightened if and when the Angels make the postseason, wherein they would have to match up with the Verlanders, Greinkes, Coles, Mortons and Berrioses of the American League.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Their Pitching Staff Has Some Cracks
14 of 30
2019 Record: 106-56
The Los Angeles Dodgers are going into 2020 as the favorite to represent the National League in the World Series, if not to win the whole thing.
But this is assuming that their pitching doesn't let them down along the way.
What they have on the mound is far from bad, but it is easy to notice the absences of Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda and especially Hyun-Jin Ryu, who led the majors with a 2.32 ERA in 2019. Though he had his reasons for opting out, the hole left by David Price is also conspicuous.
The Dodgers also have some pitchers whose abilities have declined as their ages have increased. Namely, staff ace Clayton Kershaw and closer Kenley Jansen are now merely good after years of greatness.
Miami Marlins: Their Offense Is Better, Yet Still Very Bad
15 of 30
2019 Record: 57-105
Even though they're coming off a brutal 2019 season, the Miami Marlins have made enough progress with their rebuild that contention could be just around the corner.
They already have some exciting young arms in their rotation, and there's more where those came from in their fifth-ranked farm system. In particular, right-hander Sixto Sanchez could rise to the top of Miami's rotation as soon as this season.
Now, if only the Marlins had some bats.
They do have more bats after adding Jonathan Villar, Jesus Aguilar and Corey Dickerson over the winter. But they're only going to move the needle so much for an offense that scored an NL-low 3.8 runs per game in 2019, and there isn't an offensive equivalent to Sanchez who's ready to rescue Miami's lineup.
Milwaukee Brewers: Yasmani Grandal's Absence Looms Large
16 of 30
2019 Record: 89-73
The Milwaukee Brewers have made two straight postseasons, and they may well make it three in a row in 2020 if Christian Yelich and the club's assorted newcomers do their thing.
But of the many losses that occurred over the winter, few hurt as badly as when Yasmani Grandal left Milwaukee for Chicago.
He took with him an .848 OPS and 28 home runs, both of which are stellar numbers by catcher standards. Not to be overlooked is that the Brewers also lost one of the best strike-framers in the game.
To his credit, newcomer Omar Narvaez has a shot at replicating the offense that the Brewers got out of Grandal in 2019. It's a tall order, though, and framing is a department where Narvaez is well below average.
Minnesota Twins: They Can't Run Away with the AL Central This Year
17 of 30
2019 Record: 101-61
In the process of hitting a record 307 home runs and winning 101 games in 2019, the Minnesota Twins were never really in danger of losing the AL Central race.
Seriously. They slipped into second place on April 18, but after that they had at least a share of first place for every one of their final 146 games.
Could the Twins dominate the division to that degree again in 2019? Well, simply by nature of the shortened season, obviously not. Even beyond that, they're not staring down a proverbial walk in the park.
Cleveland and the White Sox both have the talent to push the Twins this year. And while they don't have to worry about the AL West and AL East, their schedule against NL Central clubs will put them up against four more contenders in Chicago, Cincinnati, Milwaukee and St. Louis.
New York Mets: Noah Syndergaard's Absence Looms Large
18 of 30
2019 Record: 86-76
At the outset of this year, the New York Mets looked like an obvious contender on account of their deep offense and their three-headed rotation dragon of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman.
But in March, Syndergaard was suddenly removed from that equation when he went in for Tommy John surgery. He won't be back until 2021.
Though "Thor" only pitched to a 4.28 ERA in 2019, he still aided the Mets with 197.2 innings and 202 strikeouts. Considering that he pitched through some bad luck, he projected to help them even more in 2020.
Without him, the Mets must hope that newcomer Michael Wacha can come close to providing what Syndergaard would have. He might if he has one of his good seasons, but such things have been elusive throughout his career.
New York Yankees: Their Fate Depends on Their Health
19 of 30
2019 Record: 103-59
There's a lot to like about the 2020 New York Yankees. So much so, in fact, that it's really not hard to make a case for them as the overall favorite to win the World Series.
But what if they can't stay healthy?
It's a fair question on a number of grounds, the most pressing of which is that this is largely still the same team that racked up more injured list days than any other team in 2019. It wasn't close, either.
Sluggers Aaron Judge (neck) and Giancarlo Stanton (calf) have already had injury scares this year after being banged up for much of last season. Most recently, the Yankees' summer camp has been disrupted by Masahiro Tanaka's concussion and Aroldis Chapman's coronavirus diagnosis.
Oakland Athletics: They'll Be in Trouble If Their Rookies Don't Come Through
20 of 30
2019 Record: 97-65
In a normal season, the Oakland Athletics would be a candidate for a third straight season of at least 97 wins.
They have an excellent lineup anchored by legit superstars in Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson, plus a pitching staff that's loaded with variety. To their credit, the A's are also trusting catcher Sean Murphy and left-handers Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk to make big impacts as rookies in 2020.
Yet there's a non-zero chance that this trust will backfire. Puk has already come down with a shoulder strain. Luzardo has a checkered injury history of his own. Murphy has relatively few red flags, but his major league experience consists of just 20 games.
If Oakland's key rookies indeed flop, the club's chances to win the AL West or even land a wild-card spot will be dealt a blow.
Philadelphia Phillies: They're Probably the 4th-Best Team in the NL East
21 of 30
2019 Record: 81-81
The Philadelphia Phillies have spent the last several years trying to get back to October. If all goes well, that effort will finally pay off in 2020.
In the spirit of their previous deals with Jake Arrieta and Bryce Harper, the Phillies used free agency to add Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius over the winter. They also swapped out Gabe Kapler for Joe Girardi in the manager's chair, which is a substantial upgrade in theory.
Yet the Phillies' upside comes paired with real downside. Even if Harper punctuates a dangerous offense, the club could very well be tripped up by its iffy pitching depth after Wheeler, Arrieta and Aaron Nola.
On paper, the Phillies look like the fourth-best team in the NL East after Atlanta, Washington and New York. If that's how things pan out, it'll be another postseason-less October in Philly.
Pittsburgh Pirates: They'll Only Contend If Everything Goes Right
22 of 30
2019 Record: 69-93
A year after pretty much everything went wrong for them, the Pittsburgh Pirates can only surprise people in 2020.
There are some good pieces on this Pirates squad—especially the offensive duo of Josh Bell and Bryan Reynolds—and everyone who was part of a toxic clubhouse in 2019 is getting a chance to start fresh under new manager Derek Shelton.
Yet there isn't much question that the Pirates will need literally everything to go right to contend this year. Despite their good pieces, they also have serious shortcomings in both their Starling Marte-less offense and their Chris Archer-less pitching staff.
In all likelihood, this season will end with the Pirates back in the NL Central cellar.
San Diego Padres: Much Depends on Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer
23 of 30
2019 Record: 70-92
Don't look now, but the San Diego Padres are projected by FanGraphs to finish second in the NL West.
There's loads of talent on the Padres' roster—especially in the club's frankly intimidating bullpen—and it perhaps bodes well that they haven't yet gotten their money's worth out of Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer.
To wit, 2019 was their first year as teammates and it resulted in good power (i.e., 54 home runs) but only 2.4 combined rWAR. And 2.6 of that came from Machado.
Yet there's also a worst-case scenario here in which neither Machado nor Hosmer improves in 2020. The latter has been a bad-to-mediocre player more often than not, while the former has dabbled in his own mediocrity in two of the last three seasons. Maybe that's just who they are now.
San Francisco Giants: They're the NL's Least Interesting Team
24 of 30
2019 Record: 77-85
What are the San Francisco Giants even doing?
With their last postseason berth now four years in the rearview mirror, they're technically rebuilding. However, their general refusal to go all-in on the process has resulted in slow growth of their farm system while their talent at the major league level has gradually wilted.
Even before longtime catcher Buster Posey opted out of playing this year, the Giants looked like the worst team in at least the NL West. And while they might spice things up by putting top prospect Joey Bart in his place, it doesn't seem like that's going to happen any time soon.
As a result, the Giants look like a non-contender that doesn't even have much in the way of rooting interest.
Seattle Mariners: No Jarred Kelenic, No Chance
25 of 30
2019 Record: 68-94
Contrary to the Giants, the Seattle Mariners gladly embraced a rebuild after the 2018 season and have done such a good job with it that a return to contention this year isn't entirely out of the question.
It's a long shot, of course, but the most hopeful scenario is one in which Jarred Kelenic joins an already promising youth movement. He's a super-prospect whose recent feats include an excellent 2019 season in the minors and some notable highlights in summer camp.
Trouble is, Kelenic is only 21, and his experience in the high minors consists of only 21 games at the Double-A level. And from the sound of things, the Mariners really don't want to rush his timetable.
In fairness to them, there's plenty of logic at work there. But if they do indeed keep Kelenic out of the majors this year, they'll be depriving themselves of a potentially game-changing spark.
St. Louis Cardinals: They Have the Same Flaws They Did in 2019
26 of 30
2019 Record: 91-71
Though the St. Louis Cardinals finished atop the NL Central last year, getting there wasn't easy.
It wasn't until the final day of the regular season that the Cards finally clinched the division, and the biggest problem they had to that point was ultimately their undoing in the National League Championship Series. Offensively, they just couldn't compete with the big boys.
Rather than address that over the winter, the Cardinals let Marcell Ozuna walk as a free agent and only added Brad Miller to their bench. Similar to the Cubs, they're betting on their incumbents having better seasons in 2020.
If that doesn't pan out, the club's pitching may not be able to come to the rescue. After Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson, their rotation is marked by questions relating to age and present ability levels.
Tampa Bay Rays: If It Comes to It, They Can't Win a Slugfest
27 of 30
2019 Record: 96-66
With loads of depth on both sides of the ball, the Tampa Bay Rays look like a sneaky candidate to not only win the AL East, but perhaps even to advance to their first World Series since 2008.
But if there's one thing that could trip them up, it's their inferior collection of power hitters.
To be sure, the Rays do have more power now than they did in 2019, in which they hit only 217 home runs. Specifically, newcomers Hunter Renfroe and Yoshi Tsutsugo would both be 30-homer candidates in a regular year.
However, the Rays simply aren't an offensive juggernaut when compared to the Twins, Yankees, Astros, A's and even the Angels. Even if they make it there, that could be their downfall in the postseason.
Texas Rangers: Their Rotation Might Not Be That Good in Real Life
28 of 30
2019 Record: 78-84
If the Texas Rangers make the postseason this year, it'll probably be on the strength of their starting rotation above all.
Mike Minor and Lance Lynn were two of the best starters in the majors last year, and they're now joined by two-time Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles. From top to bottom, those five are arguably as good as it gets.
However, Minor and Lynn might be ripe for a return to earth in 2020. Kluber is no sure thing in his own right after putting up a 5.80 ERA in only seven starts last season. Gibson also had a rough campaign, and Lyles' breakout was all in just 11 starts with Milwaukee.
If the downside of the Rangers' rotation materializes, a return to October will elude them.
Toronto Blue Jays: This Year Likely Won't Be 'Their' Year
29 of 30
2019 Record: 67-95
The Toronto Blue Jays are undoubtedly the top dark-horse contender in the American League.
If they do contend this year, it'll be because Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio built on their promising 2019 breakthroughs and because newcomer ace Hyun-Jin Ryu lived up to his billing. Such possibilities aren't exactly beyond the pale.
But even if Guerrero, Bichette and Biggio do break out, there's still the question of whether there's enough depth around them. Likewise, Toronto's pitching is suspect underneath Ryu.
This isn't even to mention that the Blue Jays share a division with two juggernauts in New York and Tampa Bay, and will also have to tango with four contenders from the NL East. Add it all up, and you get pretty long playoff odds.
Washington Nationals: Anthony Rendon's Absence Looms Large
30 of 30
2019 Record: 93-69
After winning the World Series in 2019, the Washington Nationals did well to retain some core stars (especially Stephen Strasburg) while adding as needed in other areas.
They couldn't, however, hang on to Anthony Rendon.
Nobody did more to drive their championship offense than he did, as he had a 1.010 OPS and 34 home runs in the regular season and three huge home runs in the playoffs. Traditionally, he's also played a mean third base.
Evidently taking a cue from Atlanta, the Nats eschewed replacing Rendon with a comparable star and instead fit top prospect Carter Kieboom for his vacated shoes. It's not a bad idea, but asking Kieboom to play the role of Rendon as soon as this year is asking a lot.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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