Liver's 2009 NFL Week Ten Picks

Just to let all of my faithful constituents know; the Liver picks for the rest of the season will be coming in either late Fridays, or early Saturdays. The picks have been good this year, but even the Liver needs a third job in this shitty California economy.

I suppose I can KIND OF understand where the NFL got off fining Ochocinco for his attempted "bribe" of an official with a $1 bill over the weekend, but $20,000? And Tommie Harris only gets fined $7,500 for punching Cardinals offensive lineman Deuce Lutui last weekend? Great double standard there Roger Goodell and Ray Anderson.

Of course, it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY . Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Braylon Edwards, Bob Griese, Miguel Cabrera, Tila Tequila, Steve Phillips, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, Elizabeth Lambert, Richard Heene (a.k.a. Balloon Boy’s father), the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World), and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 10-3

2009 record against the spread: 81-47-1 (.627) 

Sunday, November 15

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (minus-7)

Yes, the Steelers looked dominant against a Broncos team that we can all say now has been exposed by bullish defenses that smack them around, and jam their receivers while laying back and saying, “Please throw on us Kyle Orton.” This Bengals team also beat the Steelers earlier in the season. Yes, I know there was no Troy Polamalu, and he clearly makes a difference on that defense.

Bengals win this game, and they are in total control of the AFC North, and 4-0 against the Steelers and Ravens. If the Cedric Benson that’s shown up this season continues his play here, the Bengals will be in position to win, granted they don’t play into the hands of this Steelers defense.

Hard to bet against the Steelers winning a game like this at home, but I think the Bengals keep this one under the seven. Meanwhile, watch as Ochocinco whips out a rare $2 bill while blowing his nose on the sideline, and gets fined $40,000 next week.

Pick: Cincinnati

Denver at Washington (plus-3.5)

The love affair is over for Denver, as has been demonstrated over the last two weeks. Punch them in the mouth and dare Kyle Orton to throw on you. And the Cowboys lost to THAT TEAM ? Meanwhile, Washington’s season goes from bad to worse as Redskins fans demand Daniel Snyder’s head on a stick.

Pick: Denver

Buffalo at Tennessee (minus-7)

Not a pretty game to watch, but Vince Young is back and that means the Titans are competitive and more often then not, will have a chance to win. He doesn’t have great numbers, but he wins more then he loses.

Pick: Tennessee

Atlanta at Carolina (plus-1.5)

Carolina has been running the ball well, yet still pissed away a win against the Saints last weekend. If Jake Delhomme can take care of the ball, they can put a scare into some teams. Atlanta needs to get on a win streak if they hope to get a wild card spot. Michael Turner needs to keep running the ball well for Matt Ryan to cut down on his picks.

Pick: Atlanta

Detroit at Minnesota (minus-16.5)

Damn that’s a lot of points, but have you seen Matt Stafford lately?

Pick: Minnesota

Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (minus-7)

So Jacksonville is 4-4? Go figure. The Jets come off their bye and need to get back to their early season form when their defense was mauling people. That defense, however, is beat up, and may have peaked a little early.

Pick: Jacksonville

Tampa Bay at Miami (minus-9.5)

Thank you very F***ING much Tampa for ruining my weekend. True, I only lost three games last weekend, but that Tampa Bay/Green Bay game was a lock dammit! Now I suppose we should call him the great Josh Freeman?

Miami played well against the Patriots, but lost to the better team. They’re not a bad team despite the 3-5 record. Bottom line is, Miami runs the ball extremely well and Tampa Bay couldn’t stop (insert name of any dead relative, or celebrity you like here).

Pick: Miami

New Orleans at St. Louis (plus-13.5)

Just what I love to see; another insanely high line. Just call me Mr. Chalk this weekend.

Pick: New Orleans

Kansas City at Oakland (minus-2)

Not even the fans of these teams want to watch this crap. And Oakland is favored? This could quite possibly the worst game played in the NFL this season until Week 16 when Oakland plays Cleveland.

When describing how I felt about picking the Thursday night “thriller” between Chicago and San Francisco, I used the words of Sheriff Kimbel in Young Guns II when asked to go after Billy the Kid, "I'd rather drink turpentine and piss on a brushfire.” It goes DOUBLE here. I HATE PICKING THIS GAME .

Pick: Kansas City

Philadelphia at San Diego (minus-1)

After last week’s Sunday night game, I think Andy Reid made Wade Phillips look like a Rhodes Scholar when it came to clock management and challenges. Now I know why so many Filthy fans are convinced they’ll never win a Super Bowl with him as head coach. San Diego can score with anyone in the league right now, and their defense made some key stops last week against the Giants.

Pick: San Diego

Dallas at Green Bay (plus-3)

This is an excellent opportunity, as is the rest of the month for the Cowboys to put some real distance between them, and the Eagles in the NFC East race. This is the season for the Packers.  I just don’t think they are a good team, which last week’s loss to Tampa Bay made painfully clear. Their offensive line sucks, Aaron Rodgers gives up too many bad sacks, and their defense can’t contain anyone good. Aaron Kampman is also probably out with a concussion. There’s simply no excuse for the Cowboys not to be 9-2 at the end of this month with Washington and Oakland waiting.

Pick: Dallas

Seattle at Arizona (minus-9)

Why is it Arizona plays better on the road then at home? If they can’t beat this sad sack of a Seattle team, they don’t deserve to win that shitty NFC West division. Wait a minute; come to think of it, NO ONE DESERVES TO WIN THAT SHITTY DIVISION .

Pick: Arizona

New England at Indianapolis (-3)

Yeah, this might be an important game to watch. Outside of Steelers-Bengals, this is the game to watch this Sunday. The best test for either of these teams so far this year with the winner likely rolling to the AFC Championship. I just think the Patriots are the healthier, better team right now.

The Colts are banged up, especially in the secondary, and it showed against the Texans last week. If any team is going to exploit their injuries, it has to be the Patriots. Then again, Peyton Manning doesn’t lose often in night games. Another tough call here.

Pick: New England

Monday, November 16

Baltimore at Cleveland (+10 ½)

Couldn’t ESPN rerun an old NFL Draft instead of this? They might actually get some people to watch. I think it’s safe to say that this Browns team has completely revolted against Eric Mangini, AND HE’S HALFWAY THROUGH HIS FIRST SEASON . Anyone want to take odds he’s fired after the Browns season finale? God I can't wait for that Oakland/Cleveland thriller in Week 16.

Pick: Baltimore