Charley Casserly 2020 NFL Mock Draft 3.0: Justin Herbert Falls out of Top 15

It's possible, if not likely, one of the top three quarterbacks in the 2020 draft winds up free-falling Thursday night. 

Former NFL general manager Charley Casserly is betting on it being Justin Herbert. The NFL Network analyst released his final mock draft Thursday morning, which sees Herbert falling all the way to No. 18 to the Miami Dolphins.

Herbert could be in play as early as No. 5 to the Dolphins. In his mock, Casserly has Miami trading up to No. 3 not for a quarterback but instead for offensive tackle Andrew Thomas.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the Dolphins have called the Cincinnati Bengals several times in recent weeks to inquire about moving up to No. 1 overall. The Bengals have rebuffed those calls, but it's perhaps the best evidence that Miami is more sold on Joe Burrow than either Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa.

Herbert is the ideal modern quarterback from a physical standpoint, at 6'6" and 236 pounds with above-average speed and massive arm talent. If teams are looking for the best physical comp to Patrick Mahomes in this class, it's potentially Herbert. But despite his prodigious talent, Herbert's Oregon teams largely underperformed, and there have been questions about his leadership dating all the way back to 2017.

The concerns about Herbert could be to do with his introverted nature rather than about a lack of ability to lead. However, all it takes is some smoke to force a guy down the draft board. We've seen countless talented players drop far below their stock, only to be scooped up late in the round by an enterprising team.

If Herbert's on the board at No. 18 and the Dolphins don't take Tagovailoa at No. 5, it would be a genuine shock if they didn't roll the dice on the Oregon product. Even if he winds up disappointing, the opportunity cost would make it well worth the risk.